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Chris Billington Profile picture
Chris Billington
@Chrisbilbo
Senior automation engineer at the Institute for Photonics and Advanced Sensing at the University of Adelaide, previous atomic physicist, and generally a nerd
Feb 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
NZ R_eff as of February 22nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.11 ± 0.11

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html NZ R_eff as of February 22nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.11 ± 0.11

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html
Feb 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
NZ R_eff as of February 21st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.21 ± 0.12

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html NZ R_eff as of February 21st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.21 ± 0.12

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html
Feb 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
NZ R_eff as of February 20th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.48 ± 0.13

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html ImageImage NZ R_eff as of February 20th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.48 ± 0.13

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html ImageImage
Jan 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
VIC R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.96 ± 0.10

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic VIC R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.96 ± 0.10

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Jan 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Jan 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
TAS R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.74 ± 0.42

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_TAS.html TAS R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.74 ± 0.42

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_TAS.html
Jan 7, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
With the projected peak of the NSW outbreak approaching, it's worth showing how sensitive my projection is to one of its main assumptions: the fraction of infections that are being captured by testing. 1/6 Current projection is based on the assumption that 20% of infections are being detected. That implies there are a lot of infections contributing to immunity that have not been detected via testing. 2/6
Jan 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
VIC R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.34 ± 0.09

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic VIC R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.34 ± 0.09

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Jan 7, 2022 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
NSW R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.69 ± 0.07

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney NSW R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.69 ± 0.07

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Jan 6, 2022 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
NSW R_eff as of January 7th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage NSW R_eff as of January 7th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
Dec 18, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Figured out why my Hunter region R_eff calculation had zero uncertainty. I was literally clipping R_eff values to the "sane" assumption that it would be less than 10 in the uncertainty calculation. Some other clipping for the sake of "sanity" was also limiting the central value. What used to be insane now isn't. Here's what the Hunter looks like with none of this clipping.
Dec 17, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
They're the experts, but I think ATAGI is making the wrong call. There is a persistent bias in health regulation toward inaction in uncertain times, as if regulators are somehow less responsible for the consequences of inaction than of action. 1/🧵 Much in the article emphasises uncertainty. But we need to make judgement call with the information available. Just because of uncertainty doesn't mean the best option is doing nothing. There's no reason to privilege that course of action over any other. 2/🧵
Dec 17, 2021 • 7 tweets • 6 min read
NSW R_eff as of December 18th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 3.35 ± 0.25

Cases shown on both a linear scale (first image) and log scale (second image).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.37 ± 0.27
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 8.55 ± 0.78

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Dec 16, 2021 • 7 tweets • 6 min read
NSW R_eff as of December 17th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 3.52 ± 0.33

Cases shown on both a linear scale (first image) and log scale (second image).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.17
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 7.22 ± 1.01

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Dec 16, 2021 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Hi all,

You might have noticed my short-term projections for the NSW outbreak yesterday were pretty nuts. It turns out this projection was unrealistic, due to some approximations in my code that are no longer valid now that growth rates are higher. 1/🧵 So first, apologies. These issues are fixed now and today's projection ought to be more realistic. Secondly, gory details below. There were two problems. 2/🧵
Dec 15, 2021 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
NSW R_eff as of December 16th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 3.24 ± 0.63

Cases shown on both a linear scale (first image) and log scale (second image).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.45 ± 0.13
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.81 ± 0.32

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
Oct 1, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
VIC R_eff as of October 2nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.53 ± 0.09

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic VIC R_eff as of October 2nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.53 ± 0.09

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Oct 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
ACT R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.71 ± 0.53

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_ACT.html ACT R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.71 ± 0.53

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_ACT.html
Oct 1, 2021 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
NSW R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.91 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney NSW R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.91 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Oct 1, 2021 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
VIC R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.46 ± 0.08

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic VIC R_eff as of October 1st with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.46 ± 0.08

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic
Sep 30, 2021 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
NSW R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.89 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage NSW R_eff as of September 30th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 0.89 ± 0.04

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage