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Suraj Profile picture
Suraj
@surajbrf
My view of the world
Simply_There 🇮🇳 Profile picture smart-ha Profile picture Savio Dcunha Profile picture 3 subscribed
Apr 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
$669 billion in total exports for the just concluded fiscal year 2021-22 !

Up from just under $500 billion in the COVID-hit 2020-21 and $540 billion in the pre-COVID 2019-20 FY.

This should catapult India into the top 10 exporting countries, for the first time since 1949. There are only three countries on the planet with $1 trillion+ exports - China, USA and Germany. Even Japan is around $850-900B in FY 2021.

India jumped ~10 ranking places to provisionally #8 this year. Positions 4-7 are Japan, UK, France and Netherlands - all $700-900B.
Feb 19, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Updating thread for Feb 19 2022

Today was a day of symmetry as the vaccination total hit 175 crore (1.75 billion), exactly on day 400 since start of vaccination. This corresponds to an average of almost 4.4 million vaccinations a day, over four hundred days.

1/ The monthly total to date is now almost 88 million. February should easily cross 100 million and will likely finish at around 125 million. This is expected as it is predominantly second dose + boosters. March will be much higher as the 12+ group becomes eligible.

2/
Feb 5, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Starting a thread for week ended Feb 5 2022.

This was another quiet week with ‘only’ 38 million doses. January ended as the second highest month for vaccinations, with 215 million doses done:

1/ This Is because the weekly numbers dropped to just 5.5-6.5 million this week, driven mostly by a drop in first dose numbers.

The 15-17 group has received ~6 million second doses, even as their first dose numbers taper.

We will dig into this more.

2/
Feb 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
The V-Dem Report is garbage for the simple reason that both the data and methodology are bogus.

There are 150+ questions to be answered by a panel of ~20 people.

10-20x too many questions. Sample size needs to be 1000x larger.

This cannot mitigate sampling error.

1/ So how do you fix sampling error ? You get a small number of people to agree - keeping pop standard deviation down because sample size is tiny.

Disagreement is a problem - if you get half of them to disagree, your sampling error is 20-45% depending on sample size. Oops.

2/
Feb 2, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
UPI Transaction Volume Crosses $1 Trillion !

Finally it has happened - In the trailing 12 month period (Feb 2021 - Jan 2022), the aggregate UPI transaction volume touched $1.013 trillion, up from $960 billion for the 12 months to Dec 2021.

1/ Total transaction count for the same trailing 12 month period (Feb 2021 - Jan 2022) has crossed 40 billion, to reach 41.06 billion transactions:

2/
Jan 30, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Starting a new thread for week ended Jan 29 2022.

This week ended with vaccinations for January crossing 205 million, the third instance of a month with >200m after Sept and Dec 2021. With two more days left, it should overtake December’s 211 million.

1/ Image The bucket view itself indicates the expected slow week due to Republic Day.

The week still saw 38m vaccinations, more than the population of Canada. A huge number to any other country. However, to make the top 10 weeks in India requires a minimum 51.2m doses in a week.

2/ Image
Jan 15, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Updating for week of Jan 15 2022.

Today is an occasion - day 365 of the Indian COVID-19 Vaccination Effort. Here’s a picture and a table summarizing what’s happened in the past year.

Picture and data collection credit: covid19tracker.in

1/ The week itself was affected by Makar Sankranti / Lohri holidays, dropping down to mid 7 million/day later in the week. However, it still totaled nearly 52 million doses, enough for a place in the 10 best weeks ever:

2/
Jan 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
@NPR do you authorize correspondents to behave in the manner @lfrayer did ? You are publicly funded. You have a very explicit code of ethics. I’m going to post all the ones Ms.Frayer broke here:

npr.org/ethics/

1/ Respect. Fairness. Honesty. Accuracy.

@lfrayer and by extension the @NPR shows none of it here.

2/
Jan 8, 2022 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
Resuming this thread for first week of Jan 2022. A Happy New Year to every one!

The year starts with a bang - 61 million doses in the first full week, the second best ever weekly performance.

Driven by the 15-18 group of whom 22.7 million received first dose since Monday.

1/ Image The past week was the best sustained one week performance: Mon-Sat averaging 9.6 million doses/day, each day over 9m.

Most other good weeks about 1-3 great days. This week was sustained overdrive.

Posting the bucket view anew this year, and also the full data for 2021.

2/ ImageImage
Jan 1, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
A 2021 calendar year end summary of the phenomenon that is UPI:

Transactions: 38.7 billion
Value: ₹71.6 lakh crore ($961 billion)

1/ Calendar year end cumulative value figures:

2021: ₹71.6 lakh cr ($961 billion)
2020: ₹33.9 lakh cr ($454 billion)
2019: ₹18.4 lakh cr ($247 billion)
2018: ₹5.9 lakh cr ($79 billion)
2017: ₹57k cr ($8 billion)

2/
Dec 11, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
New thread for week ended Dec 11th. A quiet high performing week while the nation mourned. #VeeraVanakkam

A solid 53+ million week, well within the top 10, but a lot of competitors between 53-55m keeps it just outside top 5:

Past 3 weeks hold spots 2, 3 and 6.

1/ Daily bucket view is very consistent - five days over 8m being a record, but all in the low 8 million range preventing a larger weekly total.

As with week prior, the week ended with a strong Saturday, which is forming a nice new pattern.

2/
Nov 27, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Starting a new thread for the week ended Nov 27th.

This week was a sleeper hit, coming from nowhere to be the all time 2nd best ever week, with nearly 55 million doses.

It continues the trend of strong vaccination ramp-up since Diwali ended:

1/ With the strong week behind us, full month vaccination has also risen to almost 156 million doses, a great number given that vaccinations were slow for the first 1.5 weeks.

2/
Nov 13, 2021 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Resuming once again after Diwali. The past week saw 38 million vaccinations, close to the 40m threshold of the top 10 best weeks.

The month of Nov (to 13th) has seen 58 million vaccinations, almost equal to the total in May.

1/ The daily performance chart shows the past week very stable at 5.5-6.5m doses a day, typically around 2m first doses and 4m second doses, stabilizing rapidly from the little over 21 million in the week prior due to Diwali.

2/
Nov 2, 2021 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
Long track record of covering India and @narendramodi eh ? Let's look at the past 4 Climate Transparency Reports since Paris 2016, to confirm your tracking capability:

2017: climate-transparency.org/wp-content/upl…

India and US blurbs:

1/ 2018: climate-transparency.org/wp-content/upl…

India, China and US blurbs:

2/
Nov 2, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Your argument confuses different things - a statement on a commitment, with raw data. The right relationship is the one between the talking and the walking the talk.

How many of the G20 are in line with their Paris NDCs ? Just ONE - India.

climate-transparency.org/wp-content/upl…

1/ And another:
germanwatch.org/en/19552

The US sits comfortably among the worst in both.

To quote a movie dialogue, your egos writing checks your country can’t cash.

2/
Nov 1, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
This thread celebrates the occasion of UPI transaction value crossing the $100 billion a month mark, reaching $103 billion in Oct 2021, up from $87 billion in Sept.

npci.org.in/what-we-do/upi…

UPI transaction value grew 18% MoM in Oct, aided by a 17% MoM growth in volume.

1/ Trailing 12 month transaction volume is now 34.5 billion . This is by a distance the most of any country in the world, having gained almost 10 billion from the FY 2020-21 end volume: dazeinfo.com/2021/05/11/rea…

The slope of this graph is going parabolic:

2/
Oct 30, 2021 • 14 tweets • 7 min read
Resuming regular reporting for last week of Oct. Since Dussehra, vaccination has been mostly unremarkable, except that almost every day sees more 2nd doses than first now. This week still sits within the top 10 weeks:

1/ Image October should end a shade under 180 million doses, around the same ballpark as August, despite 1.5 weeks of the Dussehra festivities.

Data below is up to Oct 30th, i.e. one more day remaining in the month.

2/ Image
Oct 23, 2021 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
This week’s update will only briefly cover performance - weekly total likely to be ~42 million, same as late Aug/early Sep rate after 1.5 weeks of festival driven slowdown.

The main topic this week is a numerical dive into the 1 billion doses administered performance.

1/ This is of course just the doses administered within India. Total production is approximately 1.25 billion, including supplies sitting with states, exports and wastage.

Covishield exceeds 1 billion doses produced.
Covaxin exceeds European Moderna output, close to US.

2/
Oct 10, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Updating for Oct 2nd week. It’s known that this is a slow week. How slow ? ‘Only’ 42.5 million, still among the top 8 weeks.

Various theories have been offered regarding this slowdown so we will look at some associated data.

1/ This week, the daily bucket chart also highlights weekday public holidays that affect footfalls:
Eid Jul 21
Janmashtami Aug 30
Ganesh Chaturthi Sep 10
Navratri Oct 7-15

Lesser/regional holidays have been skipped only due to lack of pan-India data impact.

2/
Oct 2, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Updating for the start of October. The prior week had 49 million doses. A soft period coming on the back of successive weeks of high performance dominating the top 5 in this chart:

1/ The primary reason for this is a softness in supply coming on the back of 4 long weeks of high performance. However this is now improving as the graph shows, with the available supply back over 50M :

2/
Sep 20, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Updating for 3rd wk Sept. Slightly delayed due to delayed data update on PIB/MoHFW.

Predictably after the 25M world record on Sept 17, this week is the best ever- 67 million.

This week alone is 2x the total by Europe or North America for the whole September to date.

1/ The daily bucketed performance is unable to show the magnitude of the Sept 17th perf well enough. A simpler expression is:

1. On Sept 17, India did more doses than the rest of the world combined.
3. India accounted for ~60% of doses worldwide that day.

2/