Thread by @Hibbo_FPL

Breaking The Template #GW5 [Thread]

In this thread, I examine the merits of holding or selling the suspended Michail Antonio. This thread will provide FPL tips to help managers to break the template and achieve that top 10k finish.

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Antonio: the Data so far

Michail Antonio (£7.9m) has notched four goals in the opening four gameweeks, ranking top amongst forwards for goal threat in the process. Over the period Antonio has dominated for shot volume ranking first for shots (18) and shots on target (8).

In addition to shot volume, approximately 83% of Antonio’s shots have been from close range, ranking first for shots inside the box (15).

Furthermore, high-quality chances have been in abundant supply, with Antonio ranking first amongst forwards for big chances received (6).

Unsurprisingly, the proximity and frequency of his shots see Antonio dominate the expected goal metrics, ranking first for xG (3.60) and NPxG (2.83). The Jamaican international is as creative as he is lethal, ranking first for assists (4), big chances created (3), and xA (1.99).

The Fixtures:

In terms of fixtures, Antonio misses the visit of Man United to the London Stadium following his second yellow card against Southampton. Given the perceived difficulty of the immediate fixture, owners with bench cover could hold and address other squad issues.

In GW6, West Ham travel to face a Leeds side who have endured a tough start to the season. Over the first four, Leeds rank joint-worst for shots conceded (75) and worst for shots on target conceded (28). Furthermore, Leeds rank second-worst for goals conceded (11) and xGC (9.3).

It’s important not to drive a narrative but to provide balance and, most importantly, context. Over the first four, the opposition Leeds have faced rank amongst the divisions best for NPxG. Notably, against that metric Liverpool rank first (10.6) and Man United rank third (7.8).

In Gameweek 7, Brentford visit the London Stadium and having seemingly established themselves as a “mid-table defence”. Over the first four, Brentford were fourth best for shots conceded (40) and joint-fourth best for shots on target conceded (13).

The Bees have conceded just two goals which aligns almost perfectly with their non-penalty expected goals conceded (2.1). For context, over the period, the opposition faced have lacked threat with Brighton ranked highest in ninth place for non-penalty expected goals (4.9).

The addition of Europa League adds an extra layer of complexity which sees West Ham play nine matches over the next seven weeks. It remains to be seen whether West Ham have the depth to play Sunday football with the lethargy that Europa League Thursday nights invariably bring.

The International Factor:

Antonio debuted for Jamaica, during the last IB, in a 3-0 defeat to Panama in WC qualifying. The upcoming October international break will see Jamaica close their World Cup qualifying campaign with a triple-header against USMNT, Canada & Honduras.

Interestingly, Jamaica faces their next three opponents in countries on the UK amber travel list, meaning Antonio should be allowed to both travel and play. For a player accustomed to both injuries and a restful international break, this is a step into unchartered territory.

Injury History:

While Antonio will be delighted to tick both European & international competition off his bucket list, his hamstrings might not. Antonio suffered his second hamstring injury of last season in Apr 2021 which ruled him out for the remainder of the season.

Antonio has been recently quoted as saying, “I’ve noticed since I changed my diet I’ve had less niggles and I’ve not felt my hamstrings at all”. However, for, Antonio’s long term fitness, the proof in the pudding won’t be in the eating but in load management.

The Alternatives:

The return of Raul Jimenez (£7.4m) following his fractured skull against Arsenal last season has been nothing short of remarkable. In terms of goal threat, Jimenez ranks second behind Antonio amongst forwards for shots (13) and shots in the box (12).

The wayward Mexican has been found badly wanting for accuracy, ranking poorly for shots on target (1). Furthermore, while Bruno Lage’s Wolves side have been commended for their attacking style, Jimenez has struggled for big chances (1).

Two factors point to a Firmino-esque change in role for Raul Jimenez. As a team, Wolves rank fifth for big chances, but the Mexican has had minimal involvement. Secondly, the former Benfica man ranks first amongst forwards for key passes (12).

In terms of fixtures, in Gameweek 5 Wolves welcome a defensively sound Brentford to Molineux in what could be a cagey affair. A trip to Southampton appeals before a hugely enticing home tie against a ramshackle Newcastle United that rank worst in the division for xGC (10.5).

Patrick Bamford (£7.9m) has endured a slower start to his second Premier League season with Leeds, largely due to tough opening fixtures. In terms of goal threat, Bamford ranks amongst forwards joint-fifth for shots (15) and fifth for shots in the box (10).

Bamford has shown greater accuracy than the Mexican, ranking better for shots on target (3). Having faced two of the division’s best sides, Liverpool and Manchester United, in the opening four it bodes well that Bamford has returned a goal and an assist against non-elite sides.

In terms of fixtures, over the next three Leeds have a very favourable run, beginning with a visit to Newcastle, which is conducive to a Bamford haul. Back to back home games against West Ham and Watford appeal, with the Hornets joint-fifth worst for big chances conceded (10).

Conclusion:

In conclusion, given the production of Michail Antonio, it could be considered knee-jerk to remove the West Ham marksman because of a one-game suspension. However, it’ll be largely team-dependent whether FPL managers have the strength in depth to hold and bench.

The injury to Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.2m) has limited the alternatives but those chasing upside should back the fixtures and Bamford to steal a march on their rivals. However, any transfer should be left to the deadline given rumours about a possible hamstring issue.

After the strength of the starting template, FPL managers have been faced with early decisions which could prove to be sliding door moments for their season. Bamford is very much the aggressive template breaking pick, however Antonio will be that touch more differential by GW6.

ICYMI:

We welcomed 4x Top 1k veteran @NickTriggerlips to chat about his illustrious history, strategies for success & game-plan for tackling the current #FPL campaign.

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