What is the “pro-Palestinian front”? I would think being pro-Palestinian would mean helping build universities and improving infrastructure while working toward two states. What does this have to do with Assad and backing Iran and Hezbollah, who have done nothing but use Palestinians, usually facilitating arms transfers and encouraging them to fight so they lose chances at statehood I think we have to analyze, unpack and challenge the theory about the “pro-Palestinian” crowd in the west, many of whom only cheer on Palestinian “resistance” which brings disasters. They never cheer on Palestinians who build a university or build something. But if they fight and a building is destroyed in the battle then some westerners living comfortable lives will cheer

Some people see Oct 7 as primarily linked to the Iran-backed axis. However, in my view it’s much more closely linked to the long-term goal of Ankara and Doha. Both host Hamas and backed Oct 7. Both are western allies which gives Hamas much more clout than Hezbollah or the Assad regime had Iran’s goal in backing Hamas was to exploit the Israel-Palestinian conflict to have a “foot” within what it believed was a popular Arab and “Sunni” cause. It already had PIJ as a proxy, it wanted to grow outside this narrow niche. To do that it promised to knit Hamas into its network of proxies

The Al-Hol test is going to be an interesting one. There are a lot of people who used to be very critical of the SDF detention of ISIS members there. These types of people usually were sympathizers either with Ankara or HTS. Now HTS is in power. So logically they should want Al-Hol handed over to Damascus. But I bet they will think twice about this. Let's review the backstory here. In 2019 ISIS was defeated by the SDF in Syria east of the Euphrates. ISIS didn't fight to the end, it knew the US-led Coalition won't massacre the last ISIS members, so they actually surrendered in masses. Thousands of them, including many foreign fighters and their families.

The Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D) at the Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD) "announces today (Monday) the completion of a series of cumulative deals with Elbit Systems for the supply of advanced communication systems to the IDF, totaling approximately $130 million (about half a billion shekels)."

Photo Credit: Elbit Systems "The Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D) at the Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD) announces today (Monday) the completion of a series of cumulative deals with Elbit Systems for the supply of advanced communication systems to the IDF, totaling approximately $130 million (about half a billion shekels)."-IMOD

I'm going to be contrarian here. There is a lot of talk about how the fall of the Assad regime is a major blow to the Iranian "axis" and thus Israel is in a stronger position in the region. Temporarily this may be true, but something will fill the vacuum left by Iran and its possible that Doha-Ankara will do so, and they back Hamas and Hamas did Oct. 7. Some of this discussion asserts that the Hamas attack on October 7 set in motion Israel's war on Hezbollah from Sept. 23-Nov. 27 and weakened Hezbollah and this helped lead to the end of the Assad regime.

One of the missed opportunities in US policy in the region in the last decade was the failure to take into account the successful model of the SDF in Syria and try to find a way to build on that success. The problem was that the SDF was primarily the initiative of the anti-ISIS coalition and therefore a military "by, with and through" approach. However when it came to US diplomacy and State the SDF was always kept at arm's length, as a "non-state" actor.

I’m at the Defense Tech Summit at Tel Aviv University today where a lot of the future of defense tech is being discussed, with a focus on the Israel ecosystem and also start-ups here and Israel’s large defense sector It’s a full auditorium here with clearly a lot of interest in this field of innovation that combines hi-tech and defense; a lot of talk of AI and also recent operational successes of the tech

israel's minor incursion into a buffer zone on the Golan, where no people live, is being portrayed as a major story; while Ankara attacking Tal Rifaat, Manbij and Kobani and killing civilians and displacing tens of thousands of people, primarily Kurds, is not even covered.

Manbij was the site of a long tough battle against ISIS by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Yet, now it has been handed over to Ankara-backed extremists who have a long track record of massacring people, kidnapping and extrajudicial murders, especially targeting women and minorities.

There has been a lot of comments about how Sinwar's October 7 attack led to the defeat of Hezbollah and fall of Assad and thus the weakening or defeat of the "axis of resistance." This is one way to look at linear string of events, but it may not tell us enough about the future. The Hamas attack on October 7 took place in the backing Hamas received from Iran and also Doha; it was hosted in Doha not Iran and it enjoyed support from two western allies; Qatar and Turkey. This is important because it framed the context in which Hamas thought it could get away with Oct. 7.

Things to watch as the Syrian regime collapses. While there is a lot of positive feelings and celebrations by those taking back cities that the regime destroyed or held for years. There are a lot of things that could shift due to various issues and agendas. Turkey pushing for a new invasion of Syria or attack on the SDF. Ever since HTS took Aleppo, the Ankara-backed SNA have not helped topple Assad, but have instead solely focused on attacking Kurds. This is because their masters in Ankara only care about fighting the SDF, and haven't cared about toppling Assad since 2015. This could lead to a new conflict in Syria, just as Syrians are having such success toppling the regime without much of a fight. Ankara could seek to create a new war and new movements of IDPs as it already has in Tal Rifaat.

Last night I went out with IDF forces for a series of raids to detain suspects in neighborhoods of Bethlehem. The IDF characterized this as an operation in which security forces made arrests of wanted individuals, interrogated dozens of suspects, and searched and found weapons and incitement materials. A thread of my photos and how it went down. The soldiers prepared for the operation prior to midnight at a base in Gush Etzion. The forces involved in the operation operated as part of the Etzion brigade. These currently also include members of the Tavor battalion of the Search and Rescue Brigade. The operation was accompanied by IDF reservists from the 8208th Infantry Battalion.

Key factors to watch in Syria amid the rapid developments.

1. HTS advances: HTS is heading south toward Damascus along the road that links major cities such as Hama and Homs. If it continues on this route that is important. Others factors may try to divert its advance HTS manpower: HTS has put in the field what appears to be a well trained force that waited for this for years. As it takes over swaths of Syria this could be strained

Road to the Ceasefire Day 2

Defense Minister Israel Katz to the UN Special Envoy to Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert: “We will act against any threat, anytime and anywhere; we demand effective enforcement from UNIFIL, every house in southern Lebanon that is rebuilt and a terrorist base is established in it will be demolished, every terrorist arming and organization will be attacked, every attempt to smuggle weapons will be thwarted, and every threat to our forces or Israeli citizens will be destroyed immediately."

Photo credit: Israel Ministry of Defense Katz emphasized that what happened before in Lebanon, will not happen again. “At the beginning of the meeting, Defense Minister Katz emphasized that the State of Israel will not compromise on the sense of security of the residents of the north, and that their return to their homes is the ultimate goal. Within this framework, a situation in which Hezbollah re-arms and strengthens in Lebanon under the watchful eyes of UNIFIL and the Lebanese army will no longer be possible,” Katz’s office said.

I doubt Doha will ever give up its asset Hamas, this has been a huge card that Doha was dealt in 2012 and is immensely profitable and holding onto the card is also a game winner for them, they can use it for leverage over the U.S., Israel, Hamas, Iran. They hold the lever that can heat up or turn down the war in Gaza and wars throughout the region by Iran’s proxies and they control the fate of 101 hostages. It’s massive for them. Doha happened upon this strategy almost twenty years ago. While other countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE were turning against extremism, they realized that by openly hosting extremists they would get more leverage with the U.S. and the west because they could say “as long as we host them we can stop them attacking you”…so they could openly fund these groups and spread extremism via their media. The U.S. actually critiqued other countries more for terror finance than Doha which openly financed Hamas

There are only two sides to the mob violence in Amsterdam.
-One side supports having police presence to protect people from mob violence.
-One side supports mob violence and argues that it is justified and excuses it and say "what about" and "they started it." You're either on the side of mobs taking over cities, or on the side of peace and law and order.

There's no third side here. The side that backs the attacks on the Israeli fans has only one response, which is to claim the Israelis "started it." They never argue police should arrest the Israelis

The fact that Hamas was hosted by Doha encouraged Hamas to kidnap people and hold them hostage because it knew it could than do talks in Doha. It actually increased suffering in this respect. Because it incentivized Hamas to take hostages and target civilian areas to get hostages Think of a different scenarior where Hamas was only hosted by Iran, a country that doesn't negotiate with Israel and can't "mediate." Hamas would have no incentive to take hundreds of hostages. Hamas would still want to attack, but it would be able to use a western ally as mediator

It increasingly looks like Doha may be trying to "play" this issue to get maximum benefit for itself. It poses as a mediator but it's real goal is now to appear to pause mediation in order to pressure Israel, it seems.

https://twitter.com/ElizHagedorn/status/1855325263313420656

The reports about Hamas leaders being asked to leave Qatar or their office being closed may now be twisted by Doha such that it becomes about how, if the Hamas office is closed, then who will mediate.

I've noticed a trend in discussions about the attack on Israelis, Jews and others in Amsterdam after a game. Those who support the attacks or excuse them always claim it was Israelis who "provoked" it via chants or some other activity. What you'll notice is that those who excuse the attacks never argue that police should have made sure to protect people. The people who say "both sides" did something also never say police and authorities should have prevented the violence.

The question these comments raise go to the heart of what the goals are of the current war. When the war began the Hamas atrocities were compared to ISIS and the Israeli public was told there won’t be Hamas in Gaza.

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1854735438315139270

A year later with Hamas continuing to control a large part of Gaza, even though it has diminished “capabilities”, it appears that at the highest levels there was a dispute not about removing Hamas but more about even whether to keep troops in Rafah and Netzarim corridors.

The firing of Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is a potential major shakeup of Israel’s war effort after a year of war, removing a key pillar of stability at a time when Israel faces Iranian threats and a war on multiple fronts; a 🧵 on Gallant Gallant has been a symbol of the war effort and a symbol of decency, modesty and iron will during the war. He always wore black after October 7, an embodiment of the empathy and tragedy of October 7 and mourning the losses. He was willing to meet with and face the victims in the communities

Something I always wondered about the October 7 war is this: Prior to Oct. 7 the assessment in Israel was that Hamas was "deterred" and this went along with a view that it was not a major threat. The day after October 7 the assessment was that Hamas has 24 battalions and will take years to defeat.

There are wider lessons to be learned from this question, and I will detail them. What bothers me about this switch from "it's deterred and not a threat" to "it will take years to defeat it" is not only the lack of introspection about how this could happen, but also why so few people prior to Oct. 7 assessed that Hamas was a threat and would be hard to defeat.