Thread by @RichP_FPL

It’s time for a review of the “#FPL Points as a Metric” Team. In this thread we look back at what the original data predicted and how accurate it was, along with how the team is doing to date, and a look ahead to the Wildcard ahead of #GW8 using the data so far…

#FPLCommunity

As always:

Green teams - scoring lots/conceding lots ✅
Red teams - not scoring/conceding much⛔️

First off, let’s look at the data used initially to draft the team. Up first…Goalkeepers

We had 5 teams with fixtures against 3 of the remaining PL teams that conceded the most #FPL Points to opposition GKs last season:

✅Brentford
❌Everton
❌Leicester
✅Liverpool
✅Spurs

After 7 Gameweeks, Raya (30), Alisson (35) & Lloris (35) are 3 of the top scoring Keepers.

Looking at Defenders, the team with the best opening schedule according to the Metric was…

✅Brentford again.

This was ignored as they were a newly promoted team. But the likes of Pontus Jansson and Ethan Pinnock (both £4.6m) have proved incredible value with 38 points apiece

In Midfield, the teams with good fixtures based on the schedule were:

✅Everton 👀
✅Liverpool
✅Man United
✅West Ham

Everton were also ignored, to our detriment, with 3 of the top 10 scoring midfielders being from The Toffees.

Upfront, there were 3 teams with 3 fixtures vs teams that conceded the most #FPL Points to opposition Forwards last season:

❌Leeds
❌Man United
✅West Ham

With Patrick Bamford injured and Ronaldo only signing in #GW4, the stage was set for Michail Antonio, who duly delivered!

Lessons have been learnt here. I didn’t trust Brentford or Everton despite favourable opening schedules and that has cost the team. Despite being sat at 81k & having made a great start to the season, that was a red arrow from 42k & a sense of “What could of been” is in the air…

So now, we look at this seasons data so far, and potential names/teams on our radar for the Wildcard…

GK:

As you can see, Chelsea top the table for FPL Points scored at GK so far. But in terms of fixtures against teams conceding the most #FPL Points to opposition GKs…

Illan Meslier (£5m) has the best upcoming schedule. Emi Martinez (£5.5m) also has a good run. Both of these are pricy, so maybe the likes of Guaita (£4.5m) or Raya (£4.6m) could be a better option and hope for save points/bonus? Guaita is only 2nd to Meslier for baseline BPS…

But when you look at team stats, you can see why Meslier is racking up points. Leeds have conceded the most SOT (43), 3rd most big chances & only conceded fewer goals than Newcastle/Norwich. Meslier has made the most saves (28) but if Leeds can tighten up he could be a good pick

Next we see Defender Data and see Chelsea top of this table for Points Scored, with MCI, LIV and ARS next. BRE make the top five, highlighting the oversight made not to include them.

LIV have only conceded 37 #FPL points to defenders so far. Norwich have conceded 161!

CHE/MCI results show their DEF units are borderline fixture proof & warrant inclusion regardless. BRE also have a decent long term run. LEE/AVL have good short term schedules. You can see a gap already emerging in the 8 teams conceding the most #FPL Points to opposition Defenders

The Midfield Table shows LIV clear at the top for most FPL Points scored, mainly due to Mo Salah (£12.7m) red hot start. Salah is averaging 10 points per game so far. MCI and EVE going toe to toe on 171/170 but can this battle go on?

Norwich again have conceded the most - 175!

Looking at the fixtures - BRE 3/5 teams conceding the most #FPL Points to opposition Mids in their next 6 games. Bryan Mbeumo (£5.5m) has long been on my radar and will likely come in. CHE/CRY/SOU also have decent runs coming up.

The FWD data shows Newcastle as top of the league for #FPL Points scored by Forwards - Saint-Maximin (£6.8m) being responsible for just over 50% of these on 37 points. Antonio (£8m) delivered on the promising fixtures and Vardy (£10.5m) showing there’s life in the old dog yet!

Interestingly we see WAT in 3rd, WOL in 4th and EVE clinging on despite both DCL and Richarlison being out in recent weeks.

In terms of fixtures, BRE, CHE, LEE and SOU stand out here. With WHU about to hit a tricky patch, is it too much of a risk to go AntoniNO?

With the Home/Away Points Per Game (PPG) Data I note how badly WOL have performed at home, only beating NEW of those 4 games. NOR have been poor both home and away, with LIV hardly conceding any FPL Points to any position regardless of where their games are.

So this is the first version of our Wildcard Draft for The Metric Team. A mixture of picks based on the data and sensible picks. Plenty of cash ITB to get TAA back in, and allows me to be flexible with formation/bandwagons if another player emerges.

GK: Guaita is in for now as at £4.5m, his fixtures are reasonable in terms of the metric. I do have cash to get Meslier if I wish, but this will be for the long term, so will think long and hard about this.

Ben Foster on the bench as a starting £4m is a no brainer.

Double Chelsea based on their status as an Elite Defence combined with nice fixtures. An argument could be made on Double City too, but just Dias for now.

I’m backing Brentford to continue their decent start to the season and Livramento is perfect at his low price point.

Mid: Salah a no brainer, and Douglas Luiz seems like the best option at the £4.5m PP.

Mbeumo finally comes in. Had my eye on him since GW1 and he’s absolute value right now. Raphinha also vastly underpriced so he comes in too.

Zaha I’m unsure of. May punt on Mount?

FWD: Lukaku makes the cut with some tasty upcoming fixtures. Toney and Jimenez also looking good ahead of good runs too. If Bamford was fit I think he’d also be a great option. Adam Armstrong is also on my radar.

This is subject to change before deadline, but a decent opening draft IMO.

Let me know what you think guys - look at the data above and tell me who I’m missing? How can we improve this?

As always, thanks for reading!

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