Thread by @chrischirp

LONG THREAD on UK Covid situation...

cases, hospitals, deaths, long covid, variants, global - all dealing with consistent themes.

TLDR: "living with" with high cases is bad idea. Especially while boosters and teen vax is slow and new viral treatments are on the horizon! 1/25

There was a reduction in both LFD and PCR tests over half term, so take drop in reported cases with a grain of salt over half term.

Cases were flat or dropping in each nation, but apart from NI, PCR positivity was flat or increasing. 2/25

Two weeks ago I said we should see rates in kids fall over half term & that teen vax might put a brake on it too.

So cases started dropping the week *before* half term and accelerated over half term. 3/25

While some of it will be reduced testing, we also see drops in school kids in ONS Infection survey. Cases in school aged kids have peaked (for now), but aren't (yet) dropping in adults - so won't reduce pressure on NHS yet.

Impact of back to school remains to be seen. 4/25

REACT-1 Study from Imperial reported this week comparing results from 67K people in late Oct to 100K people tested in Sept in England. People randomly sampled so not biased by who is seeking testing.

So what did they find? 5/25

Cases increased in all regions but particularly in the SW where they almost quadrupled! Doubtless accelerated by the Immensa false negative lab scandal. 6/25

Cases also increased in all age groups - and were highested by far in school age children (note slightly diff ranges to ONS).

But even in over 75s cases more than doubled. REACT authors said cases driven by school kids and moving through to vulnerable populations. 7/25

Cases are higher & rose faster, in households with children.

And for 1st time in pandemic, cases are highest in least deprived areas and cases more evenly spread. Probably because this wave driven by schools, there is little kids or parents can do to shield from exposure. 8/25

The latest ONS survey on self reported long covid came out yesterday.

I used the last 5 months of reports to look at changes in reported symptoms for >4 weeks from infections pre May to infections pre September. 9/25

Rates are generally highest in older adults, but large increases in young adults recently, reflecting super high cases in this age group over summer.

The rises in 12-16yrs prob from July high school cases. *This term* spike not yet reflected and long covid will rise :-( 10/25

So now to hospitalisations. People in hospital going up in all nations except NI, where they are high and flat.

Unfortunately, number of people needing mechanical ventilation (intensive care) also going up - this does matter.

Admissions pretty high in England. 11/25

If we look at the proportion of critical care (adult) patients who are Covid patients we can see how much it has increased since May 2021 to now.

In some regions almost a third of critically ill patients are Covid patients. @seahorse4000 12/25

This - on top everything else and 18 months of pandemic - is causing massive issues for the NHS.

We should all be shouting about this to our MPs.

This thread in particular is worth reading.
13/25

Deaths, while much lower than Jan peak, are going up and UK has recorded over 1000 deaths a week for past two weeks. 14/25

Latest UKHSA vax surveillance report showed almost 2,500 fully vaccinated people over 70 dying in four weeks in October.

This is NOT because vaccines don't work. It's because living with high case rates and vax waning means too many vulnerable older people pay the price. 15/25

For vaccination, home nations mostly in similar places except NI lagging - particularly on boosters & unvaccinated.

England still far behind Scotland and Wales on vaccinating teens. Lower than I wanted by 2nd half of term. :-(
16/25

If we look at first dose coverage by deprivation for *12-17* year olds there is a massive gap in uptake between children in most deprived areas vs least deprived. A larger gap than for adult uptake.

We need to understand and address this urgently! 17/25

Although two thirds of over 75s are boosted, almost all of them are elgibile. In general, only about 55% of those who got their 2nd dose 6+ mnths ago have been boosted. We need to match the 500K a day we were doing in winter and spring! 18/25

Delta grandchild AY.4.2 (child of AY.4) is continuing its slow spread in England (and Scot & Wales). Likely dominant by mid Jan assuming no other variant emerges.

BUT risk of new variant remains high as SAGE have repeatedly emphasised! Particulary with high school cases! 19/25

In Europe, Eastern Europe having an awful surge with high cases and much higher deaths than the UK.

They also have much lower vax rates, fuelling their high death rates. 20/25

Many countries in W Europe are now seeing surges. Fewer deaths than UK for now & similar vax rates.
They have tried to move from Vax Plus to just vax and it's hard even with high vax rates. Some are reintroducing measures like Belgium and NL. 21/25

Others - like Spain, Italy, France and Portugal, are still managing to keep a lid on it. They have higher vax rates than us, significant levels of prev infection (like us) but also have other measures 22/25

Meanwhile, the US has started vaccinating 5-11 year olds! The CDC emphasised that vaccines can prevent bad outcomes for kids and that Covid still worse for kids than other disease they vax against. 23/25

But vaccine inequalities persist across the world.

G7 promises from June are not being met. We can make more, donate more, support other countries to make more & distribute more. We must do this. 24/25

So to summarise, whether cases go up, stay high or go down gradually, we can get things under control quicker with vaccine plus. We should do this - esp as boosters and teen vax slower than needed AND effective antivirals round the corner. 25/25

PS massive thanks to Bob Hawkins who is so invaluable in pulling together many of the data sources and charts each week!!

to be clear - their drop accelerated!