What is the $10 to $10,000 sports betting challenge?

A thread on why is this trend has become so popular (again) but also why it is teaching new bettors all of the wrong habits, setting them up to lose long term and encouraging problem gambling.

🧵Tap to read more... 1. For those unaware, the $10 to $10,000 sports betting challenge is a rollover or reverse martingale content series. Bettors begin with $10 and try double their winnings 10 times in 10 days to end up with $10,000. The bets each day are primarily SGP's on alternate prop odds.

Sportsbook accounts will fill bettors Twitter feeds with consensus reports this weekend.

Ticket Count.
Bet Percentages.
Sharp/Square Action.
RLM.

These tweets are sent to provoke bets. But, they can be incredibly misleading.

Here is a thread with a few examples why...🧵 1. No matter what you do as a bettor, you can never fade the public and align yourself with the sportsbook and what they need because of the vig.

Most bettors have nothing but bad things to say about sportsbooks - even though we use them every day.

What most recreational bettors fail to realize is that you can create your own sportsbook, and benefit from it each bet.

Here is a thread explaining how… 1. As with all my tweets, there are nuances at the professional level to which this can change. The goal here is to get people thinking about things in a better way. The descriptions here apply for MLB but can be used for all sports and markets.

The "Cash Out or Not?" trend is sweeping social media.

Unfortunately, people love to talk about this - much more so than they love to understand basic math and betting principles.

Here is a thread explaining why "Cash Out" is a terrible choice, 99% of the time.

Tap to read 👇 The premise of cash out is built on the same one that fueled the popularity behind "Deal or No Deal" in the mid 2000's.

The cash out dilemma fits the players happiness of having something guaranteed now, vs their regret of potentially having nothing - at the expense of value.

The NFL Draft is a great example of why all bettors must have multiple sportsbooks. Price shopping is key, but it is important to understand how much vig is priced into the one way markets before blindly betting price differences.

Here is a thread with some thoughts. This morning a sportsbook has Green Bay to draft an offensive player with their first pick at -160. It is easy to look at other sportsbooks and see Green Bay is listed at -140 to draft a WR and +430 to draft an OL (two OFF positions). So is the -140 a good bet? Remove the vig.

When I was 23 I started a "Bush Play Whe" operation with a partner in Tobago. It was a back door lottery which piggy backed the government game - but paid out more.

The things we did to advertise and how US Sportsbook are now advertising is all too familiar...

Thread below... Important to know a little bit of background on Play Whe. The game is ingrained in the Trinidadian culture. Players pick a number between 1 and 36 for four different draws per day which are carried out on national television. Each of the 36 numbers corresponds to a symbol...

New York! 🍎

This morning on the pod, I talked about the big day for you guys tomorrow and how to be prepared to take advantage of the free money sportsbooks spending to get your sign up.

Here is a thread of tips to remember as you open four new betting accounts tomorrow... The entirety of this thread can be read in more detail on @Covers here: covers.com/industry/best-…

I think it is important to note that I do not personally get paid on any sign ups to any of the books in New York nor any other state. It is your money, do with it as you wish.

From an market perspective, I see a lot of similarities between Atlanta in 2016 and Tennessee this season.

For those that do not remember, Atlanta was 12/1 to win the Super Bowl before a Week 17 game against eliminated New Orleans. The Falcons closed an 8 point favorite. (1/5) The betting market knew an Atlanta win would get them the bye. They won, and dropped to 9/1. Before taking the field two weeks later, they were down to 6/1. The Falcons opened -6 vs Seattle and were 5/2 into the NFC Championship vs Green Bay. (2/5)

This week in 2010, I was 18 years old & landed in Port of Spain, Trinidad for my first "real job" as a bookmaker at "The Palms".

In my mind, I pictured a Vegas style casino.

No. I was dropped off at a "members club" on top of a Burger King in a hotel.

A thread on how it went👇 Port of Spain has a handful of casinos, but they also have "Members Clubs" which are semi-legal (ish) slot rooms. Anyone can sign up at the door, enter and do as they wish. The Palms had about 75 slots, two blackjack tables and two Rhum 32 tables with a bar in the middle.

NFL Week 13 "Real Boxscore" recap thread.

Rebuilding the box scores from Week 13 and looking for things that stood out.

Tap to open the thread and view games... IND 31 - HOU 0

When it comes to covering a spread as a big favorite, IND is built to do it. The market supports them too. Bet up from -7 to -10.5 at close. 238 total rushing yards for 5.0 per carry. 5.5 ypp to just 2.8 (!) for HOU. Could have been worse too, IND 4/6 in RZ.

Thread of NFL Week 4 bets and mini write-ups.

Thread will be updated throughout the week.

Tap to expand to scroll down and read... 🏈 Baltimore +1.5

DEN 3-0 but plays the easiest schedule of opponents (NYG, JAX, NYJ) to start season. BAL big lead against LV, wins vs KC and despite the final score puts up big numbers on DET. Look ahead to reopen flips, but I just do not agree & think DEN is valued too high.

Thread of NFL Week 2 bets and mini write-ups.

Thread will be updated throughout the week.

Tap to expand to scroll down and read... 🏈 New England -3.5 (-110)

Belichick vs Wilson who looked flustered and anxious vs a weak CAR defense. Disagree with NE not being upgraded after seeing that Mac can work within this offense. Great secondary in MIA to now a bottom 5 in NYJ (Darnold 8.0 ypa!) It just feels short.

Basic strategy (wong) teasers carry the bulk of the discussion during NFL season - and rightfully so. But how many people are sleeping on teasing teams that are -6.5 down to -0.5? Here is a quick explanation of why (sometimes) it is a much better bet than you might think... Week 1 is a good example as we have two 6.5 point favorites at home (Kansas City and Buffalo). Here are the current prices at for the spread and moneyline.

Buffalo -6.5 and -275
Kansas City -6.5 and -275

Thread of NFL Week 1 bets and write-ups based on the Tuesday morning segment with @MitchMossRadio and @PaulyHoward on @VSiNLive.

Thread will be updated throughout the week.

Tap to expand to scroll down and read... 🏈 SF -7.5 (-110)

Shanahan vs Campbell/Lynn with 12+ weeks of prep. Goff now without McVay helping him (look at his '16 numbers!) vs the depth of the 49ers pass rush. Huge number on the road but a big mismatch. IMO reminiscent of BAL @ MIA in Week 1 2019.

Any NFL bettor can make (a fairly decent) total on their own with a pen, paper and seven basic stats.

Will this allow you to beat the books? Probably not. But it will answer questions and serve as a simple, basic place to begin making totals.

Here is a thread on how it works... These are the seven statistics that you need to use. The goal of this "exercise" is to ultimately weight the output numbers of each team to the opponent allowance and then adjust for pace and pass rate.

The easiest way for most bettors to create NFL Power Rankings explained in a thread. (Key words in that sentence are "easiest" and "most bettors".)

The 0-100 method begins as it sounds, take a piece of paper and draw a line with 0 on one side and 100 on another. 0 = the worst team in NFL history
100 = the best team in NFL history

Plot four teams on the 0-100 scale based on how you feel about the team. Examples included...

Best: (KC 90)
Worst: (HOU 15)
Avg or Worse: (LAC 40)
Avg or Better: (TEN 60)

On @YouBetterYouBet tonight, @JoeO670 told me that this week is the most popular download week of the year for podcasts. On that note, I thought I would share some of my favourite betting shows that I listen to each week for those travelling. Thread below 👇 More X's and O's focused than betting, but @CSimmsQB is able to talk about football in a way that everyone can understand. Every episode I learn a ton and high recommend it for those wanting to understand more about the game.

podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/chr…

I learned a simple way to calculate a baseline for NFL totals during my first bookmaking job almost a decade ago. I still use it today to spot numbers on the board at open which may be too low or too high. I thought I would explain today in a thread below to offer some value. 👇 The most important thing I learned to think about was how teams are affected by their opponent. Rather than thinking “what can these teams do together” to bet a total, I think, “does this opponent increase or decrease the likelihood of success in the matchup”. In order to do...

Ok, a thread to wrap my thoughts on "Reverse Line Movement" so I never have to speak of it again here or on the podcast and can get back to paying attention to the games and betting markets...👇 Reverse line movement requires a bettor to follow a consensus report (more on these in a minute) to find games where the odds move in favour of a team receiving a low number of bets. This is perceived as a "sharp" side as books (in theory) have no reason to move the line.