Alasdair Munro Profile picture
Senior Clinical Research Fellow in Paediatric Infectious Diseases | Clinical trials | Vaccines | Antibiotics | Husband and dad

Oct 15, 2021, 8 tweets

Time for a quick round up of the bizarre world of #COVID19 epidemiology in children in England right now

Hold on to your hats, it's an interesting picture and despite what you might have heard, it's not all bad news! 🧵

1/

Firstly @UKHSA clinical cases

Case ballooned in secondary school age children after a blip on school opening, and after a slight dip (?) now up again

Primary children appeared to continue summer trend upwards, with small school re-entry blip. Now maybe oscillating or up?

2/

This trend is matched by school ages in the @ONS population sampling data

Huge prevalence last week in secondary school age (>8%!), and less than half of this in primary school age

Remember we've been saying for 18m young children are different to older children?

3/

What's particularly interesting is via @ONS there is very little sign of spill-over from teenagers into older ages (small lift in the 35-49yo?), in spite of more suggestion of this in case data (? increased testing)

Vaccines holding up well - let's hope this continues!

4/

Now it gets a bit weird. With all these children infected what's happening with hospitalisations?

Not much!

Lowest rates since before "freedom day" for <5s, and after falling on school opening (?) back up to average summer levels for school age (6-17y) and flat

5/

And just for some context on these rates of admissions, here is what RSV is doing to the <5s compared to #COVID19

On the frontline in ED, #COVID19 fortunately still isn't making a dent on what we see in hospital for kids

6/

I get asked about PIMS-TS/MIS-C and sadly we don't have current surveillance data - however I can report we are seeing a small trickle of cases, WAY below previous peaks, despite much higher community covid numbers

Same reported in US and Europe - no current explanation

7/

Summary:

-Cases WAY up in teens
-Little spill over to parents
-Cases remain surprisingly low in primary children
-Hospitalisations low
-PIMS-TS/MIS-C surprisingly low

If anyone has explanations for the weird parts I'd love to hear them!

8/

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