8/29 Texas Case & Hosp abbreviated update:
THREAD:
1) Cases again plummet vs last week, peak easily 8/22
2) Hospitalizations drop 178 vs yesterday!
3) 8/31 peak prediction is likely to come in as it sits right now.
1/n
.
8/29 Cases:
* 2.8K reported today vs 11.4K last week. Like I said yesterday 11.4K wasn't happening
* 7DMA WoW rate of decline of 18%
* Comps are almost immaterial now. Cases tomorrow would need to be 22K, the wave high, for 7DMA to beat the 8/22 peak. Nope.
2/n
.
8/29 Hospitalizations
* Down 178 Beds vs yesterday. Last Sun was +155
* Down 371 past 4 days
* 7DMA WoW RoG drops 1.4% to 9.0%
* Hospital intake rises on Mon & Tues so we will watch for size of increases. 8/31 peak right now likely makes
* Rest of story in the morning
3/n
.
8/29 - Regional Hospitalization Analysis
* As expected with the state numbers in decline the past 4 days, most of the regions in Texas are cooling off rapidly.
* 4 charts for the 4 big Metros, the Lower Rio Grande Valley/Corpus and the Panhandle
4/n
.
8/29 - Rate of Growth
* Case rate of growth in the 14DMA based average at 1.1%. 7DMA in decline (2/n)
* Testing is still going nuts, but more & more of the positive tests are being reported as probables, instead of confirmed cases. Lower pos%, more asymptomatics...
5/n
.
8/29 - Fatalities Part 1
* 25.2% fewer actual fatalities so far, than the 2020 Summer wave. Through Day 49. Which was 3 weeks ago. ( 2 waves 13 months apart...see 3/n)
6/n
.
8/29 Fatalities Part 2:
* 120 Reported. +54 over last Sat
* 80% from the last 2 weeks
* With hospitalizations in peak, we've got 2 really tough weeks of reported fatalities coming before that peaks & cools off. In the 300+, possibly 400+ range next 2 Tue-Sat. Hang on.
7/n
.
8/29 - Fatality primer
8/n
.
8/29 - Conclusion:
* This wave has peaked
* #Seasonality
* Not Masks, social distancing, remote school, vaccines
* Texas has been nearly 100% open since February
* Analysts that were paying attention knew this wave was coming. Just didn't think it would be quite this big
9/end
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