Thread by @sailorrooscout

If there is one thing I am going to tell you today it is to IGNORE the media and the clickbait headlines on this new variant. There is NO plausible scenario this will take us back to square one and there is a lot of misinformation currently circulating. Working on a thread now.

Just a friendly reminder. Despite what you might hear, there has yet to be a variant that isn’t susceptible to the vaccines.

Let’s talk about Nu (B.1.1.529) clear up some misconceptions, and talk about why it is unlikely it will evade vaccine-induced immunity. 🧵

Why are variants unlikely to FULLY evade vaccine-induced immunity?
•Vaccines are POLYCLONAL
•CD8+ T-cells covering 52 epitopes across the spike protein
•CD4+ T-cells covering 23 epitopes across the spike protein
For more on this see: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

So, let’s get a couple of things straight NO ONE knows if it is more transmissible at this point. Seeing “Nu is 500% more transmissible” with no data and maybe a bad interpretation of a graph? Yeah, someone is yanking your chain. Also it is NOT a new virus, it is A VARIANT of the

same SARS-COV-2 virus we have been dealing with for almost 2 years now. Stop that. Give me a break. To those saying it is “outcompeting” Delta. Important thing to keep in mind: there hasn’t been much Delta to displace or “outcompete.” Until last week, South Africa was at its

lowest incidence rate since the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, the low incidence of Delta in South Africa kinda means that Nu becoming dominant is weaker evidence of it “outcompeting” it when there really wasn’t much to outcompete so to speak.

You can see for yourself here. With relatively low cases, this may left a void which a new variant could spread into more easily- it likely hasn't had to compete with Delta and in other countries where Delta rages on, it very well may not be as fit.

Secondly, we can’t predict virus behavior in its entirety from mutations. Yes, I know the number of mutations is off-putting BUT more mutations ≠ BAD. We have seen other alarming variants that have failed to spread as widely in the past.

Next, I want everyone to know this now, we don’t know if there are other factors that may be helping this to spread. South Africa has a LOW VACCINATION RATE. We are talking about 24% FULLY VACCINATED and this DESPERATELY needs to be fixed.

Vaccine equity is vital. Variants pop up out of low vaccinated areas. Immune evasion may not be needed to spread and fitness could EASILY differ in higher-vaccinated countries, and those dominated by Delta. I also recommend reading this thread here:

In regards to those who were infected with Nu, some data has come out regarding the status of some individuals, specifically out of Hong Kong. Vaccinated fully with Pfizer back in May/June, the individual is currently ASYMPTOMATIC. You can read more here:

So, what data DO we have? From this extremely informative thread from it is likely we WILL NOT see Nu FULLY escape vaccine-elicited antibodies, and therefore likely little issues with severe disease. Which IS encouraging. READ THIS:

These vaccines are polyclonal, there are non-neutralizing antibodies, and T-CELLS. Will the vaccines take a hit? Likely. as they do with ALL variants. Will it completely render these useless? Absolutely not. For those saying Nu decimates these vaccines to 30% efficacy? Stop that.

TLDR: YES, we need more data. NO, we are NOT going back to square one. The BEST thing you can do right is to GET VACCINATED. GET THE WORLD VACCINATED. GET BOOSTED, it not only restores it EXCEEDS. It is time we stop tripping up over our own feet. This DOESN’T need to be so hard.

Angelique Coetzee, chairperson of the South African Medical Association: “It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible but so far the cases we are seeing are EXTREMELY MILD.” theguardian.com/world/2021/nov…

Update on the case in Belgium. Unvaccinated and developed flu-like symptoms after being infected with Nu but NO WORSE symptoms 11 days after returning from Egypt. NO other symptomatic individuals in their household. assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/…

Minister of Health of South Africa: There is NO EVIDENCE that the Nu variant evades our current vaccines.

Mathivha was VERY careful to describe "partially vaccinated" as those with just ONE dose of mRNA. Even without a booster, 0% of those currently hospitalized are FULLY vaccinated (two doses of mRNA). This is VERY encouraging. The vaccines ARE working.

Yes, I am aware they have changed it to Omicron from Nu. This thread was written before that announcement. Just know this entire thread is in regards to Omicron (B.1.1.529).

South Africa's Health Minister says, based on a small sample of Omicron cases, the majority of hospital patients are unvaccinated: "It indicates that the vaccines ARE providing protection.” . Let’s stay calm but vigilant. businessinsider.com/omicron-corona…