1/ Releasing a redacted Lux quarterly letter to LPs.
Some strong views of
-a catalog of an excess of excesses
-what catalysts cause the current market frenzy to end
(preview: LP indigestion)
-what we are advising our Lux family companies
-much more…
2/-The importance of HEIGHTENED HUMILITY in times like these (where source of ‘success’ can be easily mistaken)
-Telepresence helps us connect with far-flung founders but true presence (in person) helps our team connect like never before
-Where a CONSENSUS of CONCERNS is CENTERED
3/ Time travel with us a year hence—
reflecting back on the year that was.
Which of the 2 paragraphs below do you expect to read in Q3 2022?
4/-Is now time for CAUTION or throwing CAUTION to the wind?
-Valuations have risen
diligence fallen &
EXCESS is in EXCESS
-Preparing for the turn—when it comes
is wiser than predicting—when it may
5/ An excess of excesses—or what things wicked may this way come…
As Fed + central banks dole out dramatic distortion of discount rates, duration and the “true” cost of capital into markets…
A scene from ‘Deadwood’ comes to mind…
6/
-In just the last 12 weeks, startups raised more than the entire 99-00 .com boom/bust
-Character is built thru hardship + steep slopes
Yet today’s hero’s journey has given way to flattened slopes
-Thus far all news has been good news—which to realists—portends bad news.
7/ Failures comes from a failure to imagine failure
Good times let guards down
making co’s vulnerable to the silent artillery of time
LP’s whiteboard of GPs coming to market
looks like A Beautiful Mind
indigenstion of LPs + pace of new commitments
cant match pace of new raises
8/…before continuing…
ht @TheRealCarlChi1 for the image of investor swim lanes then + now
9/ The “Hemingway Hinge”…
A few funds with AUM $50-100B taking page from Carlyle,Apollo, KKR + now TPG will…
turn once cultivated intimate partnerships
into calculated intentions to go public becoming institutional corporations, fully diversified supermarkets
10/
-We have benefited from unusual demand—just as we caution against its unlikely persistence in its current form.
-we said 90% of SPACs would be CRAPs
-Some deals will prove…less kosher than a kilebasa sausage smothered in swiss cheese
-The Appointment in Samarra…
11/ Indefinitely Modified Paths—the wisdom of William James & Jurassic Park.
“Life finds a way”… and so do incredible founders
in every cutting-edge industry we find + fund…
12/
Space race is real—over 12 nations have astral aspirations
took humanity til 1961 to launch 1st 👨🚀 in space
last mo there were 14 in space @ same time
Do wise things when others are doing provably foolish things
And do what may appear to be foolish that’ll prove to be wise
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.