Thread by @DavidAgranovich

Have you seen (false) claims of Southwest Airlines pilots walking off the job? In the spirit of @JaneLytv's debunks, I'll try to break down what seems to be happening 🧵

There's NO evidence so far that a walkout (by ATC or pilots) is to blame for the widespread cancellations. The FAA already released a statement here:

Southwest Airlines' pilot union has also refuted this:

Naturally, Blue-checks and twitterati are already out in force claiming that the vaccine mandate (which several airlines already have) played a part. Again, there's no proof to this.

So what is happening? Let's deconstruct the FAA statement a bit + this email from Jacksonville Aviation Authority's COO Tony Cugno

The FAA requires anyone with an FAA medical certificate to refrain from flying (or controlling) for 48-hours after they get the COVID vaccine. These types of waiting periods are common for pilots, and we don't fly if we aren't fit to fly, even if it's just a head cold.

So what does that FAA statement mean? Jacksonville Center (JAX) is an ATC facility that controls traffic transiting Northern Florida and the Southern coast. Because of COVID, ATC nationwide has been at reduced staffing. With travel increasing, ATC is often stretched thin.

If a Center goes down, which JAX has a few times this year, it can mean aircraft reroutes, flight delays and cancellations, and general inefficiency. news4jax.com/news/local/202…

Airlines have finite #s of crews and aircraft, which means that a plane stuck in Tampa can cause a delay or cancellation of its next leg, and crews commuting on that flight might cause a cascading cancellation or delay for the flights they're supposed to staff.

So take a few planes stuck Florida, crews unable to commute to their flying legs, and add in the management issues that Southwest has been having for a while now, and you've got a recipe for cascading disaster. This already happened with Spirit Airlines: businessinsider.com/spirit-america…

"But David, what about this 'pilot sickout?'" Well, SWA itself isn't seeing any abnormal spike in fatigue or sick callouts, and SWA has had staffing, dispatch, and routing issues for a while. Add to that logistical failures and stuck airplanes/crews, and this is what you get.

TLDR don't listen to the grifters and the disinfluencers, mass transit infrastructure is complex. Pilots, in general, are very open to vaccination because our livelihoods depend on not getting a life-long debilitating illness that could end our careers (#longCOVID)

And if you're a vax-hesitant pilot: I got both shots and am happier knowing I'm protecting my students and passengers, and that I'm less likely to end up with chronic COVID issues that could revoke my medical. Happy to talk if you have questions, my DMs are open.

Coda: