Thread by @sfrantzman

🧵 One of the most misleading narratives is the claim that the US or Israel threaten “war” with Iran…not only is it the other way around, but it’s all a scam because Iran can’t afford a real “war”…you really think a regime like that would risk the results of such conflict

Consider for a second a member of the Iranian theocratic abusive regime, would be risk losing all that power in a conflict, he knows the average people despise him, he knows he crushed protests before

The Iran regime CANNOT afford war and does everything possible to avoid it, either through threats and boasting and bluffing or working with China, Turkey and Russia or by moving proxy pawns around Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen to put the “conflict” somewhere else

Iran is a chess player, the regime is the king, it is feeble and weak but it has arrayed ♟ pawns all over to put the frontline far from home and create three thousand miles of potential underbelly it can strike at far from home, from the Gulf of Oman to Quneitra

That is why it is always nonsense when someone says that recent US statements mean their could be “war” this is just fear mongering talking point nonsense.

Ask these people who speak of “war”…HOW would a war take place. How would the Iran regime many of them adore and want to protect by creating a war narrative, how would it risk war? Are they kidding?

Iran’s regime doesn’t fight wars at home. It was traumatized by the war with Iraq in the 1980s that almost strangled the “revolution” in its cradle. Since then it decided to do a forward policy of proxy wars in the near abroad, strategic depth

So when anyone says that if there isn’t a deal there may be “war” they are being either naive, deceptive or purposely lying. The regime can never risk war with the US or Israel. It can accept certain amounts of low level conflict and sabotage and proxy conflict but not war

That is why Iran boasts a lot about war but what it invests in is PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY attacks using drones and rockets and piracy at sea and harassing ships with speedboats and empowering militias and recruiting Afghan kids for the IRGC in Albukamal

Iran will indeed fight conflicts to the last Iraqi PMU, the last poor Syrian, the last poor Shi’ite Hezbollah member, the last Houthi, but how many IRGC members lay down their lives? Not many.

Iran had its “great patriotic war” in the 1980s and saw enough martyrs, those old greying men who run the regime know the horror of war and don’t want more

The regime elites have their aesthetic, the ostensibly austere regime, those types like Ahmadinejad or Soleimani who supposedly had monk-like existence with no possessions like they are Franciscan friars…but massive war is not for them

Iran is a calculating regime. Zarif and friends spreads the “deal or war” lie to western publics they try studied snd focus-grouped this concept via opeds to see if fear of more “Middle East conflict” would scare people in the West.

Westerners want peace…Iran fears war…so HOW can there ever be war????? Israel also doesn’t want war and Israel is so far from Iran it can’t ever have a real “war” with Iran. THINK about it. It can’t happen. Just proxies and some strikes or incidents but not total war

So since we all know this, let’s stop the misleading story. Absence of a deal might mean some tensions and nuclear blackmail and if Iran crosses a nuclear red line and tries to detonate a device at home there will be attempts to prevent that.

That’s like if someone tried to stop the guys at Los Alamos from the test in 1945…..but that’s not war, that’s trying to stop a stupid act by a regime that is far too smart to ever really detonate a nuclear weapon anyway…think about it

Everyone knows that when Iran is at the threshold it will get a call from it’s new friends in China and it’s old friend in Moscow and also it’s partner in Ankara who will say “ok you scared the West but don’t do the next step”….

And they is why there can never be war. Iran can risk it. It’s friends will advise it. And that’s how things work. Learn and study the Iranian regime method. Read the Iranian media. Stop listening to western commentators who invented the “war” bogeyman.