Thread by @RRHElections

Oregon passed a Congressional map today. It's a 5-1 Dem gerrymander with 4 districts containing, or bordering, the pizza'd city of Portland. Thread on all 6 districts below, and check out our full analysis here: rrhelections.com/index.php/2021… (1/9)

OR-1 (D+12-->D+16) is still based in western Portland and suburban Washington County, but drops some rural conservative areas and is now even safer for Suzanne Bonamici.

Because the map double-crosses the Cascades, OR-2 (R+11-->R+13) becomes even more of a vote sink, losing the blue city of Bend and picking up red SW Oregon, which had made OR-4 competitive.

OR-3 (D+24-->D+19) is still based in Portland, but now cracks the red parts of suburban Clackamas.

OR-4 (R+1-->D+3), which had inched its way to swing-district status, loses right-trending inland SW Oregon and retains both college towns, Eugene and Corvallis. Should be enough for Peter DeFazio to avoid 2020-type scares. (5/9)

OR-5 (D+2) is politically unchanged, the one concession R's were able to draw, although it takes in a lot of new territory. Kurt Schrader (D) now faces a tug-of-war seat, with red rurals between blue pockets in Portland/suburbs and Bend across the Cascades. (6/9)

OR-6 (D+4) takes in Salem and R-leaning rural areas, and then snakes up to the edge of Portland. It was very close for governor in 2018, but generally Dem federally. Schrader could potentially run here, which would make OR-5 much more competitive. (7/9)

Overall, this is a reasonably secure 5-1 map given Oregon Dems' record in federal races, but moderate trends in the upper Willamette Valley would put at least 2 seats in play for R's. A clean map would likely have split 4-2. (8/9)

Legislative R's will be questioned for accepting this map instead of punting the process to state court, but they secured incumbent-protection legislative maps in return.

Finally, this map would be redrawn for '24 if OR's independent redistricting ballot measure is successful.