Thread of NFL Week 2 bets and mini write-ups.
Thread will be updated throughout the week.
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🏈 New England -3.5 (-110)
Belichick vs Wilson who looked flustered and anxious vs a weak CAR defense. Disagree with NE not being upgraded after seeing that Mac can work within this offense. Great secondary in MIA to now a bottom 5 in NYJ (Darnold 8.0 ypa!) It just feels short.
🏈LA Chargers -3 (-110)
Trust in Staley. LAC 62% pass vs a tough WFT DEF. LAC OL improved, allowed pressure just 12% of drops. LAC goes from one of the best DEF to a horrendous DAL DEF unit. Do we really upgrade DAL after TNF? Lost badly in YPP, YPA & YPR despite +3 TO's.
🏈Minnesota +4.5 (-115)
Sigh. ARZ goes from +3 @ TEN to -4.5 vs MIN. That's a huge gap between MIN/TEN I don't agree with. ARZ looked terrific, but played a terrible TEN DEF. Locker room issues brewing, but Zimmer still a terrific defensive game planner. Too big an adjustment.
🏈 Tennessee +6 (-116)
Sigh. SEA is loaded and the TEN defense is atrocious. However, as bad as TEN looked with Downing, at +6 this is the second biggest number ever laid against TEN w Tannehill and co. I don't believe the SEA DEF (just as bad) warrants a number this big.
🏈 Green Bay -11 (-110)
DET allowed 8.0 (!) yards per play and 11.5 yards per pass the 49ers. With the Okudah injury, Amani Oruwariye steps in as top corner. DET relying on rookies for depth beyond. Why expect anything different vs GB OFF? Same price as SF with HFA adjusted.
🏈 Logan Thomas o46.5 rec yards
Heinicke loves throwing at TEs & big targets. Went to Thomas/Sims 5 of 12 non RB targets vs LAC and 22/36 non RB targets vs TB. Total for Thomas same as last week despite the QB change. NYG allowed more targets to TE Fant in Wk1 than any WR. Over.
🏈Mike Williams o53.5 rec yards
Diggs can't cover both Allen/Williams. Last week Diggs was on the #1 WR (Evans) for 39/47 routes. Betting he takes Allen on Sunday and Williams runs free. Usage for Williams way up in game one under Stale, as was pass rate. Great H2H quote too...
🏈 Cleveland -12.5 (-110)
Laying another big number, hurts, but I just have to do it. Ratings make the game north of 14. I think we might get there anyway. HOU got a gift in a unprepared JAX team in Week 1. Couldn't be more different this week at CLE. Two different leagues here.
🏈 Jared Goff o0.5 INT’s (-178)
Just going to keep betting it. We will see if we get a 1.5 at some point. Big underdog, will be playing from behind and throwing lots, GB have great DB’s. Best WR Williams likely out. Struggles vs pressure. Same thing, another week w/o McVay.
🏈Buffalo o26.5 (-110)
BUF lives in 3 WR sets MIA lives in man. Allen success vs MIA not fluke, he kills their coverage. Heck, Mac w nobody killed MIA from 3 WR vs man last wk. With Davis out, MIA will struggle getting pressure rushing 4, tough for Flores to switch out. Over.
🏈Marquez Valdes-Scantling o38.5 rec yds
Rodgers vs two rookie CB's for DET. Those rookies will line up on WR2 and in the slot for DET expected to play "expanded roles". Rodgers stating the obvious, but we have seen him kill rookie DB's. MVS down from 46 yds last to 38 this wk.
🏈 Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-115)
Injuries piled up in a hurry for the Saints. Panthers get through the week with a clean report. Likely a lower scoring game, but might be too strong an over reaction to week one to lay more than a FG on the road in division.
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