🧵 On Sunday, the much-postponed 12th WTO Ministerial Conference #MC12 starts.

Here is another curtain-raiser, with @BobWolfeSPS

@wto Director-General @NOIweala believes it will be a success.

But what does “success” mean?

1/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou… “Many gaps remain but we are making progress,” @NOIweala told members on Tuesday Jun 7

“The success of this whole endeavour is in our hands. Let us deliver. The people outside are waiting for us and, believe it or not, I really think we will do it.”

2/11 wto.org/english/news_e…

Was it worth the time looking at the UK’s big deal with Indiana? The one the government hails as a “milestone” and the minister calls a “US trade deal”?

They wants us to take it seriously. So I did. Let’s say I did it so you don’t have to.

1/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil… TL:DR it's not a trade agreement.

It's a memorandum of understanding, a non-binding statement of intent.

The only trade barrier that might get tackled is govt procurement.

Indiana's state-level entities have no commitments on procurement in the WTO

2/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…

“Agreement with Indiana marks milestone in UK’s trade with the US”—the UK government proclaims

Read on

It's a memorandum of understanding on what the UK and Indiana want to develop in their trade and economic relations. That stretches the meaning of “agreement” quite a lot

1/9

https://twitter.com/snlester/status/1530003431301300224

Good question⬇️. Short answer: no

So, all we know is what the UK government press release says.

2/9

https://twitter.com/Valeriemaeve/status/1530118233595985921?s=20&t=SQwTUHyj-i2Nv7B9SNaVkw

It’s been clear for some time that WTO members are unlikely to agree on anything substantial on agriculture—despite declaring it a priority—when their ministers meet in Geneva Jun 12–15

Information from trade sources on a meeting last Thu May 19 reinforce that assessment🧵

1/11 The focus has changed in recent months—the Ukraine war has increased concerns about food security.

But the best binding decision that can be expected is to exempt the World Food Programme’s humanitarian purchases from export restrictions—still opposed by India & Tanzania.

2/11

Another day, another WTO topic where members find themselves under pressure to reach agreement within days.

Today: fisheries subsidies, at the end of a “Fish Week” of talks in various formats on curbing harmful subsidies that encourage overfishing.

1/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks… Chair @WillsSantiago briefed the media after a stock-taking meeting of the membership.

Sandwiched between plenaries Mon and Fri, were sessions in various formats. Wills said 30-40 delegations were involved in each of those sessions, total about 50.

2/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…

WTO members on all sides were urged today to sort out their reservations over the proposed compromise, so that a deal on waiving some intellectual property protection for COVID-19 can be struck by the Jun 12-15 Ministerial Conference, trade sources say.

1/14 #TRIPSwaiver In an informal meeting of the WTO intellectual property (TRIPS) council, Director-General @NOIweala said WTO members have no option but to produce a result for the #MC12 Ministerial Conference, even if that means negotiating round the clock, the sources said.

2/14

Today’s WTO General Council meeting largely reflected exchanges in the May 6 intellectual property (TRIPS) council, with a couple of points firmed up.

One, said WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell, is that most WTO members accepted the compromise as a text that can be negotiated.

1/6

https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1522621504613195778

TRIPS Council chair Amb. Lansana Gberie (Sierra Leone) said: "It is the only product that we have. It’s the only game in town.” No one disagreed according to Rockwell.

So for the first time members will negotiate a text, and it will be this one.

2/6 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/text-g4-trips-…

WTO members were largely non-committal today in their first reaction to the proposed compromise text on intellectual property and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most said they needed more time to study it, although some indicated some concerns

The text: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/text-g4-trips-…

1/12 None of the “Quad”—EU, India, South Africa, US—wholeheartedly endorsed it even though the text emerged from consultations among them, with the help of WTO director-general @NOIweala and her deputy @_AnabelG

Their common line was they hoped it could lead to agreement.

2/12

(I missed this last week. H/T @BobWolfeSPS)

TRANSPARENCY PROPOSAL for WTO General Council or Ministerial Conference.

The 9th revision of the proposal makes one major change, which improves its chances of being accepted.

Gone are proposed penalties.

1/5 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S… This is about transparency in what governments do under the WTO trade agreements.

It’s a major role of the WTO, achieved by members notifying each other (and the world at large) through the WTO. That allows understanding, scrutiny and feedback.

2/5 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

Some thoughts on the Jun 12-15 slimline WTO Ministerial Conference #DietMC12

The biggest challenge: persuading ministers it’s worth travelling to Geneva in the first place

What does “slimline” entail?

• Most decisions taken before the meeting—ministers just endorse them

1/10

https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1521888799705518081

• Those decisions will be more technical (eg extending duty-free e-commerce) than political.

• Big political decisions are unlikely before or during the conference anyway (agriculture, even fisheries subsidies, reforming dispute settlement)

2/10 wto.org/english/thewto…

Last week’s (Apr 27) informal meeting in the WTO agriculture negotiations.

No sign of a deal.

Chair @GloriaAbrahamP’s report on the state of play, with an eye on the WTO Ministerial Conference in June (MC12), usefully released as a public document:

1/10 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S… Topic by topic

Domestic support—high priority, need for balance, avoiding support causing concentration of supply. But no prospect of agreement by June, so settling for a “general work programme might be feasible”

2/10 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

A WTO legal dispute panel has found that the EU🇪🇺 violated WTO rules when it imposed “safeguard” tariffs in steel imports from Turkey🇹🇷.

It also dismissed a number of other claims by Turkey and declined to consider some others.

But that’s not all.

1/5 wto.org/english/news_e… By allowing the panel’s findings to be circulated, 🇪🇺 and 🇹🇷 won’t appeal—so the findings will be adopted by the WTO membership.

That’s what the two have agreed bilaterally on appealing by arbitration when the WTO Appellate Body cannot function.

2/5

https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1519703542210170888?s=20&t=h7aBXgIZK0KmnzfC7cSO_Q

The latest development in an interesting case, procedurally.

The use of arbitration (under Art25 of WTO dispute settlement rules, DSU) is a way double checking an initial panel ruling when proper appeal is not possible.

I'm not a lawyer but this is how I understand it 🧵

1/9

https://twitter.com/snlester/status/1519681362869067777

Full details of the case DS583 from 2019⬇️

In it, the EU🇪🇺 complains that Turkey’s🇹🇷 measures on pharmaceuticals⚕️ discriminate against foreign products or producers through eg, localisation & banning imports that compete with localised products.

2/9 wto.org/english/tratop…

Geographical indications are now increasingly applied to products that are not food or drink.

Carpets are a typical case, here, from Kashmir.

What this news story doesn’t say is whether the protection for Kashmiri Carpets in India also applies in Germany.

1/4

https://twitter.com/BajajPallavi11/status/1518591143323500544

The answer is almost certainly “no”. The EU is only starting to set up protection for names of non-food/non-drink products.

Has India registered this as a trademark in the EU/Germany? The story doesn’t say.

Otherwise copies could be sold in Germany.

2/4

https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/1516108764096643073?s=20&t=ADwW7-WcbZmRlpIogJ2Z6g

Yesterday the Japanese parliament passed a law withdrawing non-discrimination (MFN) from trade with Russia over the Ukraine conflict.

Apparently it’s a political statement confirming Japan’s participation in the G7 (&EU) move in March.

H/T @Kurako76

1/3 abcnews.go.com/amp/Internatio… In practice Japan had already suspended MFN by blocking exports of dual-use technology products, luxury and other goods in March ➡️globaltradealert.org/latest/state-a…

The Japan Times (Mar16): “there is no set outcome on what happens” after MFN has been revoked japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/03/1…

2/3

Trade is dreadfully dull and boring.

But if there’s one issue that can be guaranteed get trade geeks shouting names at each other it’s geographical indications—names like “champagne” and “feta”

@insidetrade broke the news last week that the EU is planning a major overhaul

1/6 There’s a 77-page document, which is indeed dreadfully dull and boring➡️ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…

But there’s also a statement saying the EU wants to expand the protection from names of food and drink, to things that are not food and drink.

2/6 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

Yesterday, US President Biden signed into law two bills (now acts) imposing sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

• H.R. 7108 removes Russia & Belarus from “normal trading relations” (non-discrimination, or MFN in the WTO), allowing them to be targeted.

1/4 whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… Removing NTR/MFN is significant *under US law*, not in the WTO

Removing normal trading relations shifts US import duties from standard rates to higher rates in “column 2”

The new law also allows the president to raise tariffs above “column 2” rates

2/4 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/03/04/ukr…

UK FARM SUBSIDIES

Today, Britain's first post-Brexit notification to the WTO on domestic agricultural support has been circulated (for 2021).

It include "zero" for trade-distorting support (aka AMS or "Amber Box") with an entitlement of almost £5bn

1/8 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S… Trade-distorting domestic support is not counted if it is below the "de minimis" threshold of 5% of the value of production.

The UK figures really are zero for butter (except £10,000 for "private storage aid"), skimmed milk powder and wheat.

2/8 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

Another WTO meeting, another exchange of accusations about the invasion of Ukraine, followed by business (almost) as usual.

This time it was sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS, food safety, animal/plant health) Mar 24-25.

1/6 wto.org/english/tratop… According to Geneva sources, Ukraine's statement included the question: how can it ensure standards are observed when its cities are almost wiped off the face of the earth.

🇦🇺🇨🇦🇪🇺🇯🇵🇰🇷🇳🇿🇳🇴🇵🇾🇬🇧🇺🇸 (name the flag) backed Ukraine

Russia said politics was not part of WTO work

2/6

Some initial thoughts on the compromise text produced by India, the EU, South Africa and the US, allowing most developing countries to suspend some patent rights for COVID-19 vaccines.

In this ⬇️: Broad implications (pandemic, WTO), and specifics

1/5 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/03/17/qua… The text itself is here⬇️. It’s still unofficial, still has to be considered, approved and possibly amended by the WTO’s full membership. Any decision will be by consensus.

We still speak of the #TRIPSwaiver, but it's now a “decision”, not a waiver.

2/5 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/text-g4-trips-…

If confirmed, a major breakthrough.

We need to see the details, whether the Commission can persuade EU member states, and how the rest of the WTO react.

It's only vaccines, only for developing countries that exported <10 % of world COVID-19 exports in 2021.

Details in the 🧵

https://twitter.com/ashleighfurlong/status/1503799100214583300

That's COVID-19 vaccines exports, of course