Thread by @therealarod1984

9/9 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Testing definitely peaking last week
2) More Labor Day catch up on Cases
3) Hosps down vs yesterday & Last week. Should decline strongly this weekend
4) Fatality breakdown on 405 reported. Labor Day catch up

1/n
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9/9 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/1 at 13.68%
* Testing through 9/1, a peak may have formed on 8/27. 7DMA actually decreased vs 8/25 (preliminary)
* Covidestim with another drop in Rt to .74
* Gotta have positive tests to have cases

2/n
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9/9 Cases

* 23.7K Cases reported, Labor Day catch up vs 17.1K last Wed
* Case 7DMA WoW up 5%
* Peak is 9/5
* All the counties have had big case dumps the past two days. Comps of 19.2K, 14K, 6.8K coming up. Don't see a new peak, but I've been wrong before

3/n
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9/9 Hospitalizations

* -34 to 13486. Last Thurs was -105
* What Labor Day rebound?
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at -1.1%
* ICU stays post peak
* Fri - Sun numbers are heavy discharges. Could see census approaching 13100 by Sunday.

4/n
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9/8 - Hosp Covid Admits

* Statewide Admits down 186 from last Thursday
* What Labor Day rebound?
* 14DMA rate of change for all TSA areas - 13 of 22 are negative
* TMC and SETRAC 7DMAs continue to decline
* CDC ER visits with C-19 peaked on 8/15

5/n
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9/9 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/18, 2020 thru 7/18, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020- 5071, 240 7DMA
* 2021- 3954, 189 7DMA
* Despite much higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running ~23% lower than 2020.

6/n
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9/9 Fatalities Part 2

* Another 2020 Death today
* As expected, big reporting day of 405. Potentially could be the biggest # of summer. Due to catch up from Labor Day + we are moving into 2 weeks post hosp peak. Maybe 3-4 days of peak reports before declines start.

7/n

9/9 - Fatalities Primer

8/n
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9/9 Conclusion -

* School testing finally hit the ceiling around 8/27 it appears
* What cases do next 2 days will likely determine final peak
* Hosps are poised for big drops this weekend
* Be prepared for big Fatality reports on Fri, Sat, Tues & maybe Wed, then it drops

9/end