1. Why is Biden stepping aside extremely good news for the Democrats? There are many reasons, but let me walk through some of the main ones.

—Reduced catastrophic risk
—Ability to prosecute the case against Trump
—Democratic disarray less likely because of anti-Trump motivation 2. Biden is an excellent president, but the risk of a repeat of the debate debacle closer to November was a catastrophic and uncontrollable risk. There’s nothing anyone could do about it and it *was* a serious possibility. If it happened again, Trump wins, guaranteed.

1. *Nobody* knows what would happen if Biden steps down. It’s impossible! There is no relevant precedent. It’s not 1968! There’s never been an old felon authoritarian former president against an 82 year old incumbent. It’s radical uncertainty. I don’t know. Nor does anyone else. 2. Many of the voices suggesting Biden bow out are people who would crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. They believe—in good faith—the risks of Biden staying in are higher than the risks of bowing out. Maybe they’re wrong! But it’s silly to imagine there’s no issue.

I’ve got a new book coming out!

It’s called FLUKE: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters.

It’s the most interesting thing I’ve ever written—it drastically changed how I see the world—and I hope you’ll pre-order it. Read what it’s about here: simonandschuster.com/books/Fluke/Br… Here’s the summary: “In the perspective-altering tradition of Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point and Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan comes a provocative challenge to how we think our world works—and why small, chance events can divert our lives and change everything.”

Ted Cruz’s prayers don’t seem to be working. A thread:

`1. Researchers have identified a new personality trait that poses a particularly dangerous risk to democracy. It's called the "Need for Chaos."

Let me explain, starting with my favorite hate e-mail I've received. "Dear Brain," it began, a lovely compliment right off the bat... 2. At least he was polite. Anyone who writes about US politics gets these sort of e-mails. They get particularly vitriolic if you’re critical of Trump. They’re much worse if you’re a woman. (I’ve heard horror stories). But here's the thing about them... brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-need-for…

1. Fresh genomic evidence has emerged, suggesting that Covid came from a raccoon dog. At the same time, US government agencies have concluded that it came from a “lab leak” accident. We may never know the origin story with certainty. But there’s a bigger story we’re all missing. 2. The story so far is a strange one. New genomic data was discovered recently, by accident. When researchers analysed it, they found clear marches with raccoon dogs. So, they said so. But when they went back to look at the data, it had been removed. brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-missing-…

1. A few years ago, I wrote about how Trump’s criminality was like being a golden retriever in an exploding tennis ball factory. There’s so much, you’re not sure what to focus on. If there was just one tennis ball, we’d obsess over it. Instead, we end up ranking the criminality. 2. This benefits Trump, partly because our attention is split and you end up forgetting which tennis ball is which (how many investigations are ongoing, again?) and partly because people then say “the hush money payment is just a minor offense.” But that’s a crazy viewpoint.

Rwanda is a brutal dictatorship that literally hunts down and murders dissidents. Rwandan exiles have been targeted by death squads *in London*. In 2021, the UK government said Rwanda had ignored “allegations of human rights violations including deaths in custody and torture.”

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1635340081128169473

See, for example: bbc.com/news/world-afr…

1. Nearly 13 years ago, a vegetable vendor in Tunisia lit himself on fire to protest a corrupt dictator. It sparked the Arab Spring, a moment of hope for Middle East democracy. Tunisia became a democracy. Now, dictatorship is returning—and the West is letting democracy die. 2. Tunisia’s authoritarian president, Kais Saied, has been consolidating power, muzzling the free press, and purging his enemies. He has suspended parliament, held sham elections, and rammed through a new constitution. brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-last-ara…

1. How many politicians are psychopaths?

It’s an important question, particularly when politics is so broken in democracies like the US, UK, and beyond. Are our leaders disproportionately people with broken brains who feel little emotion or empathy? brianklaas.substack.com/p/how-many-pol… 2. To answer that question, you have to start with the problem of “self-selection.” As I explain here, people who decide to become politicians are a non-random subset of the population. They are power-hungry. They’re also more likely to be narcissists. brianklaas.substack.com/p/how-many-pol…

1. You watched the Super Bowl, but have you seen the Superb Owl? They’ve got weird legs, as you can see below, but let me explain why owls deserve some more attention for inspiring our modern technology. 2. Owls are nature’s stealth planes. Much of the time, humans can only hear them flying when they come within a few feet of us. They have unique wings and feathers which dampen sound, helping them catch prey. But there’s a useful lesson for humans too. brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-superb-o…

1. “Why have the Republicans lost their minds?” Here in Britain, that’s the most common question I get asked about US politics. Yes, Donald Trump is part of the answer. But there are deeper structural factors at play, and it’s crucial to understand them to fix American democracy. 2. The explanation lies with what I call the “Trifecta of Extremism,” three structural cracks in US democracy that Trump blew wide open. I explain them in detail here: brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-republic…

1. It’s not every day you get a balloon-adjacent news cycle so I can’t let this one go to waste without sharing my weirdest balloon-based historical fact. It’s about a rather peculiar bet in late 18th century aristocratic London involving debauchery well above the Earth. 2. The London club Brooks’s, which has long been a posh club for the aristocracy and the rich, has kept a bet book—there are hundreds of years of bets recorded in it. Once in the book, parties agreed to abide by the bet. And one of the most bizarre bets involves a balloon.

1. To stop police violence, you need to fix the system. Oversight, accountability, and body cams are essential reforms, but they mistake the symptom for the disease. To reduce police killings, you need to fix the system itself. And that requires thinking about who becomes a cop. 2. As I explain here, power attracts corruptible people more generally, and power centers with a history of abusive, militaristic, and racist violence disproportionately attract people who want to abuse minorities, or use lethal force. brianklaas.substack.com/p/how-to-reduc…

1. This problem won’t be solved by more bodycams. Of course we must put lots and lots of oversight on what the police do. But too little attention is paid to who the police are. Systems of power with a history of abuse attract abusive people. There’s a self-selection problem. 2. I wrote about this extensively in “Corruptible.” Part of the problem is how US policing is militaristic, so it attracts people who want to use military-style force. That’s amplified by the weapons most normal police departments now have. But it’s also about recruitment.

I wrote this to systematically debunk the really stupid pro-gun arguments that usually arise in Twitter comments. And still, the people commenting on it...turn to the exactly same really stupid pro-gun arguments without reading it. open.substack.com/pub/brianklaas… For example, no...knife homicide rates are not higher in the UK. They are also higher in the US.

1. In 1994, the US almost went to war because voodoo priests interpreted a plane that nearly crashed into the White House as an auspicious sign. It's a wild but forgotten story, involving a dictator, voodoo diplomacy, and a disgruntled truck driver. brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-dictator… 2. In the early 1990s, Haiti's government was overthrown in a coup that put a US-trained dictator named Raoul Cédras into power. He was awful, carrying out mass killings as he consolidated power. But he really pissed off Washington because he got involved in the global drug trade

What just happened in Brazil is an example of "authoritarian learning," and it has a long history—of autocrats and demagogues swapping tactics because they're part of the same networks. We must disrupt these networks, or more will follow. I explain here: open.substack.com/pub/brianklaas… Authoritarian leaders face similar challenges, so they borrow strategies from another autocrat's playbook. Sometimes, it's done passively—watch and learn. Other times, it's more deliberate, in which they actively work together. open.substack.com/pub/brianklaas…

Apparently it’s not (yet) outlawed to post links to newsletters, so here’s mine if you want to keep reading my writing 1-2x per week, beamed straight to your inbox. I hope you’ll sign up before you jump ship. brianklaas.substack.com Here are a few examples of what I’ve written recently so you can get a taste for it. First up, It’s the Guns, a clear, data-driven analysis of why it’s just that simple, using cross-national comparisons. open.substack.com/pub/brianklaas…

Is America still on the path to authoritarianism?

1. After better-than-expected midterms, I've seen some complacency. At the same time, Trump is aggressively telling extremists to destroy American democracy. So, how bad are the risks? Let me explain. open.substack.com/pub/brianklaas… 2. American democracy still faces extreme risks. The midterms were unequivocally good news for democracy. But the mistake is to think that a few candidates—Kari Lake or Doug Mastriano—represent the authoritarian threat. They're riding the anti-democracy wave, not causing it.

1. Ever wondered where the name and logo for Bluetooth comes from?

The story is fascinating, and it takes us from a Viking king, to the English civil war, and to the mystery of the scattered bones of King Cnut. (Typed that last bit carefully). open.substack.com/pub/brianklaas… 2. More than 1,000 years ago, a Viking king named Harald Gormsson (who was the son of the wonderfully named King Gorm the Old) took power in Denmark. He was sort of a mediocre king, but there are two important aspects for our purposes.