Minnesota’s current #COVID19 wave continues to limp along, now into its 8th week. No peak yet (though also no shift yet back to explosive growth):
By this point in our past three waves, positivity growth had already started to decline, (and we were in each case on the verge of a moderate but temporary backsliding):
Confirmed cases by age are all just below the Spring 2021 peaks — with the exception of seniors, who are considerably higher.
This highly vaccinated group was barely affected by the spring wave, but delta seems different.
Positivity rate had been showing sharply slowing growth, but over the past week or two this has largely ended; it has instead been growing at a fixed rate.
Which, definitionally, could be better and could be worse. (You’d probably prefer more improvement pre-Fair, though.)
New first doses continue to slide back downward after an August mini-bump.
Tomorrow is the day to watch. That’s when we get the dump of three days of data from the weekend.
The last two Tuesdays have both been bad, with lots of new cases & high positivity. Will tomorrow break the trend?
The upside of the last two Tuesdays being bad is that if tomorrow ISN’T, that could make the numbers look really good. If that happens, we’ll of course want to wait a few days before coming to any conclusions (other than that it’s better for each individual day to be good).
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