Important new data:
Tho it will (unjustly) get less attention than the FBI’s crime data, the 2020 National Crime Victimization Survey came out this morning.
Top line takeaway: all categories of reported (this can matter!) victimization declined.
bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/…
In fact, 2020 (reported) victimization levels were lower across all categories than almost any time in the last five years.
This seems to reinforce the claim that what rose in 2020 really was distinctly homicide.
Now, it is essential to note that 2020 was a strange year for conducting an in-person survey, and the BJS and Census had to adapt. So betting some comparative caution needed, but don’t overstate that either.
Also, looks like reporting to the police—always lower than I bet many think, and a problematic precursor to our low arrest-per-report clearance rates—remained roughly constant, tho with some big jumps within categories (esp sexual violence).
We focus so much on FBI data, even tho the NCVS can often tell a very different story.
Like: did crime start to fall in the 1990s or… the 1960s (with an interruption in the late 1989s).
Anyway, the NCVS isn’t a replacement for the UCR, but it’s essential to look at them together.
Honestly, I had expected more increases in the NCVS, esp for less-reported crimes like sexual and domestic violence). Survey data like this is important.
Looking more closely, and am surprised to see that reported violence against Asian Americans fell as well.
Barring some sort of sampling problem, this suggests that 2020 focused attention on this violence more than it caused more total victimization.
Even bigger whoa.
Reported firearm victimizations fell by 27%. Which is... really intriguing.
Could suggest that the "rise in shootings" is a narrative driven by the few cities w shooting data. Or reflects a greater willingness by police to report shootings.
Less big whoa, but still worth noting.
Looks like the decline in victim-reported violence is consistent across urban, suburban, and rural US, though only stat-significant in suburbia.
Prop crime victimization rose in cities, but not stat-sig.
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