Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Middle East security analyst, Phd, author of #TheOctober7War bylines @Jerusalem_Post @BreakingDefense adjunct fellow @FDD Exec Dir @MidEast_Center @GulfIsrael;
Chris Bugbee Profile picture Barbara Profile picture Sue Strong @strong_sue@mastodon.sdf.org 🇺🇦 Profile picture M Farblon Profile picture Joshua Cypess Profile picture 19 subscribed
Sep 17 5 tweets 1 min read
You can note the talking points put out by the anti-Israel, pro-Hezbollah crowd after the pager attack. It consists of claims the attack was "indiscriminate" and that it harmed civilians and that it is a "terrorist" attack.

It's so interesting and predictable. It's also so obvious. Every time there is an incident, whether it was the hostage rescue in Gaza, or this, there is always a talking point factory. The arguments they make are never original. It's always just the same talking point repeated again and again.
Sep 16 19 tweets 4 min read
Question: Almost a year after the October 7 attack, which plunged the region into a massive war, have you seen any articles about Middle Eastern countries or western countries conducting an internal probe into why their intelligence services didn't get wind of Hamas plans and warn? Israel has been looking into intelligence failures on October 7 and there are resignations and also many articles about this issue. However, when one looks at western countries, such as close allies of Doha, where Hamas leaders reside, there doesn't seem to be much concern.
Sep 15 12 tweets 3 min read
🧵 I’ve been thinking about how Hamas uses schools in Gaza systematically to hide and to use as command centers in their ongoing war. I’ve also been thinking about the right of kids in Gaza to have an education free from Hamas men illegally using their classrooms. What if the international community prioritized protecting Gaza’s children from Hamas and not letting Hamas into schools. What if they mandated UN schools have camera CCTV feeds and transparency about who enters the schools and who is employed there.
Sep 15 10 tweets 2 min read
One of the reasons the intl community doesn’t condemn the Houthi and Hezbollah attacks on Israel strongly is because of the intl perspective that these are “non-state actors”…and thus not held to the same account as “states”. But this concept is outdated. When “non-state” actors have more weapons than the state they are in, such as 150,000 rockets and missiles as Hezbollah does, or long range missiles as the Houthis have, they should be treated as a state.
Sep 15 14 tweets 4 min read
IDF: Sirens sounded in central Israel. Image IDF: Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in central Israel, a surface-to-surface missile was identified crossing into central Israel from the East and fell in an open area. No injuries were reported. Image
Sep 10 11 tweets 3 min read
The Norwegian Refugee Council put out a statement saying "Gaza: Al-Mawasi strikes show ‘humanitarian zones’ are in name only"...but what I'd like to know is why the entire statement doesn't reference Hamas at all. Hamas is the one who sent commanders INTO THE humanitarian zone. It's Hamas activist that shows humanitarian zones are in name only. Not Israel's REACTION.Image When I got the statement from them, I thought it's possible they didn't mention Hamas, but what about "armed groups" which is the usual Orwellian phrase used by NGOs...and it's not in there either. Nor is the Orwellian "militant." No mention at all.
Sep 10 18 tweets 4 min read
Every single time in Gaza that the local Hamas-run authorities allege a massacre took place, it ends up being smoke and mirrors, where they purposely pump out false numbers to create headlines and get the UN and other countries to condemn...and then later it turns out the numbers are much lower and many casualties are likely Hamas members. This is part of a whole ecosystem in Gaza that has been hijacked by Hamas. It has taken over hospitals, schools, shelters and now is using the humanitarian zone to operate. Wherever there are civilian institutions or anything linked to the UN or NGOs, Hamas is there and Hamas turns it into a node of its control.
Sep 8 11 tweets 3 min read
A rare terror attack at Allenby bridge, from Jordan. Not a good development.

IDF: "Following the initial report, a short while ago a terrorist approached the area of the Allenby Bridge from Jordan in a truck, exited the truck, and opened fire at the Israeli security forces operating at the bridge. The terrorist was eliminated by the security forces, three Israeli civilians were pronounced dead as a result of the attack. IDF soldiers were dispatched to the scene and are currently operating to rule out the suspicion of the truck being rigged with explosives, further details to follow." Key elements here that are concerning: The suspect was armed and opened fire. This is part of the larger context of smuggled weapons that have become a threat.
Sep 5 11 tweets 3 min read
This is a great example of how intl orgs manipulate information in this conflict. This report is about the West Bank but it’s basically a version in miniature of how reports on Gaza are manufactured in The main way that they irresponsibly report details is by classifying every Palestinian male gunmen as if they are a civilian. However when Israeli security forces or police are killed they are specified as Israeli “forces.”
Sep 1 4 tweets 1 min read
From the first day it was clear that a message to Doha that it would lose its "major non-NATO ally" status and face consequences for hosting Hamas, whose leaders sat in Doha since Oct. 7 calling for more attacks and coordinating with Iran and Iranian proxies...would have produced results. Remember the first weeks after Oct. 7, how Hamas released four women, two of them elderly, likely at the behest of Doha to show that Doha could get back US citizens and elderly vulnerable people. All that the West had to do was keep up the pressure.
Aug 28 24 tweets 5 min read
Reuters has a new report from Gaza "Hungry Gazans face crippling price rises as war rages"...the report looks at how costly many products are in Gaza. This has been common since early in the war. Why? Because Hamas and armed gangs it empowers steal the aid and re-sell it. "Prices of basic commodities have more than quadrupled since the conflict began, piling pressure on families already traumatized"...

Where do the commodities come from? Many of them come from humanitarian aid that is supposed to be provided to people for FREE...but which the NGOs and intl community allows to be stolen as part of a multi-decade partnership with Hamas.
Aug 28 4 tweets 1 min read
The visit by IDF Chief of Staff to the Jordan Valley is important because there are growing security concerns of threats from the northern West Bank and also iran-backed smuggling via Jordan Image “Yesterday (Tuesday), the Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi, visited the Jordan Valley Brigade. The Chief of the General Staff toured with commanders the area where the terrorist that fired at the Beka'ot community was eliminated two weeks ago, and held a situational assessment with the commanders regarding the eastern border and security efforts in Samaria and the Jordan Valley.”
Aug 27 4 tweets 1 min read
Note the close proximity to a UN site. The UN in Gaza and Lebanon basically acts as a magnet for terror groups to hide next to and because rhetoric UN never reports on their presence or condemns it, it becomes a willing participant in this attempt by these groups to have combat occur near UN facilities and civilian areas. This systematic use of areas near UN facilities is not a coincidence or just the terrorists doing it; the UN orgs have made clear through decades of work in Gaza and Lebanon that this modus operandi is acceptable and they are willing to be used like this, otherwise there would by a mountain of reports from the UN noting the presence of Hezbollah and Hamas.
Aug 26 8 tweets 2 min read
What's interesting is people retweet this "data" below...when the organization that made it openly calls attacks on Israel "strikes on occupied Palestine"...it defines all of Israel as "occupied." In case you wanted a reminder of the real agenda of this war on Israel...and how the "two state" crowd became the "all of Israel is Palestine" crowd. The lesson here is, first of all, don't trust an organization that claims to create "data" on a conflict where they are so biased they openly deny the existence of one of the countries in the conflict.
Aug 25 16 tweets 3 min read
The long-term question is which side benefits from this managed conflict that always falls short of a major war. Hezbollah maintains its position in Lebanon, does it suffer major recpercussions? Israel in the meantime becomes a battleground, such that northern Israel has had to be evacuated for ten months, children will go to school for a second year away from their homes. Hezbollah achieves the turning of northern Israel into a contested region.
Aug 25 9 tweets 2 min read
One lesson from this round of IDF pre-emptive strikes and Hezbollah's attempt at its largest barrage to date, is that while Hezbollah may have 150,000 rockets, it's not actually that easy to prepare to launch large numbers of them at the same time without detection. Now one might argue that Hamas was able to prepare the Oct. 7 surprise attack, which included launching thousands of rockets in the first day, so therefore Hezbollah could do the same. The issue Hezbollah faces is that Israel has been more concerned about a Hezbollah attack for years, so it doesn't have the benefit of complacency that Hamas enjoyed before Oct. 7
Jul 31 10 tweets 2 min read
INSIGHT into why the loss of Haniyeh matters most of all for Hamas. Hamas wanted to leverage Oct. 7 to come to power in Ramallah. The Iranian axis was working to bring Haniyeh and Hamas to power and replace the PA. China was brokering the talks with the 14 factions to accomplish it Ankara and Doha were working closely to coordinate this goal. The reason Doha dragged out the hostage talks was to bring Hamas more clout and enable it to survive in Gaza and then get a deal that would let it release hostages slowly, to take over the West Bank.
Jul 31 5 tweets 1 min read
Some talking point is circulating asking how Israel was able to carry out a precision strike in Iran but "then why were there so many civilian casualties in Gaza." This talking point misses the truth about Hamas. In Iran, Hamas feels comfortable and doesn't have human sheilds. In Gaza, Hamas purposely hides among civilians and uses schools and shelters to hide, its men all dress in civilian clothes and they tunnel under civilian homes. Hamas exploits Palestinians in Gaza and uses them and destroys their lives so Hamas can profit.
Jul 31 9 tweets 2 min read
Why do people pretend there is a difference between the “political wing” of Hamas and the “military wing”…you don’t do this when discussing states or political parties in most of the world. Only with terrier groups do they get this privilege of a “political” wing that everyone pretends is divorced from the murderous part of the group. But the fact is that terror groups are the same as states, which many of them seek to supplant.
Jul 31 10 tweets 2 min read
🧵 Key Hezbollah and Hamas terror leaders eliminated: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration of the new Iranian president. He had completed key meetings with the Iranian Supreme Leader yesterday. He met with the head of the PIJ also. They likely coordinated actions against Israel. Haniyeh was killed overnight before he could go back to Doha. The context of this is important. Other terror leaders had gathered in Tehran. Also Israel has ramped up its elimination of key terror leaders in the last months
Jul 29 4 tweets 2 min read
I am thrilled to announce the release of my new book, 'The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza.'
While I've covered numerous Gaza wars, this one has been harrowing and long. Awakened by Hamas rocket fire on October 7, 2023, I began covering the conflict from its very first day.Image This book captures that experience, blending the accounts of soldiers, first responders and civilians who endured the Hamas massacre. It tells the story of the commanders and soldiers who have spent nearly a year fighting to restore security to Israel. amazon.com/October-War-Is…