Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD: overview of where we are with Covid.

TLDR: Things aren't looking great, SW hit hard by the Immensa lab scandal, admissions climbing quite fast.

Half term should help a lot in the short term. Esp if we accelerate vax. Clear case for Vax Plus. 1/20

On vaccination, home nations between 65 and 71% fulle vaxxed. Good but behind many other high income countries now.

England v slow on 12-15 rollout - 18% vs 36% in Wales & 50% in Scotland.

16-18 yr old data shows vax works 2/20

On boosters - firstly looks like Pfizer booster works phenomenally well - much higher levels of antibodies after 3rd dose and 96% reduction in risk of catching covid after 3rd dose compared to just 1 dose.

So we def want to them in people - & case stronger for under 50s? 3/20

But although England is progressing (almost 50% of over 80s boosted), we are falling behind keeping up with eligible people (over 6 months out) - because we did so well in Jan/Feb, we are NOT keeping up now. An issue.

NB N Ireland has barely started!! 4/20

Note that while boosters are v important, as long as they are only in over 50s, won't nec help transmission that much which is concentrated in kids & their parents' generation.

Kids vax on the other hand will make a big difference (inc 5-11 yr olds when licenced!) 5/20

Overall, cases are very high - and they've been high for a long time.
We've recorded >4 million cases since 27 June which was last time we had fewer than 20K.
That's 4 months of constant drag on health & disruption to lives. 6/20

For the home nations, Wales is highest and increasing rapidly. England going up next fastest. NI high but flat and Scotland lower and flat (but positivity there is increasing).

ONS confirms Wales & England v high but puts NI lower than Scotland - lagged to a few weeks ago? 7/20

Deaths remain relatively high (given vaccination progress) - although far lower than January peak, we've still recorded over 11,000 deaths since 27th June.

ONS death registration confirms than 86% of deaths with Covid are *directly* due to Covid. 8/20

For hospitalisations, people in hospital are going up in Wales & England but down in NI & Scotland, broadly matching case trajectories.

In England hospital admissions have gone up sharply in recent days, 25% of current ICU patients are covid patients & NHS super stretched. 9/20

Let's dig into England data a bit more...

The SW is a clear anomaly both in case rates and positivity rates. The out of step drop in early Sept *should* have been picked up much quicker.

It's not the only region affected but is the worst affected. 10/20

And the SE has seen a rapid increase in hospital admissions 3 weeks since the testing problems began (2 Sep) - ie enough time for chains of transmission to start from people wrongly believing they were negative.

This scandal will have lasting health consequences. 11/20

The other noticeable things are low London levels (some due to prev infection & cities in general being lower right now). London seeing sharp recent hosp admissions - but also has a less vaxxed population.

NE & Yorks continue to have highest burden of severe Covid cases. 12/20

Looking at local authorities in the SW you can see some local authorities have been hit harder than others - Cornwall and South Devon least affected.

More transparency from UKHSA on which areas affected would be very helpful. 13/20

You can also see that the impact on the SW is across *all ages* - highest in school age kids & their parents' generation 14/20

Bu age, cases still by far highest in school age kids - particularly 10-14 year olds. Still rising too - but hopefully half term will provide a natural break.

But all age groups now rising again... 15/20

This chart by @PaulMainwood using ONS Infection Data modelled prevalence by year of age shows beautifully how rampant infection in kids spread to parents and most recently grandparent generation. 16/20

And we are seeing this now in hospital admissions. Rising in all age groups 17/20

So that's where we are. As latest SPI-M models show future is uncertain - boosters & kids vax will have a big impact but we need to speed up. Half term will help.

But winter is coming, NHS is struggling, there's AY.4.2

18/20

That why @IndependentSage is calling for a "Vaccine Plus" approach, as are the British Medical Association, NHS confederation, the Unions and other scientists. 19/20

And we need a lot more clarity about what happened with the Immensa lab scandal and what measures are being taken to ensure it can't happen again. 20/20