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RRH Elections
@RRHElections
RRH Elections is a Republican blog for election news & analysis. 538 A/B Rated Pollster. Sign up on the right side of our home page for daily email digests!
Mar 2 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Most common comment at today's Missouri caucus: "I had no idea this was happening until I heard it on the news yesterday." Zero campaign presence here at what should be one of the 5 largest caucuses in the state.
Nov 22, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
New York state Sen. Kevin Parker (D) has been accused of raping a Brooklyn woman in 2004. His alleged victim is now suing Parker under NY's Adult Survivors Act, a law which Parker voted for last year.
gothamist.com/news/ny-state-… The rape is alleged to have occurred 1 year before Sen. Kevin Parker (D) was arrested for punching a traffic agent in the face as the agent was writing a summons for the senator's double-parked car.
nytimes.com/2005/03/13/nyr…
Nov 7, 2023 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
Happy Election Night! Polls have closed in the eastern half of the beautiful Commonwealth of Kentucky. Follow us all night long for coverage of statewide, legislative, and municipal races as well as ballot measures. We're still here. With no KY counties fully reporting, we don't have any predicative results yet. Remember that in 2019 (the last #KYGov) year, large-scale mail voting wasn't a thing yet. So these early returns are uncharted territory.
Sep 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Looking at this NY #AD27 special election results map it's easy to see why the NY Assembly map was thrown out as an unconstitutional gerrymander. The unpopulated junk yards of Willets Point & Flushing Meadows Corona Park are used to connect two completely distinct neighborhoods🧵 Image The conservative GOP voting areas of Whitestone & College Point are lumped in with Orthodox Jewish neighborhood of Kew Gardens but the pairing is done in a way to ensure block voting Orthodox will always out vote other parts of the district, wasting as many GOP votes as possible.
May 13, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This article is worth a read. Of course what the article doesn't mention is that Sam Bankman Fried & FTX was playing both sides in #NY03 in 2022 by funnelling money to both George Santos (R) and to Democrat Josh Lafazan. 🧵 1/5 coindesk.com/consensus-maga… FTX executives paid off Democrat #NY03 candidate Josh Lafazan's personal student loans & donated to his campaign. Lafazan took in over $710K from FTX. 2/
theleaderonline.com/single-post/pi…
Apr 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
From @cinyc9, here's a comparison of the NY Assembly lines proposed by the commission today against the 2022 lines that were struck down on procedural grounds. Changes are modest in most of the state, although the most egregious district is gone: 1/ davesredistricting.org/join/30d4fc15-… The most significant change is the cleanup of #AD101, a Catskills-to-Utica GOP sink that was a poster child for gerrymandering. The old map wasn't ruled a gerrymander, but this is likely a sign that the commission thinks unchecked gerrymandering won't be allowed. 2/ Image
Jan 2, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
George Santos is not the only #NY03 candidate who's been accused of lying on his personal financial disclosure form. Nassau Legislator Josh Lafazan (D), who lost the NY-3 Dem primary, had to amend his after he was accused of hiding a $100K "personal loan" from Sam Bankman-Fried. Sam Bankman-Fried was a big supporter of Josh Lafazan (D). SBF helped steer over $1 million to Lafazan's losing #NY03 campaign. Bankman also gave a $100K "personal loan" to Lafazan who then turned around and loaned his campaign $166K.
theleaderonline.com/single-post/la…
Dec 23, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
The story of New Hampshire state Rep. Stacie Laughton (D), the 1st openly transgender person elected to a state legislature in the US is kind of insane. Laughton has a long rap sheet that involved credit card fraud, a bomb threat, fake 911 calls & criminal stalking charges. 🧵1/9 Stacie Laughton made history in 2012 as the 1st openly transgender person elected to a state legislature but after the election it came out that Laughton was a convicted felon with a long rap sheet that included conspiracy to commit credit card fraud. 2/
laconiadailysun.com/news/local/nas…
Dec 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
New York Councilman Ari Kagan is expected to switch parties from Democrat to GOP tomorrow. Kagan represents a district that includes Coney Island & other southern Brooklyn neighborhoods. nydailynews.com/news/politics/… Redistricting put Councilman Kagan in the same district with progressive Councilman Justin Brannan (D) who Kagan is expected to challenge next year. This part of southern Brooklyn swung heavily to the GOP in the 2022 election.
Nov 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Asian voters in NYC overwhelmingly swung from Democrats to Republicans this year. Lee Zeldin (R) carried the majority Asian 40th Assembly District in Queens and the heavily Asian 47th & 49th Assembly districts in Brooklyn.
nypost.com/2022/11/20/nys… Precinct analysis shows that Asian majority election districts in NYC voted more Republican than than non-Hispanic White districts did.
Nov 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
What do these places have in common? More pics to follow, and the answer will be at the end of the thread. (1/x) ImageImageImageImage More clues. (2/x) ImageImageImageImage
Nov 18, 2022 • 12 tweets • 7 min read
We are now barely 36 hours from the political highlight of the year.

The presentation of the 12th Annual RRH Turkey of the Year award.

Please join us for a trip down memory lane as we celebrate the first 11 winners of our award for memorable, embarrassing failure. We christened this award in 2011, when we realized we needed some way to recognize all the joy Anthony Weiner had brought to us that year. From the first sext to the press conferences hijacked by Breitbart and Howard Stern, what a first winner! rrhelections.com/index.php/2011…
Nov 8, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Quick Election Eve thread on the bane of every nerd's existence this time of year: MIRAGES.

A mirage happens when a state counts heavily R or D ballots particularly early or late in the process, giving one party the appearance of a big lead that disappears as votes are counted. Ohio, for example, is a BLUE MIRAGE state. In 2020, Ohio counted heavily Dem early/mail ballots first, and Biden led the state deep into the evening. He lost by 8 after the heavily R election day votes were counted.
Nov 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 6 min read
On Election Eve, just want to give a shout to all the young analysts who have done such great work with detailed maps, previews, and forecasts this year--including, but hardly limited to @Elections_Daily, @SplitTicket_, @CNalysis. Awesome stuff, all. Looking forward to tomorrow! For those who haven't read yet, here's final predictions from @Elections_Daily. @decunningham2, @JosephSzymanski, @krazgreinetz, @Jacob_Walters39 and the team have done amazing work all cycle, including building the great Election Shuffler tool. elections-daily.com/2022/11/07/ele…
Nov 5, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
NEW RRH Polls of 3 districts:

#VA07
🔴 @yestoyesli (R) 47%
🔵 @RepSpanberger (D) 47%

#OR04
🔴 @alekskarlatos (R) 45%
🔵 @ValHoyle (D) 45%

#OH13
🔴 @madisongesiotto (R) 44%
🔵 @EmiliaSykesOH (D) 46%

rrhelections.com/?p=104100 In #VA07 we found Youngkin very popular (+17) and Biden not (-11). Spanberger leads with those who have already voted; Vega will be relying on strong Election Day turnout. Spanberger leads in Stafford County, Vega in Spotsylvania.
Oct 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Just sitting here thinking about where Joe Pinion could be in the polls right now if he could have raised Amy McGrath kind of money for his long shot run against a Senate Majority Leader. It will be interesting to see if Pinion can do better in 2020 run against a Senate Majority Leader than McGrath did in 2018. This poll indicates that he could. So far Pinion has raised $96 million less than Amy McGrath did.
Oct 12, 2022 • 21 tweets • 10 min read
A week late, but let's do a thread on the Alabama VRA case and what it might mean for redistricting in 2024. The Supreme Court is expected to reinterpret the VRA--one way or another--next spring, and the Court's new guidelines will change the way states approach redistricting. 1/ Earlier this year, a lower court ordered Alabama to redraw its map (left), which has had one Black-majority district since 1992. Plaintiffs convinced the court that the VRA required Alabama to draw two Black-majority seats (right, for one example). 2/ ImageImage
Oct 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Here's a supercut of #WISen candidate Mandela Barnes (D) bragging about how he & #WIGov Tony Evers (D) worked to cut Wisconsin's prison population in half by releasing convicted felons back onto the streets of Wisconsin. 1/6
To meet their political goal of cutting Wisconsin prison population in half Evers & Barnes released murderers & rapist back onto the streets of Wisconsin. In 1st half of 2022 they were averaging granting early release to 2 murderers & rapist per week👇 2/
wisconsinrightnow.com/2022/10/11/eve…
Oct 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It's amazing how some of the most damaging op-research against John Fetterman are just contemporaneous news reports about all the shady/possibly illegal stuff John Fetterman did while serving as Mayor of Braddock. From 2010:
Jun 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
NY's Assembly maps which are the basis for all of NY's election districts have been ruled unconstitutional & will need to be redrawn for 2024. 1/4 By separating the Assembly lawsuit from the Congressional & state Senate lawsuit the petitioners were able to get a re-draw for those 2 maps this year as opposed to having to operate this election cycle on the legislature's illegal gerrymandered map. 2/4
May 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Quick hits on the new NY Congressional map: this will realistically swing between 16D-10R and 20D-6R, with each party having a couple other longer-shot targets. The key changes from Monday are a safer Malliotakis seat and splitting Suffolk by North/South Shore instead of E/W. After being tantalized with the possibility of a compact South Brooklyn seat, the court's final map is somehow even worse for the Orthodox Jewish community than the first draft. Boro Park is split precisely down the middle, eliminating its influence.