1/5 Thatcher/Johnson downfall - first you need a 'heavyweight' Tory to turn against you. In this case the candidate is Theresa May...
2/5 Secondly, you need a major policy divide. In Thatcher's case it was the Poll Tax. Riots followed. In Johnson's case it's 'Levelling Up'. Soon people will see that it is only Tory constituency Levelling Up, not the rest of The North.
3/5 Plotting & insurrection are how Tory PMs are removed. A caucus gathers, WhatsApp group shapes up, hardliners sense pay back time. Knives out, but where are they? Thatcher was famously undermined by Geoffrey's Howe's pro-European speech. Johnson's downfall is of his own making
4/5 Kairos (as Jonathan Maitland says) is the idea of timing for a speech to cause downfall or change, political timing & seizing the moment. Cummings may not be a busted flush. Are there more bodies? Or is it Emperor's new clothes for Johnson? Theresa May will speak out.
5/5 Plastic Churchill's ability to duck & evade is legendary. Thatcher was taken down for political reasons, Johnson will self-destruct & resign. The perfect moment for this will be June 2022 as the full impact of #Brexit can no longer be denied. Arise Penny Mordaunt PM.
Addendum: #Superforecasting - the art of bullshit for money.
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