NSW R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.89 ± 0.04
Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.
Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).
More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html
#covid19nsw #covidsydney
NSW R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.89 ± 0.04
Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.
(Cases shown on a log scale)
More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html
#covid19nsw #covidsydney
R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):
LGAs of concern: R_eff = 0.80 ± 0.04
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 0.93 ± 0.05
(Cases shown on a log scale)
(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)
#covid19nsw #covidsydney
The Hunter Region: R_eff = 1.45 ± 0.19
(Cases shown on a log scale)
(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)
#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:
day cases 68% range
Fri: 820 694—948
Sat: 793 660—933
Sun: 765 621—912
Mon: 736 587—890
Tue: 708 554—871
Wed: 679 523—849
Thu: 651 490—826
Halving time is 29.6 days.
Note that these projections do not take into account upcoming easing of restrictions. If the trend changes as a result of easing, the projections will also change once this is reflected in case numbers, but not in advance.
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