@CoppetainPU's Threads
Interesting from the UK ambassador to Thailand.
It's about the Thai constitutional court dissolving a popular opposition party
It's about the Thai constitutional court dissolving a popular opposition party
👇🏽
More here
Anyone looking for signals on how the US approaches trade relations might be interested in the statement it made earlier this week at the WTO.
WTO members were reviewing the EU’s trade policy. This is how the US kicked off its statement.
geneva.usmission.gov/2020/02/18/u-s…
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WTO members were reviewing the EU’s trade policy. This is how the US kicked off its statement.
geneva.usmission.gov/2020/02/18/u-s…
1/6
This is pure Trumpist economics, everything determined by the bilateral deficit, proof that the EU is protectionist.
That first paragraph puts the statement in a different light. Without, it would be a standard comment in a trade policy review.
2/6
geneva.usmission.gov/2020/02/18/u-s…
That first paragraph puts the statement in a different light. Without, it would be a standard comment in a trade policy review.
2/6
geneva.usmission.gov/2020/02/18/u-s…
So, was that comment about the trade deficit put there simply for the benefit of the White House?
Or is the US’s approach in the WTO now going to be driven by bilateral trade balances?
3/6
Or is the US’s approach in the WTO now going to be driven by bilateral trade balances?
3/6
"This seems to indicate that the US is willing to forgo appeals 'into the void' and also suggests some degree of openness on the part of the US towards Article 25 as an alternative appeal process."
Doc circulated today in dispute DS488, post-ruling, implementation stage
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Doc circulated today in dispute DS488, post-ruling, implementation stage
1/3
DS488 is "United States—Anti-Dumping Measures on Certain Oil Country Tubular Goods from Korea" (wonderful title!)
The US lost the case. S.Korea wants to be allowed to retaliate; the US wants arbitration on whether it is now complying
2/3
wto.org/english/tratop…
The US lost the case. S.Korea wants to be allowed to retaliate; the US wants arbitration on whether it is now complying
2/3
wto.org/english/tratop…
Today's document: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
@snlester spotted paragraphs 4 & 5, leading to his comment about not appealing "into the void".
(A well-known problem of the badly drafted rules: unclear sequence—compliance arbitration (Art21.5), authorising retaliation (Art22.6))
3/3
@snlester spotted paragraphs 4 & 5, leading to his comment about not appealing "into the void".
(A well-known problem of the badly drafted rules: unclear sequence—compliance arbitration (Art21.5), authorising retaliation (Art22.6))
3/3
NEW WTO DISPUTE
Japan has filed a complaint with the WTO about alleged S.Korean shipbuilding subsidies. The complaint focuses on restructuring finance for Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, and some others.
The full 17-page complaint is here: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
1/3
Japan has filed a complaint with the WTO about alleged S.Korean shipbuilding subsidies. The complaint focuses on restructuring finance for Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, and some others.
The full 17-page complaint is here: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
1/3
This is dispute case DS594. All information on this case will be compiled here: wto.org/english/tratop…
A “request for consultations” is the first stage in a dispute. After about two months, if still unresolved, it can move on to the stage when a panel hears the case
2/3
A “request for consultations” is the first stage in a dispute. After about two months, if still unresolved, it can move on to the stage when a panel hears the case
2/3
This is the 2nd similar dispute filed by Japan against S.Korea.
The first, DS571, from Nov 2018, went quiet within two months, without a dispute panel being appointed wto.org/english/tratop…
Japan has not explained the switch, but the new complaint is longer, more details.
3/3
The first, DS571, from Nov 2018, went quiet within two months, without a dispute panel being appointed wto.org/english/tratop…
Japan has not explained the switch, but the new complaint is longer, more details.
3/3
A number of people have questioned this 👇🏽
The argument goes: Since a pro-Brexit view is the UK can fare just as well under WTO rules as it can as an EU member, it’s valid to compare the two.
But trying to understand the two through the lens of Brexit is misleading.
Why?
1/11
The argument goes: Since a pro-Brexit view is the UK can fare just as well under WTO rules as it can as an EU member, it’s valid to compare the two.
But trying to understand the two through the lens of Brexit is misleading.
Why?
1/11
1. It *is* valid to compare the *impacts* of operating under WTO rules *alone*, with the *impact* of EU membership or any other UK-EU relationship.
But it is misleading to compare the two as organisations.
2/11
ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-the-lon…
But it is misleading to compare the two as organisations.
2/11
ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-the-lon…
Since the UK, EU and EU member states are all WTO members, WTO rules *always* apply to all of them, non matter what the UK-EU relationship is, or even if there is no trade relationship.
Any UK-EU relationship is built on top of WTO rules.
3/11
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/06/17/wto…
Any UK-EU relationship is built on top of WTO rules.
3/11
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/06/17/wto…
Today’s Swiss voting results, the first of up to four votes this year.
The popular initiative on affordable housing was rejected. Main support was in the French-speaking west.
The government had recommended “no”, saying it had alternative ways.
1/2
swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…
The popular initiative on affordable housing was rejected. Main support was in the French-speaking west.
The government had recommended “no”, saying it had alternative ways.
1/2
swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…
The referendum on banning discrimination against sexual orientation was overwhelmingly passed, except in conservative central cantons.
There were also local votes in some areas.
(Popular initiatives and referendums are not the same in Switzerland)
2/2
swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…
There were also local votes in some areas.
(Popular initiatives and referendums are not the same in Switzerland)
2/2
swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…
NEW: another WTO appeals report from an Appellate Body on its sickbed.
Today, the appeal upheld a Canadian complaint (DS505) against the US tariffs imposed to “countervail” alleged Canadian subsidies on “supercalendered paper”.
1/5
wto.org/english/news_e…
Today, the appeal upheld a Canadian complaint (DS505) against the US tariffs imposed to “countervail” alleged Canadian subsidies on “supercalendered paper”.
1/5
wto.org/english/news_e…
I know.
I had to look it up too. Supercalendered paper is a cheap shiny paper used for magazines, without an actual glossy coating.
lifewire.com/supercalendere…
The panel and appeals reports now go to the WTO membership for adoption in the Dispute Settlement Body in 30 days
2/5
I had to look it up too. Supercalendered paper is a cheap shiny paper used for magazines, without an actual glossy coating.
lifewire.com/supercalendere…
The panel and appeals reports now go to the WTO membership for adoption in the Dispute Settlement Body in 30 days
2/5
The main issue is about calculating the alleged subsidy.
US measure was revoked when the first-stage panel report was circulated.
But the US appealed anyway to clarify legal issues particularly on the use of “facts available”.
3/5
US measure was revoked when the first-stage panel report was circulated.
But the US appealed anyway to clarify legal issues particularly on the use of “facts available”.
3/5
Liz Truss on UK tariffs.
The “temporary tariff regime” not used
New consultations aim to
â—Ź simplify and tailor tariffs
â—Ź remove tariffs on key inputs to production
â—Ź remove tariffs where the UK has no or limited production
H/T @Brigid_Fowler
1/4
parliament.uk/business/publi…
The “temporary tariff regime” not used
New consultations aim to
â—Ź simplify and tailor tariffs
â—Ź remove tariffs on key inputs to production
â—Ź remove tariffs where the UK has no or limited production
H/T @Brigid_Fowler
1/4
parliament.uk/business/publi…
Note:
1. These are “applied” tariffs. If they are below the “bound” levels the UK has committed in the WTO (now via EU28, after the transition via the UK’s own commitments), they are fully legal, no need for negotiations in the WTO.
2/4
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/28/a-r…
1. These are “applied” tariffs. If they are below the “bound” levels the UK has committed in the WTO (now via EU28, after the transition via the UK’s own commitments), they are fully legal, no need for negotiations in the WTO.
2/4
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/07/28/a-r…
2. Let’s hope “simplify” means getting rid of this Meursing Monstrosity 👇🏽 along with seasonal tariffs and tariffs expressed as combinations of euros and % (although UK exporters will still face them in the EU if there’s no trade deal).
3/4
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/08/18/eu-…
3/4
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/08/18/eu-…
NEW. The WTO Appellate Body (still gasping its last breaths) has released its appeal report in a case brought by Ukraine against Russia on conformity assessments for railway equipment (DS499)
It's complicated. Some points upheld, others rejected
1/3
wto.org/english/tratop…
It's complicated. Some points upheld, others rejected
1/3
wto.org/english/tratop…
Bottom line: Russia is violating the Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement (TBT), but in ways and for reasons that are not entirely the same as in the original panel report
It now has to correct what it is doing wrong in a "reasonable period of time"
2/3
wto.org/english/docs_e…
It now has to correct what it is doing wrong in a "reasonable period of time"
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wto.org/english/docs_e…
The case is based on Article 5 of the Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement, which includes non-discrimination in conformity assessments and a host of other requirements.
It really is complicated
3/3
wto.org/english/docs_e…
It really is complicated
3/3
wto.org/english/docs_e…
Lots for people to comment about in Johnson’s speech.
I’ll stick to 3 points on trade and the WTO.
I’ll ignore the comment on the Uruguay Round, the simplistic blame game on the Doha Round (nothing on India?) and calling WTO terms “like Australia”
gov.uk/government/spe…
1/n
I’ll stick to 3 points on trade and the WTO.
I’ll ignore the comment on the Uruguay Round, the simplistic blame game on the Doha Round (nothing on India?) and calling WTO terms “like Australia”
gov.uk/government/spe…
1/n
1. “And today in Geneva as our ambassador Julian Braithwaite moves seats in the WTO and takes back control of our tariff schedules …”
— Wrong. During the the transition the UK stays in the EU customs union. It’s still the EU28 tariff schedule
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— Wrong. During the the transition the UK stays in the EU customs union. It’s still the EU28 tariff schedule
2/n
2. “… it is high time I think we all agree that [the US] cut their punitive tariffs on Scotch whisky”
Clue: “punitive”. These are WTO-authorised tariffs because the UK violated WTO rules on subsidies (for Airbus). Will the UK comply with the ruling?
uktradeforum.net/2020/01/24/bbc…
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Clue: “punitive”. These are WTO-authorised tariffs because the UK violated WTO rules on subsidies (for Airbus). Will the UK comply with the ruling?
uktradeforum.net/2020/01/24/bbc…
3/n
Several media reporting this.
theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
1. "No concessions" means no negotiation.
"This is what we want"
"What will you give in return?"
"Nothing"
"Bye-bye"
2. In less than a year? ...
1/4
theguardian.com/politics/2020/…
1. "No concessions" means no negotiation.
"This is what we want"
"What will you give in return?"
"Nothing"
"Bye-bye"
2. In less than a year? ...
1/4
... "a hardline trade deal in less than a year that is 'at least as ambitious' as that struck by Canada with the EU"
Hardline AND ambitious. And at least as ambitious as Canada-EU (CETA). With NO concessions
"What the hell does that even mean?"
2/4
Hardline AND ambitious. And at least as ambitious as Canada-EU (CETA). With NO concessions
"What the hell does that even mean?"
2/4
Q. How ambitious was CETA?
30 chapters plus annexes on 1,598 pages, covering everything from tariffs, food safety, product standards, and services (not very ambitious), to patents, etc, investment, labour, environment, dispute settlement & more
See: ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/i…
3/4
30 chapters plus annexes on 1,598 pages, covering everything from tariffs, food safety, product standards, and services (not very ambitious), to patents, etc, investment, labour, environment, dispute settlement & more
See: ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/i…
3/4
First responses to the Cairns Group’s proposal to curb trade-distorting domestic farm support, there were negative responses of varying degrees from China, the EU and the US.
(“Special sessions” is secret WTO code for negotiations)
….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL222919/Divid… (paywalled)
1/3
(“Special sessions” is secret WTO code for negotiations)
….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL222919/Divid… (paywalled)
1/3
Responses included: take population size into account (China); it’s difficult (EU—stick to WTO-defined trade-distorting) (Japan—market access too); time is short, better things to do before the June Ministerial Conference (US)
Other long-standing sticky issues debated too
2/3
Other long-standing sticky issues debated too
2/3
Who are the Cairns Group, and what are they proposing? Answers in this 👇🏽 thread.
(I wonder. Will the UK join them? Perhaps not during the Brexit transition while it shares the EU28’s WTO commitments on tariffs, tariff-quotas and farm support.)
3/3
(I wonder. Will the UK join them? Perhaps not during the Brexit transition while it shares the EU28’s WTO commitments on tariffs, tariff-quotas and farm support.)
3/3
So what is this "Canada-style"? It means copying the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU.
It's 1,598 pages long.
What does all that paper contain? Thread ...
1/n
It's 1,598 pages long.
What does all that paper contain? Thread ...
1/n
The "Canada model" contains these chapters. Imagine trying to complete this by the end of the year.
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/i…
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ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/i…
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The "Canada model" contains these chapters. Imagine trying to complete this by the end of the year.
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/i…
3/n
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/i…
3/n
Behind the bland, bureaucratic name—“Standards and Trade Development Facility”—lies some real important work.
This is about creating projects to help developing countries improve standards on food safety and animal/plant health, vital for well-being as well as for trade.
This is about creating projects to help developing countries improve standards on food safety and animal/plant health, vital for well-being as well as for trade.
More on the programme here: standardsfacility.org
And more on food safety, animal/plant health (SPS) in the WTO, here: wto.org/english/tratop…
BREAKING: WTO members met as the Dispute Settlement Body today (yes it still functions)
1. They adopted a first-stage panel ruling in Indonesia's complaint (dispute DS529) against Australian anti-dumping duties on A4 copy paper. Neither side appealed.
wto.org/english/tratop…
1. They adopted a first-stage panel ruling in Indonesia's complaint (dispute DS529) against Australian anti-dumping duties on A4 copy paper. Neither side appealed.
wto.org/english/tratop…
2. The US continued to block a call from 120 WTO members to start selecting appeals judges to fill vacancies.
Several delegations noted the statement by ministers from 45 members announcing they would use WTO arbitration while appeals are not possible.
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/08/21/bot…
Several delegations noted the statement by ministers from 45 members announcing they would use WTO arbitration while appeals are not possible.
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/08/21/bot…
3. China said it would reform its market price support for wheat and rice in order to comply with a panel ruling that said the support exceeded China’s entitlement (DS511). China did not appeal.
The deadline to comply is March 31
wto.org/english/tratop… / end
The deadline to comply is March 31
wto.org/english/tratop… / end
This is required for the transition under the Withdrawal Agreement, footnote to Article 129 on page 193 of the UK version assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The other countries are under no obligation to accept this, but are unlikely to object
The other countries are under no obligation to accept this, but are unlikely to object
Today, Jan 1, 2020, is the @wto’s 25th anniversary.
Well known: Its struggles in dispute settlement and negotiating new agreements.
Much less attention paid to: its success. This is important for understanding international trade.
Thread: 1/7
Updated: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/wto…
Well known: Its struggles in dispute settlement and negotiating new agreements.
Much less attention paid to: its success. This is important for understanding international trade.
Thread: 1/7
Updated: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/wto…
First, let’s get rid of the idea that the WTO has ground to a halt because of the dispute settlement crisis.
Far from it. Here’s the calendar of meetings for 2020 (more will be added during the year).
These meetings are key to the story.
2/7
wto.org/english/news_e…
Far from it. Here’s the calendar of meetings for 2020 (more will be added during the year).
These meetings are key to the story.
2/7
wto.org/english/news_e…
Bertelsmann Stiftung has a paper on the economic value of the rules-based global trading system.
Some tough nuts to crack: how to isolate cause and effect—when the WTO has no enforcement, relying on members’ self-interest.
My take, 4 points:
3/7
Some tough nuts to crack: how to isolate cause and effect—when the WTO has no enforcement, relying on members’ self-interest.
My take, 4 points:
3/7
How long do trade negotiations take? This one has been up and crawling for a quarter of a century.
As you prepare the drink (and even the cheeseboard, or other delicacies) for upcoming festivities, here’s a little known fact about these goodies and the WTO.
1/10
As you prepare the drink (and even the cheeseboard, or other delicacies) for upcoming festivities, here’s a little known fact about these goodies and the WTO.
1/10
Back in 1994—25 years ago—WTO members agreed to negotiate a register for geographical indications for wines & spirits
Geographical indications are names of products associated with places, and having particular qualities. Think Scotch, Gruyère, etc
2/10
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/05/05/wha…
Geographical indications are names of products associated with places, and having particular qualities. Think Scotch, Gruyère, etc
2/10
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/05/05/wha…
WTO members all agree there should be a multilateral register. They disagree on what it should do
Underlying this: the WTO’s intellectual property agreement (“TRIPS”) says the countries themselves can decide how IP is protected under their own laws
3/10
wto.org/english/docs_e…
Underlying this: the WTO’s intellectual property agreement (“TRIPS”) says the countries themselves can decide how IP is protected under their own laws
3/10
wto.org/english/docs_e…
Statement by EU ambassador JoĂŁo Aguiar Machado on the WTO Appellate Body crisis, at today's General Council meeting.
What do we learn?
1/3
eeas.europa.eu/delegations/wo…
What do we learn?
1/3
eeas.europa.eu/delegations/wo…
We learn that NZ ambassador David Walker, who chairs the Dispute Settlement Body and is mediating in the crisis, has submitted a revised proposal, but that the US has rejected it.
2/3
eeas.europa.eu/delegations/wo…
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eeas.europa.eu/delegations/wo…
The EU wants a negotiated solution instead of crippling dispute settlement.
It insists on its right to appeal dispute panel rulings and is working on alternatives.
(It has agreements with Canada and Norway to use arbitration for appeals)
3/3
eeas.europa.eu/delegations/wo…
It insists on its right to appeal dispute panel rulings and is working on alternatives.
(It has agreements with Canada and Norway to use arbitration for appeals)
3/3
eeas.europa.eu/delegations/wo…
They just keep on coming. This morning it was the turn of @bbcworldservice Newsday bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1… (from 14 mins 50 seconds)
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The BBC's reporter said WTO dispute settlement decides whether trade measures are “fair”. That misses the point completely. It's about keeping your promises (commitments) and playing by agreed rules.
#RulesBasedTrade
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1… from 14 mins 50 secs
2/3
#RulesBasedTrade
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1… from 14 mins 50 secs
2/3
Newsday’s guest said the WTO’s function is to settle disputes. It’s not.
It’s to keep trade flowing smoothly & predictably, through negotiated rules (agreements).
Dispute settlement is one of many tools to achieve that
#RulesBasedTrade
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1… from 14:50
3/3
It’s to keep trade flowing smoothly & predictably, through negotiated rules (agreements).
Dispute settlement is one of many tools to achieve that
#RulesBasedTrade
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w1… from 14:50
3/3
The WTO crisis comes to a head this week. We're going to see more like this:
"It could also signal the end of the [WTO] itself, since the system for settling disputes has long been its most effective part." @nytimes no less. (@AnaSwanson)
It's wrong 1/5
nytimes.com/2019/12/08/bus…
"It could also signal the end of the [WTO] itself, since the system for settling disputes has long been its most effective part." @nytimes no less. (@AnaSwanson)
It's wrong 1/5
nytimes.com/2019/12/08/bus…
First: settling disputes is not, and never has been, the WTO's most effective part.
A large part of WTO work keeps international trade flowing smoothly within WTO rules through transparency (notifications) and talking (regular meetings).
A tiny, tiny part is legal disputes
2/5
A large part of WTO work keeps international trade flowing smoothly within WTO rules through transparency (notifications) and talking (regular meetings).
A tiny, tiny part is legal disputes
2/5
Appeals are vital for dispute settlement, and dispute settlement is vital for WTO work.
But other work is also vital. Raising concerns in regular committees helps avoid disputes.
For more, see this👇🏽, and other comments in the thread.
3/5
But other work is also vital. Raising concerns in regular committees helps avoid disputes.
For more, see this👇🏽, and other comments in the thread.
3/5
The EU has now appealed this ruling (good luck with that, EU, since the WTO Appellate Body loses its quorum on Tuesday. Or is it Wednesday?).
The document WT/DS316/RW2 will be available in a few days. Full information on this case is here wto.org/english/tratop…
1/2
The document WT/DS316/RW2 will be available in a few days. Full information on this case is here wto.org/english/tratop…
1/2
Meanwhile, the US’s WTO-authorised tariffs on Scotch whisky, cashmere knitwear, cheese, wine remain in place in retaliation for the failure to comply with the original ruling.
More here👇🏽:
2/2
More here👇🏽:
2/2
P.S. the list of US tariffs in retaliation is now here: ustr.gov/sites/default/…
One gone, 13 left.
Morocco has withdrawn its appeal in a WTO dispute brought by Turkey over Moroccan anti-dumping action against its steel.
Morocco said it still considers the legal arguments of the 1st-stage dispute panel to be flawed, but …
wto.org/english/tratop…
1/3
Morocco has withdrawn its appeal in a WTO dispute brought by Turkey over Moroccan anti-dumping action against its steel.
Morocco said it still considers the legal arguments of the 1st-stage dispute panel to be flawed, but …
wto.org/english/tratop…
1/3
… but, said Morocco, the anti-dumping measure have expired, rendering the panel's legal interpretations moot.
"Consequently, and in light of the heavy workload of the Appellate Body, Morocco has decided to withdraw the appeal."
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
2/3
"Consequently, and in light of the heavy workload of the Appellate Body, Morocco has decided to withdraw the appeal."
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
2/3
This leaves 13 on-going appeals, days before the Appellate Body loses two of its three remaining judges and its quorum to consider appeals, on December 10.
3/3
wto.org/english/tratop…
3/3
wto.org/english/tratop…
The first-stage ruling in this dispute found that Australia’s investigation (into whether Indonesia “dumped” A4 paper) was flawed—in particular the technical calculation of what the “normal price” would be.
Dumping is when the price of an import is lower than “normal”
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Dumping is when the price of an import is lower than “normal”
1/3
WTO rules allow countries to raise tariffs against “dumped” products, to offset how much lower than the “normal price” are the prices of the imported goods (the “dumping margin”).
Full details of the legal dispute are here: wto.org/english/tratop…
2/3
Full details of the legal dispute are here: wto.org/english/tratop…
2/3
