1/ My take on Trump in exchange with one of my smartest market friends.

Bizarrely I’m more sanguine.

Either it’s the greatest policy mistake and blunder of a rollout ever. OR it ends up with some grand bargain for those that want to ensure certainty and stability by doing long term deals or otherwise face massive undulating volatility in his flip-flopping, fickle whims.

I think overall across all domains (tech cos, universities, law firms, countries) they got very confident and then cocky ... I think it started with the Silicon Valley and Elon flip over… And then Zuck shifting his board and taking a knee… And he saw powerful person after powerful person pledging fealty out of fear. I think that further emboldened them the "we’re fucking here We are in total control. We have all the leverage. You do what we say or you're fucked" from big tech to Zelensky to law firms to Columbia + Harvard and then the rest of the world

And Whether it’s the market fighting back or law firms, fighting back or universities fighting back… He’s gotta double down and not show weakness or concede. He was wrong… It’s very tough game theory.

The other view… Is they try a few experiments mindful that it could create chaos… And going into midterms they stabilized with more predictability market so and they have total political control 2/ post election when all Trump bros were “golden age of America” with 80s topgun hulk hogan f-yeah amurica hype videos…

We bought deep out of the money puts

Because the consensus and stability were the consensus view and the scarce contrarian view was: insane volatility ahead

1/ New Q4 Lux letter to LPs… 2/

1/ an urgent wake-up call ⏰

A new bombshell report just dropped.

China’s playbook isn’t war in the open—it’s war in the seams.

They target the gaps between state & federal, public & private, markets & security.

America must 'armor up' 🧵... 2/ The CCP’s strategy?

Hollow out U.S. strength from within.

Critical infrastructure? Infiltrated.
Universities? Compromised.
State pension funds? Financing China’s military tech.

1/ QATAR -

If you were fly on wall in Qatar's strategy meetings you’d hear their not so secret strategy

i) keep up economic relations w/Iran (esp w shared gas reserves)

ii) support Islamist groups (esp Muslim Brotherhood) + use the masses as pawns for political leverage.. 2/

iii) assert distinct identity in MidEast geopolitics as a ‘mediator’

iv) religious mafia style––foment fervent believers (funding Al Jazeera propoganda + mosques/ Imams to rule over other country populations) grow geopolitical power depsite tiny size (and no real military)

1/Memory players will be ascendant.

At recent closed-door private investor gathering I pitched 1 LONG and a basket of 3 SHORTS.

https://twitter.com/ignacioaal/status/1865482724351287420

2/ this technical paper from Apple published year ago not widely discussed was the breadcrumb clue and the inspiration I have shared with many friends since....

1/ New Lux quarterly letter to LPs...

Our theme? Tech, venture, global markets told in...

...Four parables of Four brothers
1 Prometheus
2 Menoetius
3 Epimetheus
4 Atlas 2/ The The Prometheus Promise––is Extending Human Limits what we call extensionalism

technology is not just augmenting our natural senses, but fundamentally extending and transforming them in

1/ 🏦 America needs an experienced wise and smarter than other global finance heads so he can outsmart them––a Treasury Secretary who puts 🇺🇸 first.

A leader who gets tariffs, trade, & turning the tide back in our favor.

SCOTT BESSENT is definitely THAT guy.

Here’s why: 🧵 2/ Scott understands tariffs aren’t just a policy—they’re a POWER MOVE.

While others talk, Scott will make sure unfair trade practices PAY UP.

He’s about winning for American workers and businesses.

1/ 🛡️ The FUTURE of WARFARE isn’t a “revolution” but an evolution—a mix of drones, AI, and smart strategy. What’s the playbook for Taiwan, Ukraine, and beyond?

A quick high-level dive📡 2/ 🛰️ The Gulf War heralded stealth, precision, & GPS.

Today, uncrewed systems (drones) + AI define the battlefield. But there are limits. Attrition wars teach hard lessons.

Some (first in history) news tomorrow… 2/ More than 3.5 billion years ago, life on Earth emerged from chemical reactions.

Nature invented RNA, proteins, and DNA, the core molecules of life, and created the ribosome, a molecular factory that builds proteins from instructions in the genome.

1/ Quick thread 🧵important new paper 📜from @sfiscience on the THERMODYNAMICS of COMPUTATION...

Ever wondered why your gadgets get warm after using them for a while? As with cells🧫, brains🧠 and laptops💻––it's all about energy use and heat🔥.... 2/ The key is "stopping times". In biology a cell might stop making a protein once it triggers a reaction from another cell. In simulations like a coin-flipping it may be once it reaches a set number of flips...

1/ NEW–– just released.

Lux Q1 2024 Letter to LPs… 2/ Themes:

1. Riskgaming
2. Possible adjacencies + the ADJACENT POSSIBLE
3. Build your cash position for tuck-in M&A
4. Prepare for rising cost of capital (and a lot less of it)…
5. Moravec Paradox––what’s easy is hard and what’s hard is easy

1/ We lost a brilliant, accomplished, self-effacing, humble, kind, compassionate, truth-seeking HUMAN certain only of uncertainty, child like wonder cataloging our fallabilities

I last had dinner with Danny some weeks back (we talked about...
washingtonpost.com/obituaries/202… 2/ We ate🍽 at brilliant friend+ 🎬artist (Moneyball, Capote, Foxcatcher) Bennett Miller's apt + talked ketamine & psychedelics (Danny had done), the pain of conflict in the mideast**, how both free will + consciousness were in Danny's POV total illusions even if useful ones

1/ new Q4 2023 Lux LP quarterly letter—2pgs per post 📖

•Has VC learned lesson?
•cost of capital 📈
•reigning in far-flung fanciful +fraudulent ideas
•when more are racing🏎️ to fund far FUTURE like fusion/ quantum/space elevators🙄

👇Lux funding the neglected: MAINTENANCE…

…Over the next decade, we don’t need FUSION, we need more FISSION. We don’t need quantum computers, we need more chip production. We don’t need snake oil salesmen peddling longevity schemes, we need secure reliable production of medicines in scant supply. We don’t need to build space elevators, we need to rebuild our arsenal of democracy to better equip ourselves and our allies to deter our adversaries.

The breakthroughs of the future cannot—and will not—lie on the breakdowns of the present and a break up with the past. 2/
•the merit + marvel of MAINTENANCE
• recall capex has 2 parts: growth + MAINTENANCE, often in competition with each other…

•…meanwhile contrary to expectations––a HARD LANDING hardly seems improbable

consider:
-the concentration of capital in the 10 largest stocks of the S&P is the highest it’s been since the 1970s Nifty Fifty.

-across all public companies, earnings fell more than sales growth, with margins compressing and record bond issuances increasing corporate indebtedness. A rising focus on margins has led to layoffs at over 1,000 tech companies totaling more than 250,000 workers last year

-such concentration within the S&P’s components means that a handful of companies doing well can mask the weakness in hundreds of other stocks. Investor expectations have soared around AI, and this year will show whether the fundamentals follow and the tech giants cement their dominant positions or lose hundreds of billions as investors flee. Should the market caps of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ fall, we expect it will deepen pressure for cutting-edge AI/ML research groups to spin out voluntarily to maintain their momentum as independent ventures or else depart involuntarily due to internal fiscal discipline or external activist pressure.

-The consensus as recently as Q2 2023 was an economic hard landing following a period of heightened inflation, rising rates, collapsing banks and high volatility. That pessimism has since transitioned to widespread belief in a soft landing alongside robust employment figures and expectations of the Fed cutting rates to maintain economic prosperity. Prediction markets have Trump leading Biden, and some investors believe the market has been rallying in anticipation of pro-business policies should Trump win or in response to Yellen offering an abundance of liquidity. Yet, a soft landing is hardly assured. Many surveys suggest people—despite having empirically higher incomes and net worths—feel worse emotionally due in part to sticker shock from the higher prices of everyday goods. Real estate, a key part of people’s net worths, saw sales drop to the lowest level in nearly 30 years, with 7% mortgages all but unaffordable for new homebuyers, increasing pressure on the rental market. A recent analysis by the New York Fed found credit delinquencies rising, particularly for auto loans. With elevated interest rates, consumers may struggle to maintain their mortgages, auto loans and credit card debts, leading to a cutback on essential purchases and triggering a recession. Nationally, an inverted yield curve (3-month and 10-year) continues to send a warning signal, and globally, debt is now at a record high of over $300 trillion. In just the past three years, there have been nearly 20 sovereign defaults across 10 countries, more than all defaults in the last two decades. The risk of distressed debt rippling chaos out of emerging countries is high.

A hard landing hardly seems improbable.

1/ THE TURNAROUND
Something changed recently, making many abuzz with confidence + optimism for the FUTURE of San Francisco—

—What changed? @DanielLurie will be Mayor.

Having spent time with Daniel I am 💯convinced…

1 he truly ❤️ LOVES SF 🌉

2 he will make SF safe again👮👮‍♂️ 3. That means *refunding* police👮—while being compassionate for those w/mental health problems—yet tough on crime to stop it + make everyday working families feel safe & secure

4. Just how Mike Bloomberg saved NYC
Daniel’s wealth means a very important thing—HE CAN’T BE BOUGHT

1/ INDIA. 🇮🇳

"Hey I'm walking here!!!!" 2/ 🇮🇳

1/ New Lux Capital letter to LPs — Q3 2023

theme: “ REALISM ”

let’s get real… 2/
-The history of science is the evolution of INSTRUMENTS––our invention of them, our inquiry of the natural world using them

-The human discovery of REALITY––science––is darkness dazzled by the excesses of light

-…watching an algorithmic feed that highlights the most heinous activities humanity has ever undertaken even as it suppresses stories of the pervasive goodness radiating from our multitude of multitudes.

My morning reading––replica editions

with editorial layout of ton of national + local papers

Why? Because the most important stories are often the ones the editor says are less important (hidden on like page C22) but i find higher signal/more important than front page
2/ I use Pressreader (on ipad + desktop)

Here is one EXAMPLE
Not front page news––but a small article on pg.13 of The Guardian

To me reading between the lines i see higher probability than people expect of major disruptive UNION/LABOR STRIKES in UK leading up to Christmas...

1/ From insiders close to war cabinet I learned this wk

1—horrific tragic loss of innocent lives unfairly in a time/place of WAR is real, will grow + will be terribly painful + sad

2 Israel military will be unprecedented intense + unyielding to public or foreign pressure… 2/ Over 20yrs + 5 leaders––Israel stance was “deterrence”: tolerate Iran + Hamas fiery rhetoric + threat of genocide but never take it literally, until Oct 7

Hamas would attack (2010, ’12, ’14, ’18, ’21) then Israel would block+counter, heat up, die down then few yrs of ‘peace’

1/ Sharing our new Letter to Our Partners

[ Lux Q2 2023 LP Letter ]

“Drifting Upwards…” 2/ “Quarrelsome questions abound

-Imminent recssion or improbably dodged one?
-world united vs revanchist treats or more divided?
-will AI hype fade or be existential threat?

…Those who don’t know history––are mistakenly nostaligc or ignorant of how awful most of it was…”

1/ VERY cool new SCIENCE paper via GSK scientists

They ACCIDENTALLY discovered (as most great science happens, followed by the words ‘huh. that’s odd!’) that a bacteria “TC1” 🦠inside the gut of mosquito🦟––can get rid of malaria parasite–––that causes 600,000 deaths a year… 2/ They filed patent on it claiming the discovery for reducing MALARIA transmission…

1/ Future of finance + VC

Lux partner @deenashakir 🔥with USV partner @rebeccakaden + @business📺 @CarolineHydeTV

A few clips... 2/ @deenashakir on Lux early AI investments in @huggingface + @runwayml