1/ A few thoughts seeing the new "In Gold We Trust" chartbook. tinyurl.com/5ycdtxdz
First, the USD M2 money supply is in its 11th doubling cycle since the year 1900.
2/ Historic analogies useful but can deceive. A simple repeat of the 1970s style stagflation is unlikely imo, this time the money priBRRRRRRRRR...
3/ The IFMS heads are today's popes and bishops, in charge of a global monopoly with an ever expanding mandate. bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2…
4/ Some of these inflation drivers look frightening. Cost of shipping goods internationally is up 5x since the start of 2020.
5/ Commodity price booms means people get hungry and angry. And then come scape goats, conflicts...
6/ It's hard to imagine a bear market in stocks. Regulatory uncertainty will make that easier and easier. (e.g. "eat the rich", price controls, supply chain troubles, mercantilism, ...)
7/ Gold: +40% in three/four years time doesn't seem like a very ambitious price target. Assuming 10% dollar inflation, that is a less than 9% increase in purchasing power per year.
8/ Is @IGWTreport bearish on gold? Not trying to be facetious. If we assume 12% average inflation for the next 9 years, $4,800 gold means its purchasing power will slightly _decline_ by 2030.
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