Scott Duncan Profile picture
Scottish meteorologist based in London | MMet @UniofReading | Former co-owner @wxcharts | opinions are my own

Sep 15, 2021, 5 tweets

Summer 2021 was exceptionally hot when compared to a summer average from 1951-1980.

But it felt cold in large parts of Europe? This map must be wrong?

It turns out, 'how we feel' can be explained - without data, we are just opinions.

A thread...

Let's start by comparing summer of 2021 to a more recent average of 1981-2010.

Already looking less fiery and red. This basically tells us that the summers between 1981 and 2010 were warmer than those between 1951-1980.

But what about Summer 2021 vs the 21st century average so far?

The reds in western Europe erode and essentially we learn that the summer in 2021 was nothing special compared to this average (but is still considerably warmer than 1951-1980 average for example).

This is where it gets interesting though...

Summer 2021 is a good bit colder than the average of the last 3 summers for western Europe. We have had a lot of hot weather in recent years! Our perception of what is actually warm and cool has changed.

Essentially, a few hot summers recently makes this summer look quite cool. Basically, our 'cool' summer is still a lot warmer than what was considered normal 50-100 years ago for example.

Both maps show exactly the same underlying data

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