The change from 2020 to 2021 in Virginia was driven by non-college white women. Not by non-college non-whites (Hispanics were 66-33 for T-Mac, better than 61-36 in 2020). Lesser drop-off among non-college white men and college white men.
Here is education and race. Again, non-college non-whites were more pro-Terry than pro-Biden!
Also, a majority of 2021 Virginia voters support covid vaccine mandates. So if you are reading into this election a need for Dems to drop vax mandates, don't.
Having a child at home didn't really matter either. Among those with kids at home, margin moved 12 points. Among those without kids at home, margin moved 16 points.
Why exactly did so many non-college white women shift from Biden to Youngkin? Hard to say. Doesn't necessarily correlate with having kids in school. And probably not racially driven (CRT) as these were people who voted for Biden. My guess? Concern over inflation.
This was true back in 1980 too. (Reagan's famous "govt is not the solution" line was preceded by talking about inflation). Inflation is the "hidden tax" borne especially by working class people who notice price changes at grocery stores, gas stations, Amazon, etc.
This is the source of the poll: washingtonpost.com/elections/inte…
One more chart: Age. Biggest shift was among 30-44s.
As always, treat exit polls with caution - even revised exits. The smaller population sub-sets have huge margins of error.
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