Thread by @T_TimeForce

There's a lot to take away from Oregon Democrats' preliminary redistricting plan. Among its biggest changes is a new U.S. House seat for Oregon in Congress. #orleg

It may not radically reshape partisan politics in Oregon, but it could shake things up for incumbents: a thread

Oregon's grown a lot in the past decade or about 10% in the time since the past 2010 Census.

Each U.S. House District must have around 706,209 ppl based on Oregon's 4,237,256 people per the 2020 U.S. Census.

Districts must be contiguous or share a common border. They must also be equal in population.

There's some rules that also require them to respect existing political boundaries and communities defined by various criteria, including race.

More on the drama that led up to this moment thanks to snafus with the U.S. Census Bureau data.

thecentersquare.com/oregon/oregon-…

Oregon's redistricting process sees the majority political party in the state legislature redrawing districts.

In 2021, that means Oregon Democrats will hold the pen for the most part this year. Although it is more complex in the House this time around.

thecentersquare.com/oregon/oregon-…

First up is U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz, the lone Republican in Oregon's congressional delegation, representing House District 2.

The vast rural region has seen its population decline since 2010. As a result, it's poised to creep into Western Oregon.

The Oregon Legislature's "Plan A" (right) would see Bentz represent a much greater share of Josephine and Douglas Counties than he does today.

Republicans and non-affiliated swing voters vastly outnumber Democrats in both.

"Plan B" (right) would move most of Bentz's district out of Josephine County and into Wasco County where Dems, Republicans and non-affiliated voters are almost equally matched.

Even these small changes would be highly unlikely to unseat Bentz, who remains very popular in District 2, a GOP stronghold for generations.

I can't say that my U.S. Rep, Democrat Kurt Schrader, will have as easy of a time come the midterms if District 5 is rearranged.

Schrader is consistently viewed as a very conservative Democrat who's won reelection by competitive margins in the past.

As you can see in the pic to the left, Schrader's District 5 is a mess of coastal, rural and urban regions spanning from the Pacific to the Cascades.

Plan A would confine most of District 5 to Linn, Marion and Clackamas Counties.

That all means Schrader's new District 5 would pick up Democratic votes in Oregon City and Lake Oswego, have more Republican competition in Linn County and lose swing cities like Salem.

Plan B would see Schrader retain much of his district as it exists now, including Salem, save for anything east of Marion County.

Overall, both plans will see Schrader campaign in some very competitive territory.

One big difference is Plan A would see him compete for the same number of votes in fewer big cities.

Plan B would see him campaign in more small cities that aren't Salem.

Now, onto U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio's District 4. DeFazio is Oregon's longest serving Democrat and a major force in the House's progressive wing.

DeFazio's District 4 spans the Willamette Valley, college towns like Eugene down to GOP territory like Roseburg.

Plan A would be doing him a favor politically by cutting out most of the GOP parts of the Willamette Valley and concentrating D5 in Eugene and the liberal coast.

By contrast, Plan B would see DeFazio represent vast swaths of Douglas and Josephine Counties where GOP support is considerably stronger.

Plan B is also the plan that puts slightly more pressure on Bentz's D2.

DeFazio has enjoyed rosy approval ratings for a long time in D5 and been reelected by strong margins.

He did fend off his first serious opponent in a generation in 2020 and won by 5 points.

As for popular Oregon Democrats, let's talk about U.S. Rep. Susan Bonamici, who serves the state's District 1.

It's basically Oregon's number 1 liberal bastion. Today, it includes much of the northern coast and West Portland.

Bonamici, who was involved with redistricting process herself as an Oregon state senator in 2010, represents a huge swath of Northwestern Oregon, including beach towns on the coast and West Portland.

Plan A would see her district get bluer by cutting out Yamhill County.

Plan B would paint D1 even bluer still, shrinking it down to what's basically just Washington County and West Portland.

Ok, let's look at District 3, represented by U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer, the Oregon Democrat across the river from Bonamici in East Portland.

Right now, Blumenaeur's district is East Portland plus a handful of very small rural towns like Boring, Sandy.

Plan A would see his district inch further into Jefferson and Wasco Counties, inviting a *few* more Republicans into D3.

Plan B would see Blumenauer represent East Portland almost exclusively, cutting off almost all rural counties entirely.

It would make D3 the smallest district by land mass in Oregon and like D1, among the most liberal.

There seem to be two philosophies behind Plan A and B.

Plan A would make life easier for more rural Democrats down south. Plan B would tighten urban Democrats' grip up north.

And the soon-to-be District 6? Looks like it's going to be something of a swing district either way.