1. I've devoted much of my career to understanding authoritarianism and the breakdown of democracy. And I'm growing increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for American democracy, because of one simple question: what could slow down the GOP march toward authoritarianism?
2. I've thought a lot about this and I can come up with hundreds of reasons why the increasing authoritarian extremism in the Republican party/base is not just self-sustaining, but likely to accelerate. Let's start with just a few key reasons for this ratcheting extremism here:
3. Primaries: Republicans who try to govern by consensus, compromise, or democratic principles rather than relentlessly kowtowing to autocratic Trumpian dogma now end up with primary challengers. Everyone knows this in the GOP, so even moderates become more extreme over time.
4. Gerrymandering: this is bad and getting worse. Most districts are uncompetitive, leading to electoral landslides, so the only way for a Republican to lose is to provoke a primary challenger. That means that the rational strategy is to pander to the authoritarian extremists.
5. (Social) Media breakout power. Two/three decades ago, someone like MTG would have been expelled from the GOP immediately. Now, she's a Republican breakout star on TV and on social media even though she's a first term Congresswoman. Authoritarianism now comes with star power.
6. The point is this: there are huge pressures pushing Republicans toward embracing authoritarian extremism. And here's the problem: there are no countervailing forces. There's nothing that rewards being a sober moderate who believes in democracy and tries to govern by consensus.
7. In fact, the people who try to defend democracy within the GOP become pariahs. Their careers die. So what happens? Even the moderates at heart start acting like zealots because it's the only way to maintain power and stay in good stead in the Republican party.
8. Many thought Jan. 6 would be the breaking point. But it wasn't. In fact, the authoritarian attempts to overturn the election have, if anything, become more mainstream, more of a litmus test for future GOP candidates. "Do you believe Trump won?" is an authoritarian loyalty test
9. Here's the bottom line: nobody has come up with a convincing explanation for how this authoritarian trend reverses itself. That's why, as someone who studies these dynamics for a living, I'm worried that the GOP is becoming irreversibly authoritarian. (Sorry to be depressing)
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