Oh dear. Trade geekery needs an upgrade 😉
A whopping 86% of you GOT THIS WRONG!
The correct answer is … 154
That’s all 164 @wto members EXCEPT the 10 that have not ratified the agreement.
Why? Does it matter?
Maybe.
Cc: @craigaatkinson @maheenhassan3 @AllieRenison
1/11
The #TradeFacilitationAgreement is multilateral, the whole WTO membership (164) agreeing by consensus.
But to add it in the WTO’s rule book, WTO members had to insert it in the package of agreements—by amending Annex 1 of the WTO Agreement.
2/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
So rules on amendments apply—WTO Agreement, Art.10, Par.3:
“Amendments … shall take effect for the Members that have accepted them upon acceptance by two thirds of the Members and thereafter for each other Member upon acceptance by it.”
3/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
Right now, 154 WTO members have accepted (ratified) the Trade Facilitation Agreement. That means
(1) the two-thirds threshold has been reached, so the agreement can “take effect”
(2) it ”takes effect” in the 154 members that have accepted it
4/11 tfafacility.org/notifications-…
And in case anyone wants to question whether “take effect” is the same as “applies”, the WTO website clearly uses them as the same
5/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
Which 10 have NOT ratified the agreement?
DR Congo, EU, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Mauritania, Solomon Islands, Surname, Tonga, Venezuela, Yemen
Your eyesight is fine—the EU has not ratified it. Not according to this. But the 27 member states have:
6/11 tfafacility.org/notifications-…
Wait!
According to another list, the EU has ratified. But the 27 EU member states are not on this list
The EU has got its legal knickers in a twist. Follow the link, click on the “instrument”, see footnote 1
“How many is the EU + 27 members?” “27”
7/11 wto.org/english/tratop…
Implications?
The only other WTO amendment—agreed in 2005–is on exporting generic medicines under compulsory licence
Over 2/3 of the membership have ratified, so it’s “in effect”, but only in 134 members
16 years later, 30 still have not ratified
8/11 wto.org/english/tratop…
That’s why the WTO’s website has TWO versions of the intellectual property agreement.
One is the original version, which still applies in the 30 (or is it 31?) members that have not ratified the amendment.
The other is for those that have.
9/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
The next amendment (hopefully): #FisheriesSubsidies.
It would be added to an annex of the WTO Agreement.
What if it is approved by consensus, gets its two-thirds ratification but [… add name of major player …] delays ratification forever?
10/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/11/10/six…
The last part of Art.10.3 kicks in, a marvel of legal drafting.
I’m not a lawyer but I take it to mean “we can kick you out with a 75% majority, and you can only stay with our permission.”
I could be wrong, of course
11/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
All of this⬆️ now blogged⬇️
TL:DR—if by some miracle a #FisheriesSubsidies deal is struck at the Nov30–Dec 3 WTO Ministerial Conference, it will take a least a year or two to be added to the rule book.
And even then it might not apply to all countries
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/11/17/fis…
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