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Andrew Prokop Profile picture
@awprokop
Aug 23, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Gavin Newsom needs to win a majority vote to stay in office.

If he doesn't get that, somebody else can win the governorship with a small plurality.

Weird design!

vox.com/22617048/calif…
Newsom couldn't put his name up as a replacement candidate.

So his team is urging Dem voters to leave the replacement question blank.

But if Newsom loses the recall vote, and Ds have abstained from replacement vote, easier for a conservative R to win

vox.com/22617048/calif…
Urging Dem voters to abstain from the replacement question is self-interested strategy (Newsom wants to frame the choice as between him and a Republican).

But the replacement vote only matters *if* Newsom loses the recall vote. Picking a replacement candidate doesn't hurt Newsom
The CA recall has big implications for the state and its pandemic response (though the governor's office will be on the ballot again in 2022), but also a potential national implication, considering the US Senate is 50-50 & Sen. Feinstein is 88 years old

vox.com/22617048/calif…
To be clear I think state Democrats have rationally pursued the strategy that maximizes Newsom's chances of winning. But that comes at the cost of having a Plan B in case he doesn't win.

Was there a superior strategy that would have maximized the chances of "keeping a Democrat as CA's governor, whether it's Newsom or not Newsom?"

Not sure. It didn't work in 2003. But that was a different election, with different dynamics at play.

kqed.org/news/11870960/…
Will partisan dynamics reassert themselves in CA, and save Newsom? Certainly possible.

But can't be taken for granted. Weird things can happen in oddly-timed elections, even in "safe" states. Ask Scott Brown, or Doug Jones.

vox.com/22617048/calif…

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More from @awprokop

Andrew Prokop Profile picture
Feb 3
Key source of Musk’s power in government: he seems to have the ability to put career staffers who resist his team on administrative leave.

Essentially, bulldozing over whoever defies him Image
wsj.com/politics/polic…
Whether this use of administrative leave is actually legal seems like an important question.
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
Nov 20, 2024
A key reason Biden blundered on inflation is that there was an effective, well-funded, years-long effort to sideline mainstream economists — the people most inclined to warn about inflation— from Democratic policymaking.

So by 2021 no one on his team took the threat seriously
So far as we know, the only Biden official who internally expressed concerns that the American Rescue Plan might be too big was Joe Biden (whose reasoning was, “seems too big to pass”). But when Schumer told him it wasn’t too big to pass he went along. Image
Was there an internal debate in which some key appointees said “I don’t know, Mr. President, seems a lot bigger than the output gap merits, could be real inflationary risks”?

If there was, word of it has never leaked.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
Jul 13, 2024
Here’s how I think about Project 2025’s policies - in 3 groups.

1.) Centralizing presidential authority over the executive branch
2.) Longtime conservative priorities
3.) A very aggressive religious right agenda, especially on abortion
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The Heritage Foundation has been doing Project 2025-esque stuff for decades but there are some different dynamics this cycle due to Trump’s close ties with Heritage, and his own former appointees lying in wait to return to office and correct his first term mistakes

Image
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That’s particularly evident in the Project’s focus on amping up the number and power of political appointees (relative to career civil servants) throughout the executive branch, especially at the Justice Department
Image
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Read 7 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
Mar 20, 2023
The tangled, nearly 7-year saga of the Stormy Daniels hush money scandal and investigations that has resulted in Trump now being on the verge of indictment, explained

vox.com/policy-and-pol…
THE PAYOFF: The month before the 2016 election, Stormy Daniels prepared to come forward alleging a consensual sexual encounter with Trump 10 years prior — but let it be known she'd accept payment for her silent.

Michael Cohen sent the payment, $130,000, on October 27, 2016. Image
INVESTIGATION 1 (FEDS): When SDNY prosecutors investigated Cohen, they argued the $130,000 payment violated federal campaign finance laws, since it was meant to help Trump win the election.

Cohen pleaded guilty to this and other charges. But the theory was never tested in court Image
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
Mar 17, 2023
Hunter Biden has filed a countersuit against the computer repair store owner who provided his emails and files to Trump allies.

It's interesting to look very closely at which claims Hunter explicitly denies and which he claims not to have knowledge sufficient to confirm or deny
Hunter denies he was referred to the repair store.

Hunter says he lacks the knowledge to confirm or deny whether he asked the repairman to recover info from damaged computers and whether he himself returned to the shop the next day
So this is not an outright denial that Hunter dropped his laptops off at the repair store. Instead it seems to point to a "I don't remember" (implicitly: "I was too wasted" defense)
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
Mar 16, 2023
This seems in very poor taste to me.

Its roots however go back much further than the Great Awokening!

The first version of this exercise I can find online is from the year 1998 (thread cont'd)
Here we have the same exercise, "Whom to Leave Behind," but with different identities. Race is only explicitly mentioned for one person on the list. It's dated 1998 at the bottom.

home.snu.edu/~jsmith/librar…
The version with the rather absurd identities list shows up in a "Diversity Activities" packet uploaded in 2015.

The only instructions given are to talk about it. It seems like a kinda ridiculous, Michael Scott-esque poor taste team-building exercise

solarev.org/migration/wp-c…
Read 5 tweets

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