Thread by @FPLLens

#FPLScoutingReport #3: Demarai Gray🧐
+ The Alchemist

Hi and welcome to my 2nd article of the 1st international break. The 1st article on living w/o CR7 can be found here:

data sources: @FFScout @FantasyFootyFix @NickTriggerlips

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To afford CR7, many managers are looking at Demarai Gray who has a goal in each of the last 2 matches. He showed his value to Everton in preseason as he played a variety of different positions to some acclaim.

Everton paying only £1.5m for that kind of versatility is not only good business, it’s straight up gangsta. The question is whether he is worth £5.6m to us in #FPL.

Gray has become a consideration for those looking to free up cash to move to the forward line.

He may even be a starting consideration for those who are venturing into the 3 and 4 premium Twilight Zone, or those dealing with injuries and suspensions.
We will begin by taking a high-level look at Gray’s role in the first 3 gameweeks by looking at the heatmaps,

then we will take a look at how he executes this role with in-game screen shots from highlights footage.
To begin I would like to examine how EVE set up when attacking. The images below show the touch heatmaps for Townsend, Doucoure, DCL, and Richarlison.

We can see a clear front 3 with Doucoure a ways deeper as a hybrid 8.

If we then look at Gray’s heatmap, we can begin to see his role in this offense. There is a hole in the left side of the attack, just behind the front 3 that is designed for Gray to penetrate.

This is confirmed when looking at the shot heatmap. The 2 shots in the box were his two goals and they both came from that open space that Benitez has designed for Gray.

This design is highly encouraging for Gray’s prospects as a fantasy asset, but let’s examine his execution

to determine how sustainable this design is.
In this first image we see Gray providing a link option for Alex Iwobi. What he does next, however, is what truly impressed me.

Gray receives the ball on his right (trailing) foot, indicating to Ayling that he has a thought of

turning and running through the center of the field. This action causes Ayling to pause and opens the right flank for Gray to penetrate.

After a few concerning touches that allowed LEE to recover, Gray is finally able to leave Ayling behind and confront Cooper 1v1.

In this image we can see Cooper’s feet are planted and his hips turned thanks to Gray first angling his run inside before turning up the wing once again. This is a skill that Gray has mastered and will come up again.

Gray struggles w/ the final product. Gray blindly hits the ball into the obvs area w/o consideration to the type of ball needed. He either needs to bend the ball around Struijk to reach DCL, or allow DCL to take Struijk out of the play and chip the ball to the trailing Iwobi.

We see Benitez’ design in full effect here as Richarlison and DCL on holding the right side, keeping the space open for Gray to attack with his pace. Gray is known to be speedy, but what is impressive is his speed with the ball.

This image shows how Gray was again able to turn the defender’s hips with a dribble inside. Webster has taken a step away from Gray thinking Gray will come at him. Instead, Gray angles his dribble towards goal.

The finish is not great, but it is enough in this case. Both of Gray’s goals came from very similar prefabricated situations and neither ended in a good finish.

The shaky final product leads me to believe that Gray’s production is not sustainable.

I believe he is riding on some confidence from some lucky finishes and there could be a payoff in the short term. At the very least, he is drawing attention from managers and could provide a little profit if he continues to ride his confidence.

For me the decision to bring Gray in is circumstantial. If Son and DCL are out, then Son will become Gray and DCL will become CR7 (-4). If Son is out and DCL is fit, then Son will become Jota. If they’re both healthy, then I roll the transfer.

THE ALCHEMIST

“When we strive to become better than we are, everything around us becomes better, too.”
— Paulo Coelho

This week’s Alchemist is Conor Gallagher.

TOT have conceded the 2nd most chances from the left (20) and Gallagher is still flying coming off a brace in GW3 at WHU. Gallagher doesn’t have the stats but he has the opportunity from a tactical perspective against Spurs exposed left side.

To add, TOT have conceded the 6th most ICT to opponents so far (88). The table below, created by @NickTriggerlips tracks ICT conceded stats, and he calculates them himself every week. I want to thank him for this research and for his permission to use it here.

It goes without saying that this data is still highly subject to change since we only have 3 matches worth of data.

Good form and a couple of good tactical situations are enough to breathe life into the Alchemist for #GW4.

Please also check out my article and other incredible articles and resources at allaboutfpl.com. ❤️

Thanks once again for spending some time with my thoughts. Good luck with the big #FPL decisions before you this GW and may your arrows be green.

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