Thread by @therealarod1984

11/1 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

* Positives, Cases & Hospitalization all continue strong declines for now
* Discussion on testing, positive tests, & Positivity Rate
* Winter wave time yet or what?

1/n
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11/1 Indicators - Part 1

* Total positivity rate as of 10/22 at 5.41%, but the rate of decline is flattening some
* Testing peak 9/13 @ 1.12M tests a week. Testing as of 10/22 is @ 580K per week, a decline of nearly 50%
* Positive Test 7DMA below 4500 per day

2/n
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11/1 Indicators - Part 2

When looking at Testing, Pos Rate & Cases:

* TX reports testing by date of specimen collection, Counties report cases in batch
* Takes good 9-10 days for a day's testing to arrive to state
* Pos rate needs to be looked at in relation to qty of testing

11/1 - Indicators Part 3 & Cases

* Other indicators are positive tests & cases
* If testing is collapsing, % of sick people getting tested goes up, creating a floor for pos% rate
* However, both pos tests & cases continue to decline
* Cases 7DMA rate of decline 10% WoW

4/n
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11/1 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Current bed census is 3380, down 76% from the high on 8/25
* % of beds tagged as Covid down to 5.43%
* At this point in the "wave" last year, we saw the beginnings of the winter wave
* However, 7DMA WoW rate of decline is still 18%

5/n
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11/1 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* Hospital admits continue to decline at 19% WoW
* ICU also continues to decline while at this point in "wave" last year, the Winter wave had started
* So strong declines at point where flattening/new wave should occur. Will be interesting...

6/n

11/1 Fatalities

* Officially 70,000 fatalities on the nose. See 10/29 update for commentary

7/n
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11/1 Conclusion

* Leading indicators still in decline
* which includes positivity rate, although the rate of decline there is slowing some
* Hospitalization numbers still in strong decline.
* A winter wave should be starting about now, but so far not yet. Will watch

8/n