Thread by @JSeyff

Gonna start a thread laying out a case as to why @EricBalchunas and I are putting odds at 75% for a Bitcoin Futures ETF coming to the U.S in October. Here's where we view the odds of the ETF getting first approval 1/x

Originally we had ProShares way out in front but as @DaveNadig pointed out in a note. And @tpsarofagis pointed out in the table below-- Valkyrie is the only product that's been filed without reference to Canadian Bitcoin ETFs or other Bitcoin related instruments for exposure 2/x

We have two thought processes here. The First: the SEC has already approved a mutual fund with this exact same Canadian BTC ETF language from ProFunds/Proshares -- BTCFX. So if they approved this why would they deny an ETF with the same language? profunds.com/prospectus/pro… 3/x

The 2nd is that Gensler was pretty damn explicit in his August 3rd comments that started this part of the Bitcoin ETF race -- about being "limited to CME bitcoin Futures". But i honestly feel like we're trying to read the tea leaves like people read the Fed minutes. Who knows 4/x

As to why we are bullish on approval there are a multitude of reasons. 1. Gensler understands crypto. But a key event was the SEC forcing VanEck & ProShares to withdraw their Eth Futures ETFs just 2 days after filing. But didn't for the bitcoin products.. 5/x

Another key event was Gensler's Sept 29 comments where he reiterated support. I mean I can't fathom the SEC deciding to include these comments voluntarily with plans to deny all those ETFs less than a month later. That just pyschopath level cruelty IMO if that happens.
6/x

We're definitely in the minority on our call here as evidenced by this Genesis Trading poll where 71% of respondents said the chances of a launch were 50/50 or less 7/x:

We've been getting lots of questions about size of the CME Bitcoin futures market too. I tweeted about this yesterday 8/x:

Going back a bit to the inclusion of Canadian ETFs. To me this makes sense. Its just another release valve different from moving out on the futures curve. Its logical. Especially after the shitstorm created by $USO in April 2020 when it hit position limits as oil went negative..

Here's my current list of every US/Canada crypto ETF filing (that I'm aware of). It's an absurdly long list and its been a long 8+ years. 10/x

So, what's after this assuming a futures ETF is approved this month? Not sure but it seems like the SEC may want more regulation on the underlying crypto market before approving a 'physical'/spot Bitcoin ETF. Even though we think that structure is a better product for investors.

All of that said. The SEC has pulled the rug on approval so many times before I can't help but wonder what's around the corner. We (and all the potential issuers) are basically Charlie brown trying to kick a football

Also gonna put it out there that we initially went on the record calling for an October approval back on August 24. Soooo we're not just jumping on the bandwagon out of nowhere :) ... Though we've been wrong plenty before haha