You've seen the bad vax mandate headlines, the ones the emphasize the people who left even though 99% complied.
I wrote about the cognitive biases and partisan incentives behind these headlines.
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donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-explain…
One thing I want to do with my blog is connect research with the real world. Once you understand denominator neglect then you understand the misleading effect of headlines that emphasize those who quit rather retain those who comply with mandates.
Stories of the rare resisters frame how we think about successful vaccine mandates.
Research by @AsmusOlsen shows that while people say they prefer statistical data to make health decisions, in reality they find anecdotes more memorable and compelling. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-explain…
The rush to find a compelling anecdote can lead to some poorly researched headlines:
Dozens of troopers are quitting! (No, just one)
Student drops out b/c of mandate! (University does not have a mandate, no plans to adopt one). donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-explain…
The other important bias is motivated reasoning. Vaccine resisters have adopted misinformation or conspiracy theories shared by conservative news outlets, are then profiled by those same outlets, and watched by people who share their political beliefs. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-explain…
The irony for the vax resisters quitting their jobs and being profiled on Hannity and Tucker where they parrot Fox News talking points is that Fox News would never hire them.
Why?
Because Fox News was an early adopter of vaccine mandates for the simple reason that they work.
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