1/ 🚨Today history in AI 💻+ biology 🧬was made!

CZI led by Mark Zuckerberg + Priscilla Chan who've admirably committed tens of billions (and the entirety of their wealth to CZI) has acquired Lux family co Evolutionary Scale––just 2yrs after it's founding at a great multiple... 2/ We first teamed w/ @alexrives cofounder of EvolutionaryScale ~10yrs ago

cofounding Lux family Kallyope (cutting-edge bioetch focused on gut-brain axis)

Alex had the prescience to see the future of bio was computer science + AI. So he got his PhD at NYU and then...

1/ why Quantum is BULLSHIT

"paving a path towards potential future"

like saying: 'Working towards possibility of maybe a thing that might one day be a breakthrough if a breakthrough were to maybe occur'

Here I assemble just 2005 to 2015 annual headlines or this BULLSHIT

https://twitter.com/sundarpichai/status/1981013746698100811

2/ I could start in the 90s. But let's just go thru 20yrs of BULLSHIT

2005...

1/ Revealing Lux's latest

a $101M launch of new cutting-edge biotech created from one the most important scientific breakthrus Lux has seen in many yrs!

NILO

control IMMUNE system 🦠
via NERVOUS system 🧠...

we stealth funded last yr before this NATURE paper got published👇
2/ THE BIG IDEA?

Your brain has a direct hotline to your immune system.

Specific neurons in the vagus nerve detect inflammatory signals + then tell your brainstem to dial inflammation up or down.

When our team cut this connection immune responses went completely haywire!

1/ Apple researchers just dropped NEW foundation model on BEHAVIORAL data from wearables.

Forget raw sensors—think steps, heart variability, gait

Trained on 2.5B hours via 162K people

Predicts age, sex, pregnancy, sleep like a crystal ball. 2/ Their new foundation model (WBM) trained not on noisy low-level sensor data––but on derived behavioral metrics via wearables

Outperforms raw sensor models in predicting sleep, injury, & infection.

When combined CRUSH it—predicting pregnancy w/ >90% accuracy.

1/ New Lux quarterly LP letter––Q2 2025

theme: “Friction Frontier”

-Over 50% of small VCs will involuntarily exit as ~5 VCs are planning to voluntarily exit (IPO)

-Lux team has invested over half a billion dollars across 82 companies (new + existing) in the past few months…
2/
-Zuck’s “ Poachapalooza 2025”

-L&A (License + Acquihire) is the new M&A

-the AI capex surge (5% of GDP) ~ fiber-optic + router binge of 2000 tech boom (5.2%) and short step below sheet-rock bonanza of 2005 housing bubble (6.7%).

-Open source vs Closed…

1/ Beyond the hype + headlines

some eye-opening AI stats to consider

Today Mag 7 = 35% of US stock mkt value

NVDA = 19% of that––and 42% of NVDA revenue comes from just 5 Big Tech co's buying GPUs:

Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Tesla 2/At recent lunch with LP who put Lux in business I talked about shift from consensus cloud inference (GPUs + datacenters + power) to on-device inference (memory + batteries)...

Apple just GaryMarcus'd LLM reasoning ability 2/ Apple tested today's "reasoning" AIs like Claude + DeepSeek which look smart—but when complexity rises, they collapse.

Not fail gracefully. Collapse completely.

1/ Three big Lux things tonight

-@anduriltech founder Palmer Luckey on @60Minutes
“The Future of Warfare”

-@eGenesisBio on @CNN with Sanjay Gupta
“Animal Pharm”

-new Lux Q1 2025 Quarterly Letter

2/
This is one of my favorite letters we’ve ever written

The theme is PARTNERSHIPS

-between man and machine
-between present and future selves, decision, companies
-between us and our founders of Lux companies
-between Lux partners ourselves

BIG NEWS from Lux🚨…

American scientists––and those we attract to America🇺🇸––are what have helped make America not just great but absolutely + relatively EXCEPTIONAL.

We CANNOT cede scientific supremacy to China.
We don’t need talk, we need action…

https://twitter.com/lux_capital/status/1920901869594902655

2/ The 🇨🇳CCP “2035 Science & Technology Vision” states unapologetically “original innovation is the sharpest blade.” coupling that declaration w/ vast subsidies, talent visas + procurement guarantees which have helped them take lead in 37 of 44 critical and emerging technologies!

1/ My take on Trump in exchange with one of my smartest market friends.

Bizarrely I’m more sanguine.

Either it’s the greatest policy mistake and blunder of a rollout ever. OR it ends up with some grand bargain for those that want to ensure certainty and stability by doing long term deals or otherwise face massive undulating volatility in his flip-flopping, fickle whims.

I think overall across all domains (tech cos, universities, law firms, countries) they got very confident and then cocky ... I think it started with the Silicon Valley and Elon flip over… And then Zuck shifting his board and taking a knee… And he saw powerful person after powerful person pledging fealty out of fear. I think that further emboldened them the "we’re fucking here We are in total control. We have all the leverage. You do what we say or you're fucked" from big tech to Zelensky to law firms to Columbia + Harvard and then the rest of the world

And Whether it’s the market fighting back or law firms, fighting back or universities fighting back… He’s gotta double down and not show weakness or concede. He was wrong… It’s very tough game theory.

The other view… Is they try a few experiments mindful that it could create chaos… And going into midterms they stabilized with more predictability market so and they have total political control 2/ post election when all Trump bros were “golden age of America” with 80s topgun hulk hogan f-yeah amurica hype videos…

We bought deep out of the money puts

Because the consensus and stability were the consensus view and the scarce contrarian view was: insane volatility ahead

1/ New Q4 Lux letter to LPs… 2/

1/ an urgent wake-up call ⏰

A new bombshell report just dropped.

China’s playbook isn’t war in the open—it’s war in the seams.

They target the gaps between state & federal, public & private, markets & security.

America must 'armor up' 🧵... 2/ The CCP’s strategy?

Hollow out U.S. strength from within.

Critical infrastructure? Infiltrated.
Universities? Compromised.
State pension funds? Financing China’s military tech.

1/ QATAR -

If you were fly on wall in Qatar's strategy meetings you’d hear their not so secret strategy

i) keep up economic relations w/Iran (esp w shared gas reserves)

ii) support Islamist groups (esp Muslim Brotherhood) + use the masses as pawns for political leverage.. 2/

iii) assert distinct identity in MidEast geopolitics as a ‘mediator’

iv) religious mafia style––foment fervent believers (funding Al Jazeera propoganda + mosques/ Imams to rule over other country populations) grow geopolitical power depsite tiny size (and no real military)

1/Memory players will be ascendant.

At recent closed-door private investor gathering I pitched 1 LONG and a basket of 3 SHORTS.

https://twitter.com/ignacioaal/status/1865482724351287420

2/ this technical paper from Apple published year ago not widely discussed was the breadcrumb clue and the inspiration I have shared with many friends since....

1/ New Lux quarterly letter to LPs...

Our theme? Tech, venture, global markets told in...

...Four parables of Four brothers
1 Prometheus
2 Menoetius
3 Epimetheus
4 Atlas 2/ The The Prometheus Promise––is Extending Human Limits what we call extensionalism

technology is not just augmenting our natural senses, but fundamentally extending and transforming them in

1/ 🏦 America needs an experienced wise and smarter than other global finance heads so he can outsmart them––a Treasury Secretary who puts 🇺🇸 first.

A leader who gets tariffs, trade, & turning the tide back in our favor.

SCOTT BESSENT is definitely THAT guy.

Here’s why: 🧵 2/ Scott understands tariffs aren’t just a policy—they’re a POWER MOVE.

While others talk, Scott will make sure unfair trade practices PAY UP.

He’s about winning for American workers and businesses.

1/ 🛡️ The FUTURE of WARFARE isn’t a “revolution” but an evolution—a mix of drones, AI, and smart strategy. What’s the playbook for Taiwan, Ukraine, and beyond?

A quick high-level dive📡 2/ 🛰️ The Gulf War heralded stealth, precision, & GPS.

Today, uncrewed systems (drones) + AI define the battlefield. But there are limits. Attrition wars teach hard lessons.

Some (first in history) news tomorrow… 2/ More than 3.5 billion years ago, life on Earth emerged from chemical reactions.

Nature invented RNA, proteins, and DNA, the core molecules of life, and created the ribosome, a molecular factory that builds proteins from instructions in the genome.

1/ Quick thread 🧵important new paper 📜from @sfiscience on the THERMODYNAMICS of COMPUTATION...

Ever wondered why your gadgets get warm after using them for a while? As with cells🧫, brains🧠 and laptops💻––it's all about energy use and heat🔥.... 2/ The key is "stopping times". In biology a cell might stop making a protein once it triggers a reaction from another cell. In simulations like a coin-flipping it may be once it reaches a set number of flips...

1/ NEW–– just released.

Lux Q1 2024 Letter to LPs… 2/ Themes:

1. Riskgaming
2. Possible adjacencies + the ADJACENT POSSIBLE
3. Build your cash position for tuck-in M&A
4. Prepare for rising cost of capital (and a lot less of it)…
5. Moravec Paradox––what’s easy is hard and what’s hard is easy

1/ We lost a brilliant, accomplished, self-effacing, humble, kind, compassionate, truth-seeking HUMAN certain only of uncertainty, child like wonder cataloging our fallabilities

I last had dinner with Danny some weeks back (we talked about...
washingtonpost.com/obituaries/202… 2/ We ate🍽 at brilliant friend+ 🎬artist (Moneyball, Capote, Foxcatcher) Bennett Miller's apt + talked ketamine & psychedelics (Danny had done), the pain of conflict in the mideast**, how both free will + consciousness were in Danny's POV total illusions even if useful ones