@CoppetainPU's Threads
"It’s not that difficult."
Mini-thread
Mini-thread
This is where the (a) and (b) come from
And here is another response.
I am flabbergasted that Art24 is edging to centre stage of the leadership campaign.
Can we all agree to kill it? Art24 doesn't matter. It's the content—what can be negotiated and when—that matter
I am flabbergasted that Art24 is edging to centre stage of the leadership campaign.
Can we all agree to kill it? Art24 doesn't matter. It's the content—what can be negotiated and when—that matter
First the good news.
We have a better explanation of GATT Article 24 from ardent Leavers, @MPIainDS and @DCBMEP.
Their description of Art24 is mainly correct. Mainly.
And the bad news? I’ll come to that in a few of tweets.
1/24
We have a better explanation of GATT Article 24 from ardent Leavers, @MPIainDS and @DCBMEP.
Their description of Art24 is mainly correct. Mainly.
And the bad news? I’ll come to that in a few of tweets.
1/24
THE GOOD NEWS
1. They largely get GATT Art24 right. They define GATT Art24 as the WTO rule that allows free trade agreements. They even refer to GATT Art1.
Quibbles: a. it’s only about trade in GOODS, not services. b. You don’t “lower” quotas.
2/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
1. They largely get GATT Art24 right. They define GATT Art24 as the WTO rule that allows free trade agreements. They even refer to GATT Art1.
Quibbles: a. it’s only about trade in GOODS, not services. b. You don’t “lower” quotas.
2/24
brexitcentral.com/the-facts-abou…
2. @DCBMEP is no longer describing GATT Art24 as something to use in an emergency 👇🏾. (He blocked me when I pointed out this was wrong)
Everyone now accepts there has to be a deal. We are not talking about "no deal".
3/24
Everyone now accepts there has to be a deal. We are not talking about "no deal".
3/24
I thought/hoped it would die away, but it's become headline news—the favourite to be UK PM wants to use it …
So here are answers to frequently & rarely asked questions about GATT Art24.
1. General
2. With-deal leavers
3. No-deal leavers
4. Remainers/revokers *SURPRISE*
1 /21
So here are answers to frequently & rarely asked questions about GATT Art24.
1. General
2. With-deal leavers
3. No-deal leavers
4. Remainers/revokers *SURPRISE*
1 /21
1. IN GENERAL
a. DOES GATT COVER SERVICES?
No. GATT only deals with trade in goods.
If you only talk about GATT Art24, you are excluding any agreement in services.
The equivalent is GATS Art 5
wto.org/english/docs_e…
2 /21
a. DOES GATT COVER SERVICES?
No. GATT only deals with trade in goods.
If you only talk about GATT Art24, you are excluding any agreement in services.
The equivalent is GATS Art 5
wto.org/english/docs_e…
2 /21
b. START WITH GATT ART1 (some do, many don’t) — non-discrimination between trading partners.
If UK allows imports duty-free from EU, it must do the same “immediately” for all other WTO members, except …
(“contracting parties” now = WTO members)
3 /21
wto.org/english/docs_e…
If UK allows imports duty-free from EU, it must do the same “immediately” for all other WTO members, except …
(“contracting parties” now = WTO members)
3 /21
wto.org/english/docs_e…
For heaven's sake John Humphrys @BBCr4today if you're going to ask Mark Carney about GATT Art24 why on earth don't you find out first what it is? It's about free trade agreements in goods. Doesn't apply with no deal.
Thread
Thread
Here it is wto.org/english/res_e/…
Here's an explanation tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/16/one…
The morning after.
Boris Johnson, the current leader in the race to be the next UK Prime Minister, called for a “standstill” in trading relations with the EU to avoid tariffs & quotas if there’s no deal.
#BBCOurNextPM, June 18, 2019.
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… (From 22’50”)
1/10
Boris Johnson, the current leader in the race to be the next UK Prime Minister, called for a “standstill” in trading relations with the EU to avoid tariffs & quotas if there’s no deal.
#BBCOurNextPM, June 18, 2019.
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0… (From 22’50”)
1/10
![Quote: I’ll give you the answer. The answer is that there will be no tariffs and there will be no quotas. Because what we want to do is to get a standstill in our current arrangements, under GATT24 or whatever it happens to be, until such time as we have negotiated the FTA. And it’s in the context of that free trade agreement that we come up with the facilitation … [drowned out]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9a3D9EWsAA4JNl.png)
This raises two sets of questions.
1. Timing — when would this be negotiated with the EU? Before or after October 31?
2. Content — what exactly would be “stood still”?
2/10
1. Timing — when would this be negotiated with the EU? Before or after October 31?
2. Content — what exactly would be “stood still”?
2/10
1. Timing.
We need to remember that there is already a “standstill” deal on the table. It’s the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, it comes under GATT Art24.
So if a new “standstill” is going to be radically different, how long would it take to negotiate?
3/10
We need to remember that there is already a “standstill” deal on the table. It’s the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, it comes under GATT Art24.
So if a new “standstill” is going to be radically different, how long would it take to negotiate?
3/10
This is promising.
The leading candidate to be next PM thinks on Oct 31 the UK can leave the EU and immediately the two can keep the status quo under "GATT 24".
The leading candidate is in for a shock. A GATT Art 24 deal has to be negotiated first
(See my blog)
#BBCOurNextPM
The leading candidate to be next PM thinks on Oct 31 the UK can leave the EU and immediately the two can keep the status quo under "GATT 24".
The leading candidate is in for a shock. A GATT Art 24 deal has to be negotiated first
(See my blog)
#BBCOurNextPM
Johnson said a "standstill" post-Oct31 exit ("GATT24"). How does that work?
1. What stands still? Only tariffs? Non-tariff barriers (EU standards/regs)? ECJ adjudication? Services?
2. Can it be negotiated with the EU? Before Oct31?
3. Will EU agree? No👇🏽
1. What stands still? Only tariffs? Non-tariff barriers (EU standards/regs)? ECJ adjudication? Services?
2. Can it be negotiated with the EU? Before Oct31?
3. Will EU agree? No👇🏽
More considered thoughts
A “WTO deal”? As in a “WTO-deal” Brexit?
Never heard of it.
Until recently.
So I pondered what it might mean.
I came up with this answer:
via @YouTube
Never heard of it.
Until recently.
So I pondered what it might mean.
I came up with this answer:
via @YouTube
The video is now linked from this blog page, which includes some elaboration and source links in the text
2/3
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/06/17/wto…
2/3
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/06/17/wto…
And on the same theme, here's an old thread. "WTO rules" means more than many people think, particularly for Brexit.
3/3
3/3
Guess what? GATT Art24.
Actually, Art24 is not "obscure". Everyone uses it.
It's the *interim* version that's obscure.
@MalmstromEU has now rubbished the idea that the EU will agree quickly to a simple one, while it negotiates a final one with the UK.
1/3
By @tgemiles
Actually, Art24 is not "obscure". Everyone uses it.
It's the *interim* version that's obscure.
@MalmstromEU has now rubbished the idea that the EU will agree quickly to a simple one, while it negotiates a final one with the UK.
1/3
By @tgemiles
Why isn't GATT Art24 "obscure"?
It's the WTO rule governing all free trade agreements in goods, including the EU Customs Union.
The WTO's database lists 264 currently-active agreements all over the world that have been notified under GATT Art24.
rtais.wto.org
3/3
It's the WTO rule governing all free trade agreements in goods, including the EU Customs Union.
The WTO's database lists 264 currently-active agreements all over the world that have been notified under GATT Art24.
rtais.wto.org
3/3
India has submitted a new proposal in the WTO fisheries subsidies negotiations.
It only proposes exemptions for developing countries from proposed disciplines on subsidies (eg for fuel) for unreported and unregulated fishing
1/3
Available here: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
It only proposes exemptions for developing countries from proposed disciplines on subsidies (eg for fuel) for unreported and unregulated fishing
1/3
Available here: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
This dovetails with China's proposal circulated 10 days ago, which proposed "capping" fisheries subsidies (3 options for how the caps would be calculated) and a "green box" for listing uncapped subsidies.
Developing countries' treatment left open
2/3
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Developing countries' treatment left open
2/3
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Details of the WTO fisheries subsidies talks are here: wto.org/english/tratop…
A Doha Round issue, the talks now aim to adopt an agreement on fisheries subsidies at the 2020 Ministerial Conference, and delivers on Sustainable Development Goal 14.6 (sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg14)
3/3
A Doha Round issue, the talks now aim to adopt an agreement on fisheries subsidies at the 2020 Ministerial Conference, and delivers on Sustainable Development Goal 14.6 (sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg14)
3/3
Forgive me for being puzzled by this claim that the UK-S.Korea agreement provides “total” continuity.
This text is not available yet. But so far the agreements with major trading partners don’t seem to be “total”. Am I missing something?
Thread, 1/13
This text is not available yet. But so far the agreements with major trading partners don’t seem to be “total”. Am I missing something?
Thread, 1/13
For a start, deals with Switzerland, & with Norway/Iceland, do not cover services.
The one with Switzerland is only “total” for goods during the Withdrawal Agreement’s transition, not if the UK & EU have no deal, and not beyond the WA’s transition.
2/13
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
The one with Switzerland is only “total” for goods during the Withdrawal Agreement’s transition, not if the UK & EU have no deal, and not beyond the WA’s transition.
2/13
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
What about Norway & Iceland? All the documents and a report to the UK Parliament are here: gov.uk/government/col…
These are some extracts of what the report to Parliament says. On services:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3/13
These are some extracts of what the report to Parliament says. On services:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3/13
1. Either
a. The UK trades with all, including the EU, under WTO rules—that's a fact
Or
b. The UK has free trade agreements with the EU, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Japan, Canada, S Korea and dozens more
And
The US and China also have FTAs with neighbours and many others
a. The UK trades with all, including the EU, under WTO rules—that's a fact
Or
b. The UK has free trade agreements with the EU, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Japan, Canada, S Korea and dozens more
And
The US and China also have FTAs with neighbours and many others
2. Here are China's free trade agreements. Note how many are with China's neighbours in the Asia-Pacific region.
No one trades only on basic WTO terms, and trade agreements with neighbours matter.
fta.mofcom.gov.cn/english/index.…
No one trades only on basic WTO terms, and trade agreements with neighbours matter.
fta.mofcom.gov.cn/english/index.…
3. And here's the list of US free trade agreements. Note how many are with neighbours or near neighbours. The biggest is NAFTA/USCMA with Canada and Mexico
No one trades only on basic WTO terms. For the US trade with neighbours matters immensely.
/ends
ustr.gov/trade-agreemen…
No one trades only on basic WTO terms. For the US trade with neighbours matters immensely.
/ends
ustr.gov/trade-agreemen…
China has circulated a new paper in the WTO fisheries subsidies negotiations, a timely reminder that members want proposals consolidated into a single draft text by the end of July.
wto.org/english/news_e…
1/2
wto.org/english/news_e…
1/2
The new Chinese paper proposes three methods for "capping" fisheries subsidies, without specifying yet what those caps should be.
It also proposes "Green Box" subsidies, which would be uncapped, and special treatment for developing countries.
2/2
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
It also proposes "Green Box" subsidies, which would be uncapped, and special treatment for developing countries.
2/2
docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
P.S. Note that setting subsidy limits as a percentage of a base period figure (money paid, catch size, or workforce size) means those limits are fixed even while the industry expands or population/workforce grows
Right. I'm busy today, so today's Article 24 bulletin is before lunch.
This time it's about something a professor in international economic law has written, @davidcollinslaw of City, University of London
1/5
brexitcentral.com/the-next-pm-sh…
This time it's about something a professor in international economic law has written, @davidcollinslaw of City, University of London
1/5
brexitcentral.com/the-next-pm-sh…
This is what @davidcollinslaw wrote.
1. There's no such thing as an interim agreement “in principle”. Either the UK & EU agree or they don't.
2. What’s the advantage of an “interim” agreement? It could be a final one replaced later. Simpler.
3. …
2/5
brexitcentral.com/the-next-pm-sh…
1. There's no such thing as an interim agreement “in principle”. Either the UK & EU agree or they don't.
2. What’s the advantage of an “interim” agreement? It could be a final one replaced later. Simpler.
3. …
2/5
brexitcentral.com/the-next-pm-sh…
3. The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) Art5 does NOT include an interim agreement.
4. If it’s “virtually frictionless trade” why replace it with a “final” deal? A short-term deal while negotiating a better one is bound to be inadequate
3/5
brexitcentral.com/the-next-pm-sh…
4. If it’s “virtually frictionless trade” why replace it with a “final” deal? A short-term deal while negotiating a better one is bound to be inadequate
3/5
brexitcentral.com/the-next-pm-sh…
Apparently we’re going to be locked in debates about GATT Art24 forever, even when it’s not mentioned.
Now it's @andrealeadsom’s turn.
(I'm not giving a link to the rag she chose to promote this)
Leadsom wants a “specific … agreement” on “tariffs” in medicines and agrifoods
Now it's @andrealeadsom’s turn.
(I'm not giving a link to the rag she chose to promote this)
Leadsom wants a “specific … agreement” on “tariffs” in medicines and agrifoods
And here’s the relevant part of GATT Art24 — paragraph 8.
Considering how Art24 has now become a centre-piece of Brexit, politicians should be thoroughly familiar with it.
You can't have a tariff agreement only in medicines and agrifoods.
@andrealeadsom, please read this 👇🏾
Considering how Art24 has now become a centre-piece of Brexit, politicians should be thoroughly familiar with it.
You can't have a tariff agreement only in medicines and agrifoods.
@andrealeadsom, please read this 👇🏾
And here's a link to the full text of GATT Art24 complete with jurisprudence
cc: @andrealeadsom
wto.org/english/res_e/…
cc: @andrealeadsom
wto.org/english/res_e/…
Interesting conversation here. It splits into strands as people reply to different tweets.
Raises a number of questions.
1. Is it enough to challenge "no deal" on the grounds it can be seriously damaging to the economy or some parts of the economy? (Response: "project fear")
Raises a number of questions.
1. Is it enough to challenge "no deal" on the grounds it can be seriously damaging to the economy or some parts of the economy? (Response: "project fear")
2. Do people really see "no deal" as an end-state relationship with the EU? (Sometimes "yes" because some people think that's just trading on WTO terms, which they think is good. Sometimes "no" because they think this will force the EU to cave in to whatever the UK demands)
3. Can we blame journalists and politicians for failing to respond to every false detail? Eg, is it journalists' fault that they don't know what GATT Art24 says or the difference between an interim & final free trade agreement? (In general "no". But when it becomes a big issue…)
Today’s 🇨🇭 federal-level referendums (1). Looks like the government and most parties are going to win this one. A loss for the gun lobby and the far right Swiss People's Party (UDC/SVP/PPS)
Update based on latest count and projections: swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-may-1…
Today’s 🇨🇭 federal-level referendums (2). The government and most parties are winning this one too. Some difficult decisions on creating a level playing field in corporate tax while financing pensions. A loss for the far left
Perhaps it’s time for programmes like @bbcr4today (and @bbcpm) to do a short item on GATT Art.24 (and GATS Art.5, too).
It keeps being wrongly cited as here👇🏾, or by Richard Tice/Nigel Farage/the Brexit Party, or in the “Malthouse compromise”
1/7
It keeps being wrongly cited as here👇🏾, or by Richard Tice/Nigel Farage/the Brexit Party, or in the “Malthouse compromise”
1/7
This would get rid—once and for all—of the idea that GATT Art24 is a solution to “no deal”. No! It requires a deal.
It would also stop the senseless practice of citing a technicality no one will check in order to *appear* scholarly & authoritative.
2/7
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/06/war…
It would also stop the senseless practice of citing a technicality no one will check in order to *appear* scholarly & authoritative.
2/7
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/06/war…
This 👇🏾 is totally wrong.
GATT Art 24 means there’s a deal.
A deal the EU and UK both agree on.
There already is one (sort of). It’s called the Withdrawal Agreement.
3/7
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/06/war…
GATT Art 24 means there’s a deal.
A deal the EU and UK both agree on.
There already is one (sort of). It’s called the Withdrawal Agreement.
3/7
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/06/war…
I don't recall American farmers being "forgotten".
Let me check.
1/6
Let me check.
1/6
Here's the American Farm Bureau Federation, "the voice of agricultural producers at all levels"
2018 Farm Bill. $428bn for 5 years, $867bn for 10.
2/6
fb.org/market-intel/r…
2018 Farm Bill. $428bn for 5 years, $867bn for 10.
2/6
fb.org/market-intel/r…
And here's the US government (US Dept of Agriculture). Same numbers.
3/6
ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-ec…
3/6
ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-ec…
This has popped up again. I wouldn't RT.
If we're going to debate tariffs, let's be absolutely clear.
"WTO tariffs" don't exist.
Both sets are "EU tariffs".
The 0% apply to imports inside the EU & from free trade partners. The others are EU tariffs on imports from elsewhere.
If we're going to debate tariffs, let's be absolutely clear.
"WTO tariffs" don't exist.
Both sets are "EU tariffs".
The 0% apply to imports inside the EU & from free trade partners. The others are EU tariffs on imports from elsewhere.
Repeat after me:
There's no such thing as WTO tariffs
There's no such thing as WTO tariffs
There's no such thing as WTO tariffs
These are both EU tariffs
These are both EU tariffs
These are both EU tariffs
Why are they EU tariffs? See the next tweet
There's no such thing as WTO tariffs
There's no such thing as WTO tariffs
There's no such thing as WTO tariffs
These are both EU tariffs
These are both EU tariffs
These are both EU tariffs
Why are they EU tariffs? See the next tweet
Here's why they are EU tariffs.
They are the EU's tariffs based on its commitments in the WTO. No one else in the WTO has these tariffs.
(Technical note: "based on" = average MFN applied rates, not bound rates)
Just so you know.
wto.org/english/res_e/…
They are the EU's tariffs based on its commitments in the WTO. No one else in the WTO has these tariffs.
(Technical note: "based on" = average MFN applied rates, not bound rates)
Just so you know.
wto.org/english/res_e/…
A perfect example of Nigel Farage (1) refusing to listen (2) refusing to let others speak (3) denying he said something that he did say (about Norway and Switzerland, and on @bbcquestiontime).
He had said it on #bbcqt. It's a running issue. Shouldn't #bbcqt have been prepared?
He had said it on #bbcqt. It's a running issue. Shouldn't #bbcqt have been prepared?
Sorry to bang on about last night's @bbcquestiontime.
Fiona Bruce failed to get beyond the level of "stop bickering".
One of the issues at the heart of this is truth v untruth. She was unwilling to let participants debate that, so Farage in particular got away with lots of fibs
Fiona Bruce failed to get beyond the level of "stop bickering".
One of the issues at the heart of this is truth v untruth. She was unwilling to let participants debate that, so Farage in particular got away with lots of fibs
At least he's changed "WTO leaders" to "very senior people".
Yes, the WTO wd encourage UK & EU to have a GATT Art24 agreement because that means *having a deal* (any deal) on goods. They'd also encourage a GATS Art5 deal on services.
So not "no deal". There must be a deal
1/2
Yes, the WTO wd encourage UK & EU to have a GATT Art24 agreement because that means *having a deal* (any deal) on goods. They'd also encourage a GATS Art5 deal on services.
So not "no deal". There must be a deal
1/2
P.S.
Five thoughts on Brexit, from the Easter break, re-published
1. After all the frantic to-ing and fro-ing, almost nothing has changed for Britain
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/24/fiv…
1. After all the frantic to-ing and fro-ing, almost nothing has changed for Britain
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/24/fiv…
2. Nearly three years of political debate has failed to produce better-informed arguments
Second of five thoughts on Brexit, from the Easter break, re-published
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/24/fiv…
Second of five thoughts on Brexit, from the Easter break, re-published
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/24/fiv…
3. If those past three years were bad, what lies ahead is going to be worse
Third of five thoughts on Brexit, from the Easter break, re-published
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/24/fiv…
Third of five thoughts on Brexit, from the Easter break, re-published
tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/04/24/fiv…
This 👇🏾. Absolutely.
Actually, a bit more than “both”.
Some thoughts on what the English local elections might actually tell us. (NI is different, and results aren’t out yet). A thread.
1/10
Actually, a bit more than “both”.
Some thoughts on what the English local elections might actually tell us. (NI is different, and results aren’t out yet). A thread.
1/10
The vote against Tories & Labour may ➡️2 different/overlapping frustrations about Brexit:
1. Brexit hasn’t happened—mainly among committed Brexiters
2. Politicians are making a mess of it—including from people who don’t have strong feelings either way, just want to move on
2/10
1. Brexit hasn’t happened—mainly among committed Brexiters
2. Politicians are making a mess of it—including from people who don’t have strong feelings either way, just want to move on
2/10
It’s important to distinguish between the two. Type 2 frustration (impatience about incompetence) says nothing about the kind of Brexit and could even be remedied with “Remain” or any form of soft Brexit so long as it was decisive.
3/10
3/10
New WTO ruling: the way China manages tariff quotas (low/zero duty on limited imports) on farm products violates WTO rules — the process fails to be transparent, predictable and fair, and could impede trade.
This is a summary of the panel's findings
1/2
wto.org/english/tratop…
This is a summary of the panel's findings
1/2
wto.org/english/tratop…
The panel ruling is the first stage of a dispute. It's unclear whether China and the US want to, or are going to be able to appeal the findings.
Download the summaries and full report here: wto.org/english/news_e…
Full WTO coverage of this dispute: wto.org/english/tratop…
2/2
Download the summaries and full report here: wto.org/english/news_e…
Full WTO coverage of this dispute: wto.org/english/tratop…
2/2
