Thread by @jpr007

EUROPE BEVs - 2021 Q3

Here are the charts to go with the data

1. While the European BEV market in 2021 is much bigger than it was in 2020, the growth surge has stabilized to some degree

- probably because of constraints on vehicle supply

2. The Chinese BEV market continues to be both larger and growing more strongly than the European BEV market

- with important implications for participants in each market

3. VW AG Group has now taken the largest BEV market share in Europe

- but both their volume and market share are showing an unstable and declining trend

*** Note : we have not yet found a number from them for 2020 Q4

4. VW AG have no direct sales in China, with all the vehicles reported under their name actually being manufactured, marketed and sold by SAIC Group and FAW Group

The volumes and share have been very small

- although some improvements were seen in 2021 Q3

5. Tesla's volume in Europe in 2020 was impacted by COVID constraints and has been recovering in 2021

- but it is clear that they need to have the local production that will come from the new Gigafactory in Grünheide

2022 will be an important transition year for Tesla in Europe

6. Tesla's production volume in China has accelerated remarkably in 2021 with the ramping of the Model Y line

- but growth in sales volume within China has been more subdued as Shanghai has taken over the role of global export hub from Fremont

7. The impression is that Tesla needs still more production capacity in Shanghai

- along with a product line expansion to include a smaller-sized car with a significantly lower price point

8. Even though Tesla is about to bring on line a large amount of new capacity from both Austin and Grünheide, this observer feels that Demand is going to continue running far ahead of Supply in the BEV market and Tesla needs to be already building yet more capacity worldwide

9. This condition is hardly surprising in the light of this singular chart