Thread by @CORF_FPL

📝 A GW4 THREAD

🔎 GW3
📸 Snapshot
🍕 Takeaway

🔎 GW4
🎯 Fixtures to Target
©️ Captaincy
🔮 Predictions
📈 Differentials
🔥 Hot Property
🗑️ Top Binned
🚌 Bus Team
⚖️ Balance Tool

A thread built to provoke initial food for thought..

#FPL #FPLCommunity #GW4

📸 GW3 SNAPSHOT - TEAMS
➡️ Defence

Games: 10
Clean Sheets: 4

Most Shots Conceded
1. ARS - 25
2. CHE - 23
3. NEW - 22

Least Shots Conceded
20. MCI - 1
19. LIV - 6
18. BRE - 7

Most Big Chances Conceded
1. ARS - 6
2. NEW - 4

➡️ @FFH_HQ

📸 GW3 SNAPSHOT - TEAMS
➡️ Attack

Games: 10
Goals: 26

Most Shots
1. MCI - 25
2. LIV - 23
3. SOU - 22

Least Shots
20. ARS - 1
19. CHE - 6
18. AVL - 7

Most Big Chances
1. MCI - 6
2. SOU - 4

Least Big Chances
20. 6x Teams - 0

Top xG
1. MCI - 3.85
2. SOU - 2.82
3. LIV - 2.76

📸 GW3 SNAPSHOT - PLAYERS

Most Points
1. Torres - 18
2. Gallagher - 15
3. Vardy, Varane, Jesus - 12

Top xG
1. Pukki - 1.19
2. Elyounoussi - 1.13
3. Sterling - 0.99

Top xA
1. Mahrez - 1.28
2. Antonio - 0.74

Most Big Chances Created
1. Mahrez - 3

🍕 GW3 TAKEAWAYS

🍖 ARS's attitudes were embarrassing, MCI let them off as it could have been a cricket score.

🍟 WOL were great vs MUN but just couldn't get a goal. They didn't deserve to lose this game.

🍔 CHE were in total charge until the red card/penalty decision vs LIV

🔎 LOW OWNED EYE CATCHERS

🧐 Another GW another goal from EVE's Gray - 5.1%

🧐 In the shadows of Benrahma & Antonio but yet another return for Fornals - 2.0%

🧐 SOU midfielder Elyounoussi with 3 shots, all in the box, 2nd highest xG of the GW with a well taken goal - 0.1%

🗒️ WELCOME TO GW4

⏰ DEADLINE:
Sat 11th September @ 11am (UK)

📆 FIXTURES:

➡️ Saturday
CRY vs TOT
ARS vs NOR
BRE vs BHA
LEI vs MCI
MUN vs NEW
SOU vs WHU
WAT vs WOL
CHE vs AVL

➡️ Sunday
LEE vs LIV

➡️ Monday
EVE vs BUR

Up to date league table ⤵️

✈️ INTERNATIONAL BREAK

As always this thread is built to initiate early food for thought, ideally I'd wait until the IB is over before releasing but that only leaves a couple of days

Keep an eye out for injuries & hold off making your FT's until as late as possible!

🎯 FIXTURE TO TARGET
➡️ MUN vs NEW

In the opening 3 GWs NEW have conceded 8 goals & 50 shots (17th), 30 of which were in the box (16th). Whilst MUN had an off day vs WOL I'm expecting 3 points in a comfortable home win as OGS shows off his new look attack!

4-1 United

🎯 FIXTURE TO TARGET
➡️ CHE vs AVL

I'm also anticipating CHE to grab a comfortable home win vs a AVL defence that will be missing Martinez & Mings. CHE have looked fantastic at the back under Tuchel so really couldn't put it past them getting another clean sheet.

2-0 Chelsea

©️ CAPTAINCY
➡️ Ronaldo

Fully expecting Ronaldo to start in GW4 against a NEW team that give up a lot of shots in the box (30-16th). When he's on any pitch you just cannot overlook him and, it would just be so like him to smash a monster haul on his return to Old Trafford! FOMO?

©️ CAPTAINCY
➡️ Lukaku

Tread carefully, whilst writing this GW thread Lukaku is marked up as 75% likely to play due to a thigh strain (But I think he'll be fine).

Should he play vs a AVL defence with no Mings/Martinez he could bully his way to a haul.

©️ CAPTAINCY
➡️ Antonio

4 goals (1st), 4 assists (1st), 16 shots (1st), 6 big chances (1st), 3.39 xG (1st), 1.90 xA (1st) & 40 points (1st).

He's the in form pick as WHU visit SOU. When fit he's just so so powerful & hungry, he's just been incredible in the opening 3 GW's!

©️ CAPTAINCY
➡️ DCL

BUR have conceded 53 shots (19th), 41 of which have been in the box (20th) which could be fantastic news for EVE's Calvert-Lewin. Yes 2 of his 3 goals have been from the pen spot but he can be a predator in the box.

Keep an eye on his fitness via @BenDinnery

🔮 PREDICTIONS
➡️ Highest Scorers

1. Ronaldo - 8.11
2. Bruno - 7.14
3. Salah - 6.89
4. Greenwood - 6.78
5. Kane - 6.67
6. Son - 6.37
7. Mane - 5.72
8. Aubameyang - 5.43
9. Antonio - 5.26
10. Adams - 5.22

* Courtesy of @FFH_HQ

🔮 PREDICTIONS
➡️ Clean Sheets

1. CHE - 58%
2. MUN - 55%
3. ARS - 45%
4. EVE - 44%
5. MCI - 44%
6. TOT - 42%

➡️ Over 2.5 Goals

1. MUN - 42%
2. ARS - 37%
3. LIV - 37%
4. CHE - 35%
5. MCI - 25%
6. EVE - 23%
7. TOT - 23%
8. WOL - 23%

* Courtesy of @drafthound

📈 GW4 DIFFERENTIAL CENTRAL

🥇 KANE
Price: £12.3M
Fixture: vs CRY
TSB: 7.9%

🥈 JIMENEZ
Price: £7.4M
Fixture: vs WAT
TSB: 2.9%

🥉 SMITH-ROWE
Price: £5.4M
Fixture: vs NOR
TSB: 4.9%

🏅 DOUCOURE
Price: £5.5M
Fixture: vs BUR
TSB: 1.7%

🔥 HOT PROPERTY

Players most bought IN ahead of GW4:

1. Ronaldo - 1,075,754
2. Torres - 625k
3. Antonio - 602k
4. Gray - 416k
5. Benrahma - 405k
6. Greenwood - 340k
7. Duffy - 328k
8. Reguilon - 323k
9. Alonso - 292k
10. Jansson - 278k

* As of Monday afternoon

🗑️ TOP BINNED

Players most booted OUT ahead of GW4 so far:

1. Bruno - 641k
2. Ings - 545k
3. Martinez - 510k
4. Tsimikas - 390k
5. Shaw - 311k
6. Toney - 253k
7. Richarlison - 235k
8. Foster - 233k
9. Lukaku - 231k
10. James - 224k

* As of Monday afternoon

📆FIXTURE SWINGS

✅ ARSENAL
➡️ NOR, BUR, TOT, BHA, CRY

❌ ASTON VILLA
➡️ CHE, EVE, MUN, TOT, WOL

✅ WOLVES
➡️ WAT, BRE, SOU, NEW, AVL

Despite a poor start to the season, ARS fixtures turn for the better in GW4. WOL also go on a crazy good 11 game swing whilst Villa's worsen.

📝 GW4 WILDCARD

Here's my article for @DraftGym that covers my thoughts on a hypothetical GW4 Wildcard.

Article Link ⤵️


📊 GW1 - GW3 STATS

My snapshot thread looking at the initial 3 gameweeks.

Thread Link ⤵️

🔮 GW4 - GW9 PREDICTIONS

1. Ronaldo - 26.69
2. Salah - 25.56
3. Bruno - 24.00
4. Greenwood - 22.85
5. Kane - 22.55
6. Son - 21.94
7. Bamford - 21.67
8. Mane - 21.55
9. Jimenez - 21.41
10. Calvert-Lewin - 21.32

Lukak-who? 👀 (JOKES)

* Courtesy of @FFH_HQ

💡GW4 TIPS

▫️Hold off making moves until as late as possible (unless on WC). Can almost guarantee a couple of bombshells dropping at Friday's press conferences!

▫️Don't go crazy for Ronaldo. We're gifted with a spread of mid priced forwards this season. He isn't a reason to WC

⚖️ BALANCE TOOL
🚌 BUS TEAM

🔄 Transfer Plan
OUT: Bruno, Ings, Barnes
IN: Ronaldo, Traore, Jota (-4)

💰 £1.4M ITB

⬇️ Which leaves me with:

🟥 Greenwood

🟧 Benrahma, Ronaldo

🟨 Traore, Ayling, Antonio, White, Jota

🟩 Salah, TAA, Sanchez, Steele, Shaw, Liveramento, Scarlett

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