With Spurs scoring just 9 goals in 9 games, plenty of fans completely disassociated with the side and #Nunoout trending every matchday....here's a data led look into the decline of Spurs this season...and beyond📊
DISCLAIMER:
All stats are from FBREF - I have watched Spurs this season a few times, but the numbers are just there for conversation - not completely for conclusions
"But...they're 6th? Nuno got manager of the month? 🤔🤔🤔"
Yes, and this thread will not end saying Nuno must go. However, Spurs have been turgid at points this season;
-In the Arsenal game, their defensive shape was shambolic
-They lack ANY creativity
There's a lot going on..
GOALKEEPING 🧤
Is Hugo Lloris at fault? Spurs have conceded 13 goals this season, more than Southampton!
However, Lloris has made Spurs look better than they actually are.
By PSXG - Goals Conceded, the 🇫🇷 national has been the 4th best in the league!
PSXG - Goals conceded:
This is Post Shot Expected Goals, take away goals conceded. PSXG is a measure of the quality of non-penalty shot at goal - I.E, a rocket to the top corner🚀
Spurs have been expected to concede 13 non penalty goals - Lloris has conceded 12 - doing well.
THE DEFENCE 🔓
Spurs are conceding 1.44 goals per game, and they finished last season with 1.18 GA per game.
Has the defence gotten worse?
Actually by the data, no! Here's a small overview of their defensive stats, compared to 20/21.
🔒 Oppositions shots are off-target more often
🔒 The distance opposition shots are taken from has barely changed
🔒 The NPXG per shot against has notched down by 0.01
NPXG per shot, is non-penalty expected goals per shot value.
What this measures is the quality of the average non-penalty shooting *chance*. The lower the number against, the better.
As you can see, the average shot against Spurs is of the second-lowest quality in the league!👍
Also lmao Man United are of course top what a shambolic team, on par with Norwich 😭😭😭
Spurs are one of the few teams in the league, yet to be registered in making a direct error leading to goal!
I think Spurs will be fine at the back as time goes on!
This is backed up by their pressing numbers too:
Spurs have actually made the 7th most pressures in the Premier League this season - that's not to say it's cohesive, but it shows the work rate is there 🔋
However this is where we can start to compare to 18/19 - I choose this because it was Poch's last, final season in charge.
I will continue this comparison from now, because things are gonna get ugly from here 😅
Even though Spurs are pressing a lot, it doesn't compare to 18/19:
18/19 total pressures: 153.2 p90
21/22 total pressures: 144.2 p90 📉
Spurs this season also have the 3rd least pressure-success rate in the league - so perhaps this work isn't the most productive🤷♂️
POSSESSION AND PROGRESSION ⬆️
Okay it's been a nice start, but let's turn the heat on now:
Despite holding the 9th most possession in the league, Spurs sit 13th for progressive actions in the Premier League.
Progressive actions: this refers to carries and passes, collected from FBREF - they have a glossary to see the exact definitions, but it is essentially how it sounds.
Passes and 'dribbles' that move the ball up the pitch. Spurs...not so good at dat.
Who isn't pulling their weight?
Well it's the defence.
Here's a damning comparison with the 18/19 season - Vertonghen & co were great at moving the ball up in buildup play - Eric Dier and Romero are non existent.
It's mad how Hojberg and Skipp even fall behind Harry Winks, and Moussa Sissoko 😅😅😅
Interestingly though, Spurs are still taking 22% of their touches in the final third.
That compares well to Leicester, who are around the same figure from a study I did a couple weeks back.
However, the final third is where the decline has been completed 😬
CHANCE CREATION🎯
So you may have seen @matthayesthfc tweet, that he had been *shook* by some data I showed him.
Since 2017/18, Spurs have taken LESS AND LESS touches inside the attacking penalty box per game🤯
In 17/18, they came 5⃣th for this metric
21/22? .....1⃣8⃣th
That's right:
In 17/18, they came 5⃣th for this metric
21/22: 1⃣8⃣th
No lies, you can see it here. Spurs are less penetrative than Burnley, and even Newcastle.......
But that's not all!
Remember NPXG - non penalty shot expected goals? I.e. The measure of quality of non-penalty shooting chances?
Well that's declined nearly every year too! 😂
Oh you want more numbers?
Well 17/18: Spurs were 3rd in the league for this metric!
21/22? ............17th 😅😅😅😅
That decline is f**king terrifying for Spurs.
They have gone from one of the best attacks maybe in Europe, to one of the worst in the Premier League. Shocking.
Want to be more depressed? Okay!
Here are the rankings for pure expected goals each season from 2017/18 - 20/21
The 🔴represents Spurs, with the🟢showing teams behind them.
Like the Amazon rainforest, things are getting a whole lot less greeny 😅
"Well, who is to blame for this? What's happened to the players?"
Let's see!
I took Shot-Creating-Actions numbers from Spurs
ST, CAM, LM, RM, LB, RB
for each season from 2017/18 to 21/22.
Reason being, it gives a decent outlook into how each position has declined/changed.
Look at Kane - going from a pure finisher, to a carrying the creativity 🧳
You can see how dramatically these numbers have fallen since that golden period.
It shows that Spurs are creating less shots, and how they miss players like Eriksen, and the form of Dele Alli.
This can be seen with Expected Assists p90 too - a metric looking to measure how many assists we can expected a player to make.
Apparently, we can expect Spurs to assist nothing nowadays - again, look at Harry Kane 🏴
Going from the man on the end of the assists, to making it..
These numbers are reinforced by my chart from yesterday - this season, Spurs are producing a wet fart in the final third.
Chelsea did not have a good weekend, and their start to the season has been mixed...
I watched all of their games so far: Here's what I think Maresca is trying to do, what's working (more than you think!), and what's not 👍
The plan 📋
We can split defending into what Chelsea do with, and without the ball. Starting with the in-possession stuff, which is more fun...
Last season, Chelsea could often look quite rigid against low blocks. I think Maresca's response to this has been to adopt more fluidity like PSG, basically allowing his forward players to have more freedom on the ball.
Here's what I think that looks like *roughly*
▪️RW (Estevao, Palmer) floating inside, while Gusto pushes on
▪️Fernandez pushing forward on either side of midfield
▪️LB pushing inside, allowing Gittens/Neto space on the touchline - but also has freedom to overlap too
▪️Caicedo anchoring things at the back
You can call this a 3-1-6, but I think that's an oversimplification and a poor way of looking at it.
Not least because Chelsea are a lot more fluid, but the point of this setup is that Chelsea's midfielders have the freedom to drop in and across the pitch. The defenders have also been given licence to run forward too.
Now, the plus of this is that Chelsea are obviously much more dangerous going forward. Their NPxG this season is high - even including the MUFC game, they rank 4th for that metric, higher than Arsenal Liverpool and Spurs 👍
The consequence though, is that when they lose the ball, there's a large burden on their defenders + Caicedo to quickly snuff out attacks.
Spurs have suffered their first defeat of the PL season. But, despite the good start, the Bournemouth game highlighted some issues...
Here's a look at Spurs' attack under Thomas Frank 🔎
RHS reliance ➡️
Iraola's side based their entire press around forcing Spurs to play football through the left. Iraola clearly knew how limited they were there, compared to the right, so all of their players made sure to shape Spurs down their weak side.h
Every single Spurs goal in the Premier League, so far, has originated from their right hand side.
Now, on the one hand, that shows how well Pedro Porro and Mohamed Kudus are getting on as individuals.
However, I think it also shows two other things:
▪️That Spurs LHS has struggled
▪️ And their RHS is thriving mainly just down to the individuals
Let's start with the left, as it should (hopefully) be resolved soon.
In Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson, Spurs haven't had a left footer on that side so far. Nearly every time Spence has received the ball, he's ended up passing backwards. That's because it's not as natural for him to turn, and play a pass down the line with his left.
Johnson, meanwhile, has attempted three dribbles so far without succeeding in any. He looks painfully ineffective off the left.
This should, in theory, be resolved by the return of Udogie, and the arrival of Simons though. Simons may well play as a 10, but he also likes to drift out to the left and take players on. It should balance Spurs out going forward 👍
Still, I do feel like Frank hasn't really done much to make the LHS work so far.
Sure, you can say it's just down to waiting for the right players to arrive. But it's not like Spurs have tried to surround Spence or Johnson with players to build combinations. They've left them isolated, which only exposes their awkwardness on that side.
And this was best shown against Bournemouth.
Iraola's side based their entire press around forcing Spurs to play football through the left. Iraola clearly knew how limited they were there, compared to the right, so all of their players made sure to shape Spurs down their weak side.
In this game, Porro got just 45 touches, down from 66 against City.
This is something @htomufc noted too.
But what of their right side?
Okay, there is stuff to like 😆
Frank's tactics are based around building up through a deep back four, with Porro given enough space to get his head up and play channel balls. Porro excels at playing this pass, so it's a good idea to create opportunities for him to play that pass.
It also helps that the man he's playing those passes to, Mohamed Kudus, has been exceptional so far. Not necessarily in terms of goal output, but in:
▪️receiving the ball as a wide target man
▪️ and dragging Spurs forward
For the former, Kudus is capable of backing into defenders and bringing down high balls with confidence. He's just a really strong footballer, and it's a crucial part of the Porro-channel-ball strategy working.
The second part is down to Kudus' quality 1v1.
Take this sequence against Bournemouth as an example. Kudus starts inside his own half, takes it past two players, dodges another incoming challenge and reaches their penalty box.
When I was planning my Sensible Transfers video for Crystal Palace, and I came very close to picking Haraldsson as their right-sided 10.
Here's why I liked him enough to consider, and what he can polish this season to reach the PL ⭐️
History + Profile 📖
Haraldsson joined Lille in 2023 from FC Copenhagen, where he made his breakthrough in Europe after moving from Iceland.
Being a big Ligue 1 nerd, I've watched Haraldsson pretty closely since joining. A young No 10 that Lille have bought? Must be good 🤷♂️
Yet, Haraldsson is yet to establish himself as a first-choice starter. His starts run as:
▪️2023-24: 15 starts, with 2 G/A
▪️2024-25: 21 starts, with 8 G/A
So, last season definitely saw an improvement RE minutes as well as goal contributions, but he's still not there yet.
Now, part of that is circumstantial. Haraldsson suffered a broken foot in international training in September 2024, and missed two months of the season. From what I can gather, he took a while to regain fitness after this.
However, there are other areas where Haraldsson has taken time to adapt. One of those I read from Bruno Genesio was language, with Haraldsson struggling at first in a new country.
Another, on the pitch, was blindingly obvious: physicality😕
We'll break this down properly later (surprise, in the negatives section), but when he first arrived Haraldsson could get physically dominated pretty easily. Over the last year though, I'd say he's bulked up a bit, and looks stronger.
So, hopefully that paints a picture of life at Lille so far. Let's talk profile then.
▪️ Haraldsson is right-footed, but capable of shooting on his left
▪️ He's small, around 5ft 10
▪️ He's quite quick off the mark
Basically, he's a nippy No 10 and you can fit him in across the pitch. In fact, under Paulo Fonseca in his first season, he played mainly off the left wing.
Under Bruno Genesio however, Haraldsson was fielded as an 10 and even started games on the right. And as an 10, he's sometimes allowed to drop deep to help in build-up, or pushed forwards to play like a Shadow Striker.
He's a very flexible player, and a huge part of the reason why you can play him across the front line, is intelligence.
Positives 🟢
Haraldsson does plenty of the things you want from your No 10 without the ball.
There's his scanning, which I think is some of the best I've seen in scouting players this summer. Not only does he consistently check his shoulders, so he's aware of his surroundings, but his checks are done extremely quickly. He can scan both shoulders within the space of a second.
Then, there are also two sides to his movement.
The first is that he's pretty good at holding his position between the lines. He won't directly drop in to receive the ball, but just try and get into a nice pocket of space to eventually receive it.
What I think is more fun though, is how he attacks the box ⬆️
I mentioned Genesio plays Haraldsson as a Shadow Striker, and I can see why. Haraldsson is great at spotting gaps in defensive lines and exploiting them, he's incredibly dangerous as someone crashing the box.
That counts for both
🏃♂️ Running beyond the striker, and going through on goal
🧠 Or getting into a good position to receive a cross/cutback
There's end product to match this movement too, with five goals in the league last season.
I do think his shooting is a little mixed, as he is capable of some pretty poorly executed shots. However, Haraldsson's main technique is shooting hard across goal into the far corner. He's done this well on both left and right foot.
The power he can get on shots is pretty impressive, and it makes me think that if he can refine his shooting, he could become a pretty productive player from both short and long range.
In truth, I think this mixed-positivity can be applied to all of his technical qualities.
His passing, for example, hasn't got him much in the way of assists or expected assists. But I find that surprising, because Haraldsson is capable of threading passes between defenders into the path of team mates.
I want to emphasise that last point; I love how consistently Haraldsson aims his passes beyond the receiver, allowing them to continue their momentum.
And like I said, this wouldn't be possible without pretty strong passing vision. He's willing to play passes directly into the box, and will search for opportunities to do so.
Also, Haraldsson is a good passer over long distances, and a decent crosser. He takes set pieces for Lille, as he can play this nice wrapped-right-footed cross that has enough curl to make it difficult to defend.
----
It would be impossible to talk about Haraldsson's positives and not mention his agility.
The 22-year-old can stop/change direction incredibly easily. He boasts excellent balance, and tight close control.
As a result, you should just never dive into a tackle on Haraldsson, because he'll skip past at ease. He's too skillfull, too quick, and good enough to read body language that it's always better to hold your ground.
There's more reasons why it's better to hold your ground defending against Haraldsson, which we can get into now...
"Why hasn't anyone signed Xavi Simons! He's amazing!"
Here's a thread on why I think Xavi Simons hasn't been signed yet. In short:
🔴His weaknesses make him an awkward positional fit
👀But I still really love him!
Profile 📖
No history?
These threads are meant to be digestible, and they've recently been hitting 15,000 characters (sorry). So, in this section, we're not going to delve too much about Simons' background, and just about how he's been used at RB Leipzig.
---
Now, the 22-year-old did get an injury last season, so the following words reflect his position over the last two seasons.
RB Leipzig, under Marco Rose (in charge for the majority of Simons' time), have switched between a 4-4-2 and a 3-4-3 system.
Either way, Leipzig want to attack quickly, mainly through short passes, so Simons often leads fast breaks, driving with the ball through the middle. A context that can be replicated at many teams.
But, let's talk about more settled possession 🧐
The former system, the 4-4-2, is definitely the one Simons has played the most football in. He has started as a LM, but really, a LAM. He has a free role to drift across the pitch, both horizontally and vertically.
For example, during early build-up, you might see Simons:
▪️Receive out wide around the halfway line, with a full-back right behind him
▪️ Drift behind the opposition midfield, looking to eventually receive the ball between the lines
▪️ Drop deep, almost like a double pivot, playing a one-two with his centre-back and looking to race into the space he just created behind him
▪️ Or, drifting all the way over to the right! (This is rarer though)
In general, I think you can describe Simons as a ball-to-feet player. He wants to be driving towards defenders, making the final pass or taking a shot from outside of the box. A true number 10, in a way! 🔟
That said, he can do this in wide areas. He's not uncomfortable on the touchline. Wouldn't describe him as a winger though, for reasons we'll get into...
The final point on his profile I'll mention, is that at Leipzig, he's obviously expected to work hard off the ball. At around 5ft7, he isn't the strongest player, so he tends to focus on pressing full-backs.
Basically: behaves like a midfielder in possession, but defends like a winger.
That should be enough preparation to dive into the deep end of the positives!
Positives 🟢
I had to give myself a couple of hours break before writing this, after finishing my Simons watch. I love watching him so, so much - that I knew this would be wayyyy too rose-tinted if I dived in straight away 😂
And, you know what, that was worth it.
Because even Simons' biggest strengths do come with a consistent caveat...
Still, let's start in the pure, positive areas. Agility, balance, body positioning being one. That's a lot of buzzwords, but basically, Simons is just incredibly hard to read when he has the ball.
He can change his body position as fast as anyone I think I've seen, going from "I'm going to cut inside here", to "no I'm running down the line" in an insanely quick time. I've not seen a player in ages do a Cruyff turn as sharply as Simons 🏃♂️e
This means he can weave through challenges incredibly easily, like he's working at a different speed to defenders.
It also helps he has this excellent burst of acceleration, and that's not just from a standing start. He'll often be carrying the ball towards goal, then switch into a faster gear to drive through a gap.
This counts for his final action too, as he'll disguise his direction of pass through body position. Shaping to switch it, but reversing it and playing it in behind instead.
Now, another pure positive: movement/receiving ✍️
Simons went to La Masia, and it really shows. He's not just a sharp, skilful player, but a really intelligent one.
A lot of it comes down to scanning. Simons is consistently aware of his passing options, his marker's position, and how much space he has.
Now, throw in the fact he can play clever flicks and backheels, and you have a very dangerous player to allow to receive the ball. He can:
▪️ Draw his marker in and flick it off to a team mate
▪️ Quickly turn and play a forward pass
▪️ Or, and my favourite: drop into to receive, play it back to the passer, spin in behind into the space and receive once more. Pass and move, pass and move.
Whatever the case, everything Simons does is quick. He's a dream in midfield to build combinations, occupy space, pull markers around, etc.
-----
Okay, we're now moving onto flawed positives. And, 'flawed', is a touch mean.
Basically, Simons has a heavy bias towards using his right foot.
I don't think it's because he's 'bad' on his left foot, he just prefers to use his right for passing, dribbling, and shooting.
I'm not sure I'd describe him as 'one-footed', because he's shown the ability to take a ball in his stride on his weaker foot. But, like I said, he clearly just trusts himself under pressure more on his right foot.
However, this does have knock-on effects for two of his biggest strengths: passing, and dribbling 😅
Let's start on the former, because as I suggested before, Simons is a very intelligent player. His vision is superb, not just for short-range passes but also balls in behind.
And, may I say too, his passing is incredibly satisfying to watch. Not only does he consistently aim it in front of players, making sure they're able to run onto the ball and continue their momentum...But, his weight is nearly *always* superb, never overhitting it or underhitting it ⚽️
There's a range of technique used too. Simons can hit these heavy drives across the pitch, or these cheeky trivelas round the corner of the defender.
However, I think those trivelas too often act as a substitute for a left-footed pass. There have been occasions where Simons is:
1⃣ On the LW
2⃣ Sesko is making a curved run in behind
3⃣ Simons uses the outside of his foot to play the pass
4⃣ The ball falls a little short, not hit with the power a left-footer could have got on the inside of their foot
This is something that holds Simons back compared to more two-footed midfielders. It's minor in the grand scheme of things, because Simons puts up world class expected assists numbers.
But in central areas, you ideally want your midfielder to access all angles. Simons, can't, a lot of the time.
Let's talk about his dribbling, which I think suffers a tad more than his passing. (Still, it's overall a positive 🟢)
Simons is capable of using his left foot for a first touch, but after that, it's alllll right foot for moving the ball forward.
Now, again, Simons can be an excellent dribbler. That agility helps a lot, but more than anything, Simons is just incredibly skilful. So many tricks in his arsenal, and quick reactions. I trust him to dribble through crowds in the middle
However, out wide, he almost never dribbles on the outside. Even though he's good at hiding his intention, ultimately, Simons nearly always wants to cut inside onto his right foot.
It means, in wide areas, he can be a tad predictable. So if you're a team looking for a winger, then you might be put off by Simons' one-footedness.
Now, that said, I do adore him in central areas. His dribble success rate has fallen off a lot this season, and I do think he could protect the ball better. He often doesn't keep himself between ball and defender.
However, I do think much of the decline is related to A). Leipzig being worse last season, leaving Simons with more work to do. B). Simons trying to dribble through central areas more.
This will lead to him losing the ball, but he can make it work. And, when he does, he is capable of driving straight through the heart of a team 😍
Okay, so, let's have a quick recap.
▪️ In terms of dribbling, Simons probably suits central areas more.
▪️ In terms of passing, creative actions, his angles can be a little limited in the middle, and would probably suit a wider position.
Clearly, there's a bit of a clash here. So, let's see if we can determine where Simons would work best by discussing his weaknesses.
Sooner or later, there's bound to be a bid lodged for Brighton's latest No 6 off their conveyor belt of talent. But, how well do you actually know Baleba?
Here's some detail on what's great about him, and how ready he is for the elite level ✍️
History + Profile 📖
Baleba is still a relative newcomer to senior football. He was snatched from Lille before even making 7 Ligue 1 starts two years ago!
He doubled that in his first season at Brighton under Roberto De Zerbi, but it was only last season where the 21-year-old became a full starter.
It's worth saying, that Brighton have changed approach both with and without the ball a lot this season under Fabian Hurzeler. Baleba has been part of a double pivot, played as a lone No 6, and even filled in as a CB...
Still, there has been some clear changes compared to RDZ. For example:
▪️ Brighton made around 50 touches less p90 in their own defensive third last season, showing a weaker emphasis on building out from the back.
▪️On top of that, they attempted more long passes.
This makes sense, as Hurzeler has wanted to access 4v4 scenarios more directly than RDZ, often bypassing midfield to do so.
These are pretty significant stylistic changes, and as a result, Baleba's output across the two seasons has changed.
▪️ He's gone from 66 touches p90 to 57, receiving the ball 10x less p90
▪️ A larger proportion of those touches are coming in the final third, and he's getting on the ball less often in the def third
▪️ Despite this, his progressive passes have increased
▪️ As have his progressive carries
On those latter two points, it's worth talking about how Baleba receives the ball ahead of a full nuanced breakdown.
You might think that it's No 6's job to drop in front of the defenders, receive the ball, and move it forward. Be that through turning their marker, or evading them to get into a good position to receive the ball from a CB.
Conversely, we sometimes consider midfielders who do not do that as 'bad' in football discourse. I still remember Fred/McTominay getting slammed for their lack of movement behind opposition pressers.
Now, I may just be speaking for myself here, but that's certainly the way I tended to view things. Which meant, until Jon Mackenzie banged my head a bit, I was underwhelmed by Baleba - because he is not dropping in a way you'd expect.
Think of it like this:
We think of No 6s being the 'second' man. CB passes to DM -> DM moves the ball forward to the third man.
Well, Baleba wants to be the third man.
So, when there's a marker infront of him, he'll hold position. The idea being...
1⃣ CB has the ball
2⃣ Guy in front of Baleba presses CB
3⃣ CB moves it out to LB
4⃣ LB passes inside to Baleba
5⃣ Baleba is now in a ton of space, free of his marker, and he can carry/pass forward
This is very nerdy stuff, especially for the history + profile section, but I wanted to get this context in early. It's hugely important to keep in mind, as we dive into the following sections.
Positives 🟢
Assuming you read the above (I hope you didn't skip ahead!), let's start the positive section with something a little less dense.
Baleba, is a lovely dribbler. He's quick off the mark, he's agile, he has pretty good physicality, and lovely footwork.
So, if you're a defender thinking you've trapped Baleba in a tight space, think again! He holds a 58% dribble success rate, which is strong ✅
*One note, Baleba does rely a lot on his left foot to carry, rather than his right. He can use his right foot, so I definitely wouldn't describe him as one-footed, but I do think he's a bit guilty of closing off his dribbling/passing angles.
Still, in terms of evading challenges, I think Baleba is really solid. Some may describe it as his best skill, as it helps him remain largely press-resistant.
Also, in terms of carrying, this is a useful trait given the space Baleba gets himself into as we detailed above, further forward into enemy lines.
Once he receives that pass, he can charge forward into space and drive Brighton up the pitch.
Still, I wouldn't actually describe this as the best part of his game; that's easily his defensive work.
I've actually found this pretty difficult to word, because Baleba is quite simply, just really really good at anticipating danger + timing his challenges. He uses his body really well to block challenges, places his feet well to win the ball...
It's all just very clean. We're years ahead of the time we used to reductively describe any players who completed lots of tackles and interceptions as simply 'good', but - I don't find it surprising Baleba ranks on FBref:
🟢 84th percentile for tackles vs dribblers
🟢 91st for interceptions
🟢 70th for tackles won
Bare in mind, that's on a team that held over 52% possession last season...
Also, like I said, he's very quick and pretty strong.
I mentioned before that he's a quick accelerator, but Baleba can maintain high speed over large distances.
I think all of this puts him into that very small category of midfielders who could play as a lone defensive No 6 👍
Now, let's talk about an area where Baleba does seem to rank poorly: passing.
I mentioned his progressive passes p90 had increased since last season, but Baleba still ranks as one of the least progressive midfielders in the Premier League.
So, what's going on?
Well, I think it simply comes down to volume.
As we mentioned, Baleba's job for Brighton isn't actually to progress the ball forward; quite often, it's to be the person receiving the ball in advanced positions.
That's why his touches in the final third have increased, his midfield touches stayed stable, and his def third touches declined.
Or in other words: in the first phase, it's Van Hecke's job to play progressive passes to Baleba or someone beyond him. Baleba focuses on getting into pockets of space to receive them.
However, when Baleba DOES get on the ball, facing a block...I actually think he's a pretty strong passer ✅
🟢His vision is pretty impressive, especially over long range. He's pretty reliable at spotting wingers making out-to-in runs
🟢 His execution is generally nice, with good clipped balls over the top, and powerfully hit passes through the middle. The latter really showed under RDZ
🟢 He tries to make first-time passes to keep up the tempo, especially after winning the ball back.
I agree with those that say he could do this more. I think he can be a little hesitant on the ball. Still, I rate him highly.
Here's a screenshot from @mygameplanai that shows his successful progressive passes that end in the centre third (🔵= ends in shot, 🟢 = ends in goal)
The thing I like about this is the range, as there's a mix of short to medium range balls coming from the sides, or straight down the middle.
I think there's quite a negative perception of Garnacho online, not just for off-field stuff, but for his actual ability.
However, when watching him across his time at United, I actually really liked what I saw...mostly 👀
History + Profile 📖
I'm not sure you need a full dive into Garnacho's history, as we've seen it in the Premier League in front of our eyes.
▪️He broke in to Manchester United's first team under Erik ten Hag
▪️ He played a bit-part role in the Dutchman's first season, making 19 league apps (mostly as a sub)
▪️That went up to 36 in 2023-24, including 30 starts, as Garnacho became an important player
▪️ He put up fewer starts, 23, in 2024-25
Perhaps this will go down badly, but I'd like to take a different look through this time, from the perspective of: just how hard has it been to perform in this Man Utd team? 🤔
So, what you need to know about him profile wise for now, is:
🔹 Garnacho prefers playing on the LW, cutting in on his right, but is still pretty good on his left
🔹 He's fast, agile, thrives in transition
🔹 Good at linking up for one-twos
🔹He's not particularly strong, and can get bulldozed with his back to goal
🔹Finally, he thrives with an overlapping FB, because he tends to drive inside (not cut), leaving space for the overlap. He tends to weight the passes to them pretty well.
I know he hasn't played these passes as much recently, but this is DEFINITELY a positive thing seen in earlier footage, I'll die on that hill.
Anyway, let's take another look then, at the past two seasons in Manchester 🔴
2023-24:
This is Man Utd's worst season in the Premier League era, so already, not the best place to bring in talent.
Garnacho does get platformed in a decent way, as he's able to cut in on the LW, his preferred position.
However, Man Utd have a problem: their RW position. Antony isn't playing well, Amad doesn't get brought in until near the end of the season, which means that Garnacho ends up getting shifted to the right.
This isn't the end of the world, and to his testement, Garnacho does perform pretty well on this side. However, it's still unnatural for him, he wants to cut in on his right but is having to do so on his left instead.
That's not the only issue though, because when Garnacho does get minutes back on the left, he's not supported particularly well from his FB.
This is because, in Tyrell Malacia and Luke Shaw, Man Utd basically didn't have a left-back from August 2023 until January 2025, when they signed Patrick Dorgu.
So, remember me saying Garnacho's showed positive signs of linking up with an overlapping FB?
Well, this was quite often the result in this time:
▪️ Garnacho receives the ball out wide, drives through space into the middle
▪️He lures the opposition RB inside towards him, and there's a gap left
▪️ Man Utd's LB makes a run, inbetween the boundaries of the edge of the box and the goal
▪️Garnacho plays a pass between the RB and RCB, into the path of this LB
▪️ It's a well-weighted pass, it's a great opportunity for them to play a cross or cut the ball back
▪️ Unfortunately, this isn't Luke Shaw, it's Diogo Dalot playing on the wrong side. He tries to cross on his left foot, it's bad, and it goes out for a goal kick.
That wasn't a theoretical situation, this was something I noted down on more than one occasion in 2023-24 and the beginning of 2024-25.
Speaking of which...
2024-25:
This is Man Utd's worst season in the Premier League era, so already, not the best place to platform talent.
Of course, the defining feature of last campaign was the managerial change from Erik ten Hag to Ruben Amorim.
Now, Amorim's issues have been VERY well documented. We've also already covered the LB problem - Dalot still goes on to play around 1.7k minutes at LB/LWB in 2024-25.
However, perhaps something you haven't thought about is how Garnacho got shifted around, again.
Let's focus back on the early part of my profile. He's someone who likes to connect with teammates in one-twos, then run into space.
That works as a winger, because you often have a LCM and a ST to connect with, as well as a LB overlapping.
As a No 10 in a 3-4-3 however, you effectively shift into one of the more advanced positions on the pitch. This means, for Garnacho:
▪️ He's now receiving with his back to goal
▪️ He's duelling with CBs rather than RBs
▪️ He's often got limited forward passing options
▪️There's often less space for him to exploit
It may not *seem* like a huge change, especially as he likes to drift inside anyway. But, the starting position means a lot here. It's not surprising that as the season went on, Amorim started allowing Garnacho to take up wider positions in this role, with the LWB often coming inside.
Still, EVEN if you think this is rubbish and he shouldn't be defended in this way due to the context of the team...He's contributed to 48 goals and assists in 148 appearances for Man Utd.
How much higher might that tally have been if he:
A). Consistently played on the left
B). Consistently had a top LB overlapping
C). Consistently played in the same system
Also, a reminder: he's still 20 years old. There are definitely negatives to discuss, but let's continue the positivity...
Positives 🟢
Going to make camp on a hill that I'm willing to die on here: I think Garnacho isn't just passable defensively, I think he's actually very, very underrated.
He seems to have a reputation of being a poor worker, someone with a bad attitude, something that's no doubt bled in from discussions about his off-pitch behaviour.
However, when it comes to defending from the front, I'm not having it. Garnacho ranked as one of the best wingers in the PL for possession gains in the final third last season through data with @mygameplanai , in that Man Utd side. Not aimless pressures - possession gains.
Some more detailed notes:
🟢Garnacho looks to adapt the shape of his run to close options off
🟢There's genuinely good intensity due to the speed he accelerates
🟢 He's generally aware enough to change position for an interception
It's not just the effort going forwards, it's tracking back too. I noted him looking around during transitions, seeing who he could pick up.
The only thing I had negative here was a bit of overaggressiveness. Which is, fine, he's 20.
Look, I'm sure this can be quoted with clips or comps of bad moments. I imagine particularly so in recent months. But, as someone who - in prep for this - watched a lot of matches before the Amorim era, I feel pretty positive on this.
Anyway, as I mentioned, I think Garnacho's defensive work often shines due to his pace.
He's got a really good burst of speed, and can maintain top speed over really long distances. Garnacho is capable of running 50m and still outpacing defenders 🏃♂️
That applies to changing direction too, as I think Garnacho is pretty agile. He can spin/twist quickly, and is very fluid on the ball.
This not only helps him defensively, but it pairs excellently with Garnacho's attacking movement. And oh boy, is this aspect of his game underrated.
Underrated by me in fact. I failed to include it in my video about him recently, because I just didn't have space. Let's right that wrong.
Garnacho, quite simply, is very eager to attack space in behind. Whether thats:
🟢 Running behind a FB out to in
🟢 Running between CB and FB through the middle
🟢 Attacking the back post as a far-side threat
It's all there. And it's not just the intelligence to recognise when these opportunities come up, after all that's not incredibly hard. It's that he knows how to make these runs impactful.
For example: Garnacho will look to aim for the blindside of the defender, and he'll change direction throughout. He maintains distance well, not letting the defender keep contact.
My friend @amonizfootball mentioned to me in DMs when I was prepping for the video, that it's this part of Garnacho's game that explains why his xG is so high. I completely agree. Put Garnacho in a functioning attacking side and I think the goals go right up 📈
It's not just scoring goals though that I think would improve in another side, it's assisting them.
I would NOT go as far as to say, Garnacho is 'two-footed'. Just because, for me, that should be reserved for the likes of Cherki (extreme example but, ya get me).
However, I do think Garnacho is very capable on his weak foot, particularly for cut backs. In other words, he's capable of hitting the byline, and pulling balls back into dangerous areas with good weight + no bounce, and decent accuracy.
If anything, his right-footed inswinging crosses need more work. He seems to vary a lot more in success on them, struggling to beat the first man.
That's not the case on his shooting though. From range, I think Garnacho could be a threat for years to come.
Quite simply, I think this comes down to power. Garnacho can rifle shots at very high speeds.
The accuracy, does range. But, as a 20-year-old, to have two outside of the box goals in the league last season is promising stuff.
I think that number will tick up if he can consistently hit the target more often. He tends to focus on power over accuracy, or at least, struggles to place his shots. Maybe that doesn't improve enough of course, but if it does, that's a dangerous goal threat right there.
It's worth saying too, that he shows good power on his left foot from range. Not as impressive as his right, but it's another rare trait that will attract clubs. It means, when running through, he's dangerous at hitting the far corner, across goal, with his left foot 👍
Anyway, that was one of the longest positive sections for a while. The negatives are overdue.