Thread by @AlexanderBrkr

🚨 THREAD

With Spurs scoring just 9 goals in 9 games, plenty of fans completely disassociated with the side and #Nunoout trending every matchday....here's a data led look into the decline of Spurs this season...and beyond📊

DISCLAIMER:

All stats are from FBREF - I have watched Spurs this season a few times, but the numbers are just there for conversation - not completely for conclusions

"But...they're 6th? Nuno got manager of the month? 🤔🤔🤔"

Yes, and this thread will not end saying Nuno must go. However, Spurs have been turgid at points this season;

-In the Arsenal game, their defensive shape was shambolic
-They lack ANY creativity

There's a lot going on..

GOALKEEPING 🧤

Is Hugo Lloris at fault? Spurs have conceded 13 goals this season, more than Southampton!

However, Lloris has made Spurs look better than they actually are.

By PSXG - Goals Conceded, the 🇫🇷 national has been the 4th best in the league!

PSXG - Goals conceded:

This is Post Shot Expected Goals, take away goals conceded. PSXG is a measure of the quality of non-penalty shot at goal - I.E, a rocket to the top corner🚀

Spurs have been expected to concede 13 non penalty goals - Lloris has conceded 12 - doing well.

THE DEFENCE 🔓

Spurs are conceding 1.44 goals per game, and they finished last season with 1.18 GA per game.

Has the defence gotten worse?

Actually by the data, no! Here's a small overview of their defensive stats, compared to 20/21.

🔒 Oppositions shots are off-target more often
🔒 The distance opposition shots are taken from has barely changed
🔒 The NPXG per shot against has notched down by 0.01

NPXG per shot, is non-penalty expected goals per shot value.

What this measures is the quality of the average non-penalty shooting *chance*. The lower the number against, the better.

As you can see, the average shot against Spurs is of the second-lowest quality in the league!👍

Also lmao Man United are of course top what a shambolic team, on par with Norwich 😭😭😭

Spurs are one of the few teams in the league, yet to be registered in making a direct error leading to goal!

I think Spurs will be fine at the back as time goes on!

This is backed up by their pressing numbers too:

Spurs have actually made the 7th most pressures in the Premier League this season - that's not to say it's cohesive, but it shows the work rate is there 🔋

However this is where we can start to compare to 18/19 - I choose this because it was Poch's last, final season in charge.

I will continue this comparison from now, because things are gonna get ugly from here 😅

Even though Spurs are pressing a lot, it doesn't compare to 18/19:

18/19 total pressures: 153.2 p90
21/22 total pressures: 144.2 p90 📉

Spurs this season also have the 3rd least pressure-success rate in the league - so perhaps this work isn't the most productive🤷‍♂️

POSSESSION AND PROGRESSION ⬆️

Okay it's been a nice start, but let's turn the heat on now:

Despite holding the 9th most possession in the league, Spurs sit 13th for progressive actions in the Premier League.

Progressive actions: this refers to carries and passes, collected from FBREF - they have a glossary to see the exact definitions, but it is essentially how it sounds.

Passes and 'dribbles' that move the ball up the pitch. Spurs...not so good at dat.

Who isn't pulling their weight?

Well it's the defence.

Here's a damning comparison with the 18/19 season - Vertonghen & co were great at moving the ball up in buildup play - Eric Dier and Romero are non existent.

It's mad how Hojberg and Skipp even fall behind Harry Winks, and Moussa Sissoko 😅😅😅

Interestingly though, Spurs are still taking 22% of their touches in the final third.

That compares well to Leicester, who are around the same figure from a study I did a couple weeks back.

However, the final third is where the decline has been completed 😬

CHANCE CREATION🎯
So you may have seen @matthayesthfc tweet, that he had been *shook* by some data I showed him.

Since 2017/18, Spurs have taken LESS AND LESS touches inside the attacking penalty box per game🤯

In 17/18, they came 5⃣th for this metric

21/22? .....1⃣8⃣th

That's right:

In 17/18, they came 5⃣th for this metric
21/22: 1⃣8⃣th

No lies, you can see it here. Spurs are less penetrative than Burnley, and even Newcastle.......

But that's not all!

Remember NPXG - non penalty shot expected goals? I.e. The measure of quality of non-penalty shooting chances?

Well that's declined nearly every year too! 😂

Oh you want more numbers?

Well 17/18: Spurs were 3rd in the league for this metric!

21/22? ............17th 😅😅😅😅

That decline is f**king terrifying for Spurs.

They have gone from one of the best attacks maybe in Europe, to one of the worst in the Premier League. Shocking.

Want to be more depressed? Okay!

Here are the rankings for pure expected goals each season from 2017/18 - 20/21

The 🔴represents Spurs, with the🟢showing teams behind them.

Like the Amazon rainforest, things are getting a whole lot less greeny 😅

"Well, who is to blame for this? What's happened to the players?"

Let's see!

I took Shot-Creating-Actions numbers from Spurs
ST, CAM, LM, RM, LB, RB
for each season from 2017/18 to 21/22.

Reason being, it gives a decent outlook into how each position has declined/changed.

Look at Kane - going from a pure finisher, to a carrying the creativity 🧳

You can see how dramatically these numbers have fallen since that golden period.

It shows that Spurs are creating less shots, and how they miss players like Eriksen, and the form of Dele Alli.

This can be seen with Expected Assists p90 too - a metric looking to measure how many assists we can expected a player to make.

Apparently, we can expect Spurs to assist nothing nowadays - again, look at Harry Kane 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Going from the man on the end of the assists, to making it..

These numbers are reinforced by my chart from yesterday - this season, Spurs are producing a wet fart in the final third.

I think Spurs fans should conclude at this point...I'm almost lost for words by those attacking metrics.

I will say, the defensive numbers look okay, there's clearly a strong foundation there. But maybe, Spurs are the most boring team in the league 😬