Hi, shall we continue with Thailand structural trade? The baht has weakened a lot (-9%ytd) on what I can only call lack of good news, from Covid suppression to politics. Growth downwardly revised many times. That said, Thailand is turning the corner as it's changing strategy.
Thailand cases peaking & yesterday the gov announced that it will start easing some measures, meaning it is exiting ZeroCovid strategy even if vaccination is low.
Some good news on vaccines - it will likely acquire enough to finish by end 2021, still ways to go but end in sight
Thailand exports haven't risen much over the years as it focused more on tourism, a big mistake because tourism also very dependent on Chinese tourists that are not leaving China anytime soon.
While stagnated, still key in electronics + autos + agri.
This is a legacy of good FDI policy in the past (investment has been stagnating not just for foreign investors but also domestic Thai as they seek offshore for better return given low growth + unfavorable environment). #1 item is data processing to China & #2 is semiconductor
Thailand is linked to Japan b/c of FDI, especially in autos. Note that it's key for tires, auto parts, & autos themselves, with Japan most linked in Thailand, although China too for some key items and also somewhat SK + US. In non-manu, Thailand key for rice, rubber, fish, fruits
Who's most exposed to disruptions to Thailand? Well, by country that is China, US, EU and Japan. But we all know that country level analysis isn't precise as at a sectoral level, Japan is much more exposed for sectors such as autos. Thai weather matters too for global agri prices
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