David H. Montgomery Profile picture
"A French history podcaster and enormous goshdang nerd after our own hearts" — @andrewvandam. Host of @thesiecle; senior data journalist with @YouGovAmerica.

Aug 31, 2021, 11 tweets

No peak yet to Minnesota’s #COVID19 wave — but no escalation, either. Just hovering barely above flat. Our current positivity rate of 5.6% is just slightly above the 5.2% two weeks ago and flat week-over-week.

This is the slowest Minnesota’s positivity rate has been growing since the earliest days of this current wave.

With lag times for infection, and then testing and reporting, the earliest a State Fair bump would probably show up in the data would probably be next week.

It’s not *good*, but it definitely could be a LOT worse!

South Dakota currently has a higher rate of confirmed cases per capita than Missouri. Minnesota has the lowest rate in the region (though still rising, like its neighbors).

Except for children (where cases have consistently been much less likely to be confirmed) current case rates in Minnesota go down with every age bracket you go up.

Vaccination rates rise the older you get.

Overall nearly 75% of Minnesotans over 18 now have at least one dose.

You’d think that would be a good idea, wouldn’t you? Alas, this is all the data we have.

The rate of NEW first-dose vaccinations, however, is falling steadily. No sign of a boost from employer mandates at the moment…

My guess is the vaccination bump we had in August was primarily teens getting innoculated before the start of school.

The positivity rate for PCR tests in Minnesota continues to rise steadily while the positivity rate for antigen tests is falling gradually. A few plausible explanations (home tests? Only PCR consistently detecting milder cases in kids/vaxxed folks?), but still puzzling.

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