Reality check: #SARSCoV2 will never be endemic. It is an epidemic disease, and always will be. This means it will find unvaccinated or under-vaccinated people and spread rapidly in those groups. It will display the typical waxing and waning pattern of epidemic diseases 1/5.
Cases rise rapidly over days or weeks. No truly endemic disease does this. This is the reason governments prepare for pandemics - the propensity for epidemics to grow rapidly can stress the health system in a very short time. Here is the pattern, classic epidemic. 2/5
Every epidemic infection follows this pattern unless eliminated by vaccination or mitigated by non-pharmaceutical measures. Natural infection NEVER eliminated any infection. Not smallpox, which displayed the same pattern over 100s of years. 3/5
Not measles, still epidemic in many countries. See Australia before and after a major measles control campaign. Elimination is a technical term, means prevention of sustained community transmission. Countries that met WHO elimination criteria still see outbreaks of measles. 4/5
So don't be surprised as we see this pattern continue for SARS Cov2. Vaccines, masks and other public health measures are needed. There is hope for better vaccines, schedules and spacing of doses but we must be agile and pivot with the evidence.
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.