Updating for the start of October. The prior week had 49 million doses. A soft period coming on the back of successive weeks of high performance dominating the top 5 in this chart:
1/
The primary reason for this is a softness in supply coming on the back of 4 long weeks of high performance. However this is now improving as the graph shows, with the available supply back over 50M :
2/
Weekly performance remained steady with no major movement. Trailing 7DMA is now a shade under 7M/day but should go up soon.
I may stop presenting this chart. Oct is likely to have many days over 10M, which this doesn’t show well. If you like this data, please say so.
3/
Now for the major highlights:
September ended with 239 million doses done, average 8M/day over 30 days. That is not far from double-vaxing the entire adult NZ or Singapore population every day for a month.
Cumulative total now 904 million as of Oct 2.
4/
India accounted for 26.5% of global vaccinations in Sept. It ended the month exceeding the vaccinations in all of Europe, all of the Americas and Africa, COMBINED.
There’s no desire to gloat, but to show sense of proportion. Understanding & conclusions follow from that.
5/
The following two graphs show the landscape at the start and end of September. From ~80M behind, India is now ~100M ahead of continental Europe in vaccinations.
As stated before, ourworldindata has a 1-2 day data collection delay.
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This also shows up in vaccination supply data. Cumulatively, US+EU output slightly exceeds India, but in September, they combine to barely half of India’s output:
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This is an unspoken problem. As the prior India vs other data shows, many are slowing down. It is unclear why. They are a long way from done. India is now projected to take less time than the west.
This is a simple projection, but the slowdown elsewhere is real.
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A great piece of news is ZyCov-D now becoming available in October. It is authorized for 12-17 children, which is critical for school opening:
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swarajyamag.com/insta/first-ba…
October is projected to have 270-280M dose projection of Covishield + Covaxin alone. ZyCov-D now adds to that. If BioE is authorized soon, thats adds more. The available supply at start of month is 51M.
The baseline availability is thus 320-330M, with upside.
10/
Since the daily CoWin tracker is now a pastime, for the cricket fans (@aparanjape ?), in September India did just over a Gavaskar - 239.
In October will we do a
Dravid (270) ?
Laxman (281) ?
Sehwag-lite (293) ?
Sehwag-first (309) ?
Sehwag-max (319) ?
🙂
11/11
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