Couple charts I think are interesting. First is that LA ports are unloading small ships and wait is now around a month to unload from anchoring.
Scarcity effect will continue for some time given that backlog.
1/x
We have the Survey of Professional Forecasters next month and the revisions are likely to pick up at least 10bp for 22 & 23.
That will go into the FOMC SEP.
2/x
We're pricing a lot for the Fed but there is still scope for front to steepen.
3/x
Rates positioning by the market is short but not max short. So we can still get some movement.
4/x
And the pricing of liftoff for the ECB is still "tame". I expect pushback (given Lane's transitory comments) but the risk is for the market to tell Lagarde differently.
Though short EURUSD makes sense (as market would then price a more aggressive Fed imo).
5/5
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