Thread by @pieterstreicher

1 of 6:

6 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

With only light restrictions in South Africa, the load on hospitals remain much lighter compared to Delta.

My expected peak range from 12-22 December might be too conservative.

2 of 6:

In the next 3 days, we should be able to a more accurate prediction for the peak.

Total hospital beds could be less than half of Delta levels (4,500 vs 9,200).

3 of 6:

Looking at more severe outcomes the gap is even larger.

ICU beds might peak at less than 570, almost 3x lower compared to the Delta peak.

4 of 6:

Ventilated beds only started increasing today. The peak is likely to be below 140, more than 6 x lower compared to the Delta peak.

An increase in deaths in week 48 is now evident - 3 deaths / day higher compared to the lowest point in week 45.

5 of 6:

If Gauteng peaks before 12 December, I would have to revise down all these predictions. This is now a distinct possibility and will soon become clear.

All eyes are now on the Tshwane district which will peak 5 days before Gauteng.

6 of 6:

International travel restrictions on Southern Africa need to be dropped immediately. If Omicron replaces Delta, it will reduce deaths.

While the analysis is mostly my own, it is based on data from the NICD.

nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…