How liveable will earth be in 2070?
Up to a third of the projected global population of 9bn could be exposed to temperatures on a par with the hottest parts of the Sahara, according to research by scientists from China, US and Europe on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
Under the most extreme scenario, the southern US states would become much hotter, particularly those that border the Gulf of Mexico.
Central America would bear the brunt of the increase, with up to 20m people living in mean annual temperatures of 29C on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
Big regions of Canada and Alaska would experience warmer conditions by 2070.
These areas are now largely uninhabited and projected to remain that way without factoring in migration on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
Large areas of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil, along with surrounding countries Peru, Colombia and Venezuela, would be virtually unliveable.
About 59m people would be affected under the most extreme scenario on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
Europe is the only continent to avoid mean annual temperatures exceeding 29C. But large areas of Scandinavia, eastern Russia and countries bordering the Mediterranean could still expect to see temperatures increase by up to 5C under the worst-case scenario on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
Africa’s population is predicted to experience a population explosion in all the shared socio-economic pathway scenarios, doubling to almost 2.4bn people.
About 80% of Nigeria’s predicted population of about 477m would suffer from extreme temperatures on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
Asia’s population is predicted to swell to more than 5bn, and a large number of countries would face mean annual temperatures in excess of 29C.
Worst affected would be India, with more than half its expected population of 1.6bn facing extreme heat on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
Almost all of the United Arab Emirates and Cambodia would become nearly unliveable, including the heavily populated areas of south Vietnam and eastern Pakistan on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
Oceania’s extreme heat would be confined to the largely unpopulated areas of Papua New Guinea and northern Australia, with the majority of Australia’s population remaining predominantly situated along the south and eastern coastline on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
But rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could halve the number of people exposed to such hot conditions.
As #COP26 rolls on, you can dive into the research on each continent here: on.ft.com/3BEyaiC
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