David H. Montgomery Profile picture
"A French history podcaster and enormous goshdang nerd after our own hearts" — @andrewvandam. Host of @thesiecle; senior data journalist with @YouGovAmerica.

Oct 5, 2021, 9 tweets

Today’s #COVID19 data in Minnesota is bad news, almost all around. Not only are cases still rising, but after weeks of plateauing so is average positivity rate — up nearly a full percentage point in a week, to 6.6%, the highest since the tail end of the Fall 2020 wave.

Also concerning: after a period where cases were rising among KIDS but not among ADULTS, right now cases are rising in all age brackets.

That includes seniors 70+.

One bright side: ICU hospitalizations for #COVID19 remain flat. Non-ICU hospitalizations still rising.

#COVID19 deaths are a terrible metric to measure what’s going on with the outbreak — they show what was going on weeks ago, and also have a lot of noise. They’re down a bit the last few days but remain elevated.

While #COVID19 testing continues to grow, this isn’t explaining our current case spike. Cases are growing more quickly than tests.

Cases have even ticked up lately in the Twin Cities metro, which had been flat, though the biggest growth continues to be in Greater Minnesota.

Rates of new vaccination remain low:

And things are actually even worse — some cases that should have been in today’s report were delayed due to a technical issue and will show up tomorrow.

This isn’t just one bad day. I account for that. What’s concerning is that things have been trending the wrong way for a week.

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