1/ A few thoughts seeing the new "In Gold We Trust" chartbook. tinyurl.com/5ycdtxdz
First, the USD M2 money supply is in its 11th doubling cycle since the year 1900.
First, the USD M2 money supply is in its 11th doubling cycle since the year 1900.
2/ Historic analogies useful but can deceive. A simple repeat of the 1970s style stagflation is unlikely imo, this time the money priBRRRRRRRRR...
3/ The IFMS heads are today's popes and bishops, in charge of a global monopoly with an ever expanding mandate. bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2…
4/ Some of these inflation drivers look frightening. Cost of shipping goods internationally is up 5x since the start of 2020.
5/ Commodity price booms means people get hungry and angry. And then come scape goats, conflicts...
6/ It's hard to imagine a bear market in stocks. Regulatory uncertainty will make that easier and easier. (e.g. "eat the rich", price controls, supply chain troubles, mercantilism, ...)
7/ Gold: +40% in three/four years time doesn't seem like a very ambitious price target. Assuming 10% dollar inflation, that is a less than 9% increase in purchasing power per year.
8/ Is @IGWTreport bearish on gold? Not trying to be facetious. If we assume 12% average inflation for the next 9 years, $4,800 gold means its purchasing power will slightly _decline_ by 2030.
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