Okay too many questions about #Bitcoin ETFs and zero flows -- a few quick thoughts:

1. On any given day, the vast majority of ETFs will have a flow number of ZERO -- this is very normal. There are ~3,500 ETFs in the US. Yesterday 2,903 of them had a flow of exactly zero 2. Shares are created or destroyed in creation units. This ONLY happens when there is a mismatch in supply in demand. And that mismatch has to be large enough to justify tapping the underlying market and a ~bigger mismatch than a creation unit.

It’s happening! @Grayscale just filed to launch the “Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust” expecting this to have a competitive fee. It will trade under the ticker $BTC and will come from a spinoff from $GBTC. This means $GBTC holders will get some % of holdings spun off into $BTC. Here’s the language around the spinoff. There is no fee disclosed yet orrr what % of $GBTC will spin off but pretty sure this will be a non-taxable event for a chunk of those shares to get into a cheaper and cost competitive product.

Wrote about the FTX bankruptcy estate position and sales yesterday. Mainly how they were likely impacting more than just $GBTC $BITW specifically looks like it got hit by a big seller (logical to guess it was FTX)

We have all 9 new ETFs with their DES pages on the Bloomberg Terminal. $IBIT $BRRR $BTCO $FBTC





Here's $BITB, $ARKB, $EZBC, & $HODL

UPDATE: They're just pouring in. We have another spot #Bitcoin ETF S-1 (prospectus) amendment tonight. This one is from @BlackRock. SEC is obviously giving multiple issuers the same or very similar instructions. @BlackRock This one dropped 65 minutes earlier than BlackRock:

https://x.com/JSeyff/status/1731784498101068137?s=20

New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur Delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie at the same time. If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch -- as we believe -- this is the first available window since Grayscale's court victory was affirmed

UPDATE: The first delay order is in. This is for @WisdomTreeFunds spot #Bitcoin ETF filing. As expected delaying for another 45 days. Expecting others to drop shortly CC @EricBalchunas and here's @InvescoUS & @galaxyhq delay

BREAKING: There it is, @Grayscale wins their lawsuit against the SEC. DC Circuit court of appeals is vacating SEC's denial of $GBTC's conversion into an ETF. @Grayscale *This DOES NOT mean $GBTC is automatically converting into an ETF*

But it certainly brings things one step closer.

This is big. It means CBOE and 21shares/Ark also believe this could be the key move for SEC approval. Ark is due August 13th and first in line. *If* it is indeed the silver bullet -- they would be approved first. https://t.co/TLj1oJmWxJ

https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1674055780058771463

The key question here is -- "Is Coinbase a market of significant size?" And I have a note out today talking about this... We think it is.

A LOT of people have asked me to do a thread on the $GBTC, Grayscale, DCG, Genesis situation but primarily with regard to GBTC. First off.. DCG & Genesis own a ton of GBTC. Almost 67 million shares as of 9/30/22. The bulk of that was added in the second quarter 2022. 1/X Vast majority of that massive jump in shares actually happened in one fell swoop when 3AC (remember those guys?) defaulted on a loan from Genesis bc GBTC was used as collateral. This has caused a lot of speculation that $GBTC will have to liquidate. Below is from a 10Q. 2/X

Heres a thread on everything I know about the $RSX situation. First of all -- the fund is completely frozen/halted. Cannot trade it (which we, as a team, think was a bad decision by CBOE). $RSX option contracts rocketed beyond 1 mln contracts worth ~$285 mln right before halting. 2. $RSX also saw ~$600 mln worth of inflows at the end of Feb as people rushed in to call a bottom (Bad move IMO because I think a majority of the holdings are virtually worthless to U.S. investors). The value of the entire fund is about $30 million now... h/t @EricBalchunas

Knew Peter was out of touch based on many of his takes regarding Bitcoin and other things. But my god this is a BAD tweet.

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1504082706598146058

He also spelled 'United States' incorrectly. Which is just a little icing on the cake.

Wanna highlight something I wrote about in December that may be getting overlooked regarding spot #Bitcoin ETF approval (& $GBTC's ETF conversion). We have two Bitcoin futures ETFs going through the infamous 19b-4 process for the first time since $BITO was approved. 1/x 2/x @TeucriumETFs' decision is due on about April 8. Unlike $BITO (which was approved without a 19b-4 process) this one is 1933 act and follows the same process as spot ETFs. Since Vaneck's denial i've said the SEC reasoning suggests a futures ETF would likely be denied too.

Alright -- adding the new filings for the Bitcoin futures ETFs under the 1940 Act. No news from SEC over the next week is a positive for a potential ETF launch in our view. Here's what we consider to be the entire list of active filings in the U.S.

Gonna start a thread laying out a case as to why @EricBalchunas and I are putting odds at 75% for a Bitcoin Futures ETF coming to the U.S in October. Here's where we view the odds of the ETF getting first approval 1/x Originally we had ProShares way out in front but as @DaveNadig pointed out in a note. And @tpsarofagis pointed out in the table below-- Valkyrie is the only product that's been filed without reference to Canadian Bitcoin ETFs or other Bitcoin related instruments for exposure 2/x

Still doing work updating my $GBTC research primer. Complete destruction of GBTC's status as a leveraged bitcoin bet. Historically it almost always offered more extreme returns in either direction during moves. That has completely broken down with the current persistent discount. If $GBTC is ever able to convert to an ETF and BTC price trend is positive during that time, it may act as a leverage play again as the discount closes. Who knows when/if that happens though. Still hasn't stopped $GBTC's trading dominance though. No other fund is remotely close.

Here's a thread with more stats/tables from my gold vs #Bitcoin note. This is my 3rd time doing a piece like this since 2018 and I find that each time gold bugs and bitcoiners both disagree with me on multiple points while favoring their respective side far far more heavily. 1/5 Difference in inflation statistics. 2/5

I took my own dive into Ark ETFs last week as people came out to the wood-work to bash @CathieDWood and @ARKInvest. Sure there are risks for people to be concerned about but there's also a lot of misinformation out there. Market cap and liquidity of stocks showed no pattern. Regression analysis showed nothing in most basic metrics like beta, market cap, liquidity, etc. But taking the firm's stakes in the underlying stocks and their liquidity relative to the size of its position showed a definitive pattern. Heres avg return by quintile in each metric.

Now available on @TheTerminal . Passively managed assets in U.S. ETFs and Mutual Funds sit right around 43% market share and passive is increasing at over 2 percentage points per year. Means we're likely to see majority passive by 2026. Likely earlier if there's a bear market... If you're thinking, "I thought passive was already a majority?" that's probably from domestic equity funds. Which sit around 53.8% passive.